2025: Let's try again

I can see how this may be the case in the US where there are basically only 2 political parties. With so little choice, many voters will inevitable vote for the same party again and again. Many of them will eventually start identifying themselves with that party, and tribalism sets in.

But in the Netherlands (and I suspect many European countries that have proportional representation and coalition governments), new parties rise and fall all the time, party splits and mergers also happen fairly frequently.
Like if some specific wing of a political party is unhappy about the party line, they regularly split off to create a new party. In recent decades PVV and TON split off from VVD, NSC and BBB split off from CDA, Denk and LPF split off from PvdA. Though many of those split offs are short-lived, some survive for longer.
Party mergers also happen now and then. CDA was the result of a merger between many Christian parties and currently PvdA and Groenlinks are in the process of merging.
Also, significant parts of the electorate move from one party to another, from one election to another.
So I think there is less political tribalism here. Voters and politicians are not as entrenched with their support for one specific party.

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On pro-democrat NBC News, the journalist asked a question about identity politics. Malcom Kenyatta’s non-response:

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The USA is hardly only interesting/important in terms of foreign policy though. :thinking: It is the international “trend-setter” as far as “the West” goes, in terms of a lot of cultural and technological things.

The USA - not only the government, but also organisations, interest groups and individuals - funds or sustains (monetarily or ideologically) quite a few things that happen in many places in the world.
And it is out in the open, this is no conspiracy by the way.

Things vary from “small shows” like this:
https://www.reuters.com/article/world/far-right-millennials-set-out-to-sea-to-defend-europe-from-migrants-idUSKBN1A61J5/

North American conservative YouTube pundits Lauren Southern and Brittany Pettibone are also supposed to go on their sea mission, but no mainstream news outlets will be on board.

To raise money for the operation, the Identitarians launched a website in May and have gathered some $170,000, enough to rent the 40-metre (yard) C-Star, which has been repeatedly delayed on its trip from its home port of Djibouti.

To more important organisations like this:
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2019/12/nra-discloses-spending-on-foreign-fundraising/

The NRA’s tax records show its involvement abroad, expanding to a longer list of regions from the Middle East and Asia to Europe and sub-saharan Africa.

To outright funding a certain agenda globally:

(Disclaimer: To avoid distractions from the main point I want to make clear that I offer no opinion on those - they are just simple examples.)

Again this is nothing new.
First step of influencing and appropriating an area is exporting your culture. Expanding your influence.
It is called grand/high strategy and it is ancient. The Persians did it, the Atheneans did it, Alexander the Great did it, the Romans, the Byzantines (you might remember my post about how the Byzantines affected the area so much that reverbiations of what happened almost a thousand years ago can be found in the current war in Ukraine), the Church, the Arabs, the Conquistadors, the British and so forth.

Social politics are also a significant cultural issue since the americans understand this grand strategy and that exporting their “way of life” is the first step to a lot of other beneficial diplomatic steps/gains.

I do not remember who said it, but I liked the quote that “the first troops on the ground are always Coca-cola, McDonalds and Hollywood”… :sweat_smile:

The USA exports products, music, movies and, let’s face it: LIFESTYLE.
And not only the entertainment kind of lifestyle, but the “real life” educational kind too.
For example:
Where do the standards of psychological assessment come from? The American Psychology Association.
Where do most of the “modern pedagogy theories” come from? You guessed it!

And who is governing the USA matters a lot.
Case in point? Our “free thinking” Prime minister.
When Biden was in power he was harping on about the “tyranny of the majority” and was so much in favor of Diversity and gender studies and what-not, despite being the leader of a very conservative right-wing party (which didn’t like all that at all and many balked at voting for such things).
Trump got elected? Almost the very next day he was suddenly talking about “two genders” and the “tyranny of the minority”. (a quick video proof - half of it is in English)

To be clear, again, I take/express no position on that (in case someone wants to argue on it), but I present it as an example on how the USA sets the direction of the social and cultural compass way outside their physical borders.

In that regard, I’d say that the news only caring and presenting you things that “affect the foreign policy of the US” is very slack (to use a Go term) to the point of incompetence (which is unsurprising for modern news).

