At What Point Is A Match Largely Decided?


Move 8, who will win? Area counting, komi is 6.5.

Answer

KataGo - Game ID 30367129 (run kata1)
This is a katago training game. I just went to the katago website and picked the first 9x9 game I saw. At this point black winrate was 80%. Around move 35 the percentage went back to about 50%. Finally white won by killing everything.

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When I look at that I think White has won. White owns two corners, at least. White has the advantage of Komi, so unless White makes some mistakes costing them territory, I assume at this point that White will win. The fact that KataGo thinks Black has an 80% chance of winning at this point is ridiculous to my human mind. Simultaneously, it also makes perfect sense as I’ve seen KataGo give huge percentages to one side or the other when the board is in the early stages of development.

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For context, with 6.5 komi KataGo gives black ~85% winrate from the empty 9x9 board :slightly_smiling_face:

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We could apply the procedure that I suggested above (see At What Point Is A Match Largely Decided? - #8 by yebellz) using KataGo training games and KataGo as the judge.

For each value of X, how many training games does KataGo correctly guess the winner from observing the first X moves?

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While reading this thread I was also thinking in KataGo, but using it with professional games and check at which move his winning probability crosses 90% on average.

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I realized that as well. It makes total sense since Katago thinks 7 is the “correct” komi for area counting.

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