I have been looking for a while and found nothing, is there a graph somewhere of the average rank gain/curve over time? The average over all players, that is, such as “After one month the average player is 20k”, “After 10 years the average player is 4d” or something.
The problem is that the average player does not play go at all after 10 years.
But … but … but … wouldn’t “the average player”, per definition, only be a person who actually plays?
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Also 4 dan is not realistic at all. The result would probably be some kyu number
Well, I am thinking about the likely use of the skill curve. And the likely use seems to me to be “how long to be shodan?”.
Perhaps adding a field to the user profile like “Playing Go Since: XX”. See http://ogs.uservoice.com/forums/277766-online-go-com-suggestions-and-feature-requests/suggestions/6874358-add-member-since-information-to-profile
When I originally learned (LONG ago), I played steadily (nearly daily) in Japan… I had a teacher and coach and studied books and talked w/ others about progress. It is definitely possible, with coaching, to rise to 1-2 kyu level or even Shodan w/in 1 year, if you’re diligent.
It also matters where you are playing… Ranks in live games aren’t the same as those in online worlds… live ratings are probably 2-3 stones lower… so in the late 90s, while I was a US AGA 2 dan, online at the time I was 1-2 kyu. A Shodan on Korean or Panda Net is probably what used to be 2-3 dan in Japan or US clubs, at that probably takes at least a couple of years.
Note that Shodan essentially says, “I am competent with the basics”.
IF I play regularly, I expect I can get back to online Shodan in about a year… I don’t know if I’m going to invest that time or not.
I would expect a fast learner with a coach could rise to 10kyu in 3 months and 6 kyu in 3 more months…
Not sure this would necessarily give any usable information … I, for example, first encountered Go when I was seven, in 1963, and there have been several looooooong pauses where I didn’t play, some of them over a decade <shrug>
well, not sure how usable it is but it would tell us you are old… 
(Says the young guy in is 50’s)
I don’t think there is a simple way to provide the insight @Hakkniv is trying to find. May have some data points, but you are right, everyone has very different paths and different stories to tell. Which all really makes this such a great game.
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One possible way to get a rough estimate could be to take the joining dates of everyone on OGS and then compare them to their rank graphs. Compiling all this data would get the average OGS rank/time, but this does not account for people who started go somewhere other than OGS (Most People I think). So there could be an option to set the time you started playing go, and maybe even set your rank at a few points over time. This could give some interesting insight even with just a moderate sample size.
Awhile back I did some statistics using the EGF ratings list:
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Yeah, that is pretty interesting. I would be interested to see that kind of thing for OGS, as well as a graph of the overall time it took people to get there in the first place as well. This could be an interesting thing to research.
Note that EGF can only gather data from players who play actively in EGF rated tournaments, and by gut feeling i could say it’s only a small portion - when there is those who like to attend tournaments and improve their skills, there is vast majority that stay at their current rank year after year due “having something more important to do than tournaments and tsumegos” xD
So instead of counting how long has somebody played go, maybe the correct question would be how intensely one tries to develop their skills and get better
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This is pretty cool!
I don’t know whats scarier: that only 1.6% “make” it from DDK to Dan or that it takes 4 years on average… uh oh, I have a long way to go still.