It is like a whole new building being built besides your house and not noticing it at all, until it is 99% ready and you finally notice that your view is gone and your garden is now in permanent shade. :sweat_smile:

Is there less political tribalism, or are people simply able to better express their flexibility at the polls?

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From what I hear, nowadays voters here are much less loyal to a party than they were decades ago. I have myself voted for 5 different parties during my lifetime.
I think there is less of a chasm between left and right here (the center is still fairly big), although some parties on the left and the right try to emphasise/exaggerate it to gain votes by increasing apparent tribalism.

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The US is indeed a major source of cultural influence outside its borders, but I’d say that cultural influence is mostly coming from the music industry, the movie industry and science, and the culture they represent is fairly progressive. As far as I can tell, most American artists, actors, directors and scientists are not great fans of Trump (to put it mildly).

On the other hand, the US seems not very successful in exporting the conservative side of its culture (at least not in Western Europe).
Take for example restrictions on abortion and gay rights, book banning in schools, the situation with guns, the situation with health insurance, student debt, food safety, privacy issues with Big Tech, income inequality, lack of worker rights, homelessness, the influence of billionaires, etcetera.
In my country (and I think many other countries in Western Europe at least), I think most people just shake their heads and are relieved they don’t live in the US.

With Trump behaving like an elephant in a china shop domestically and internationally, I think he is alienating many people in Europe even more than he did during his first term. If it continues like this, I expect people here to reduce their purchases of American goods and services. Some politicians in Europe may try to appease Trump to avoid a trade war, but many consumers won’t. Like there are quite a few Tesla owners here who feel ashamed now, basically driving in an advertisement for Musk (and indirectly Trump).

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Money/funding is important too. If you are following the USAID situation you will see that they have been funding a lot of various things in almost any conscievable country in the world (including their own, apparently).

These are fresh news (we can hardly keep up with the sheer volume, by now):

But even if we disregard this and go along with “mostly movies and music”, that’s not a small thing on its own. Just the “pseudo-gangsta” poser culture that the USA off-loaded with rap/trap music in my country would make you cringe.

“Fairly Progressive?” Do you want me to translate some lyrics?
I would but I’d get banned in a minute :sweat_smile:
I’ll let Bill Baily do it instead:

We have enough fake posturing and objectification in our own culture, we didn’t need posers with “money, b–chs, gangs and drugs” in front of a rented Lambo. :stuck_out_tongue:

But back to being serious:

Is it really not? :thinking:
Did I miss any news or are the very right-wing parties still set to win big in the next elections in Germany, France and other places?

For sure, on most of those issues, even here in Greece we are relieve we do not live in the USA. No argument there.

However, you are making a big mistake of underestimating the concept of “grand/high strategy”, by looking at the short term.

If you click on that link I put earlier, you will see that it works long term, by its very design. We are Go players, the idea of looking at the whole board shouldn’t be foreigns to us.

I’ll just present you with one fact and one advice.
The fact:
The Republicans waited and plotted patiently and eroded the issue slowly, but surely, to overturn Roe vs Wade. It took them 49 years (1973-2022).

The advice:
Complacency is not a good idea against such patient people.

Don’t take my word for it. History says so.

Correct me if I am wrong, but if I am not mistaken most conservative parties in Europe improved their numbers during and since his first term. So, is he really “alienating many people in Europe”? :thinking:

We here might think so, but shouldn’t we check the numbers? Just to be sure?

Correlation is not causality.
I don’t think the PVV winning the elections in the Netherlands in 2023 had much to do with influence from Trump or US conservatives on the Dutch electorate. I think the success of The PVV and other anti-immigration parties in Europe are mostly due to (real or perceived) increasing tensions from immigrant flows from the Middle-East and Africa, and those have been going since about 2010, due to various civil wars and other conflicts in those regions.
I think it’s mostly coincidental that the US has increasing tensions from immigration flows across the Mexican border, which gave Trump a boost in the latest US elections.

In a poll from november 2024, 71% of the Dutch population hoped that Harris would win, while only 20% hoped that Trump would win (although 44% expected Trump to win and 26% expected Harris to win). So I think it’s hard to maintain that Trump is popular here.

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That’s what our Prime Minister says too :wink:

In any case, I made my points for our consideration and all we have to do is think and wait.

With the speed things are moving in these modern times, we might not have to wait a lot… back when I was much younger, I was fairly certain that I’d be dead before most things went pear-shaped.

Now, I am not so sure about the timeline…

I just saw your edit:

20% is quite a lot actually.

Says here that 20% is “second place” if it was national election.
Geert Wilders is the “Trump equivalent” for the Netherlands, if I am not mistaken, and he got first place at 23% so the poll numbers check out.

However, if a 23% is solid and gives you first place, that is a significant number.

Our current ruling party has a known “solid core” of 25% of voters. They are either governing or coming second place for the past 50 years (if anyone doubts, there are election result records).

I couldn’t objectively call that kind of record “unpopular”… :thinking:

When most people can differenciate with what they hope/want, with what is most probable to happen, is always a good sign as far as I am concerned. :slight_smile:

But these right-wingers or outright Nazis haven’t been “exported” from the USA, they’ve been in Europe all the time already.

Especially for Germoney I can, sadly, say, that it has never really been de-nazified. Instead, after 1945, the allies partially installed old Nazis in military, justice (and justice teaching in university!), police, industry, secret services :frowning:

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Of course. You do not export the actual people. You encourage and nurture what is already there. The idea is to make them fight for your cause/interests, without them realising it. If you were going to send your own people, that would defeat the whole idea.

If you don’t mind there was a quote I remembered on that issue that went: “The idea of grand strategy is to create good clients. And you never want to damage or eradicate a good client. All you want is to destabilise them just right enough to keep them dependent and constantly buying from you” :wink:

Again, we do not need to get into modern examples which might cause upset and detract from this simple point.
It is recorded history.
Literally centuries of examples.

It would have been surprising if it had. That was the birthplace of the whole word/idea. Such things might go away if they are exported in a totally different culture to which they might be incompatible with, but they can never really be uprooted in such a short time scale from the society that actually gave birth to them.

Wilders is a conservative, a nationalist and an isolationist. So indeed he has similarities with Trump (although Wilders is also different, as Wilders is not a narcissist, not ignorant, not rich, and I can name some more differences).

But to verify your hypothesis that Trump’s success somehow caused Wilders success, I made a timeline of electoral support for Wilders versus Trump’s terms in office:


(I marked Trump’s terms in red)

If anything, it seems like Wilders’ success was waning while Trump was in office (I suspect it has more to do with the disaster that Brexit turned out to be, while Wilders had Nexit as one of his talking points back then), and I don’t see how Wilders’ 2023 election success might be caused by anything that Trump did around that time.
So I think your hypothesis gives Trump too much credit. I think Wilders 2023 election success was largely caused by domestic issues that the previous government failed to handle well, some campaign mistakes from his competitors (most of whom happened to be newly minted party leaders at the time, while Wilders has much experience in that role and he is a skilled debater), and the fact that Rutte didn’t run in those elections.

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I am not really making that point. Maybe I didn’t write it properly, my points regarding this issue are these:

a) Even though the americans cannot really export their exact brand/style of “right wing” because it is incompatible with the current societies here, the right wingers here in Europe are set on a path of improving their numbers and winning elections in different countries. This means that there will be eventual collaboration between those like minded people from USA and Europe. They do not have to agree on everything, but you can expect them to have a similar agenda/policy, in the same way like-minded agendas/policies were followed recently with Biden. This is not an unlikely “conspiracy theory” or anything fringe. It is fairly obvious that politicians of the same political spectrum are more likely to work together and have the same goals.

So, you might not think that there is much “importing of ideas” now, but that might soon change.

Therefore:

b) Complacency is not a good idea.

Sorry for any misunderstandings and for causing you the extra trouble of finding that chart. :slight_smile:

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Indeed 23% is a significant fraction when there are more than a dozen options. But when the choice is limited to only 2 options (like in US elections), 23% is less impressive.

Wilders’ electoral support history implies that his solid core is 10-15%.
I think that sudden jump to 23% in the 2023 elections is not so much from people who suddenly fell in love with the far-right, but more from people who were fed up with the governments we’ve had in recent years, and perhaps even more that Rutte’s VVD party opened the door for Wilders during the final stage of the 2023 election campaign (I think the German CDU party learned from that, so they won’t make that mistake in their current campaign).

Also, I wouldn’t call Wilders a nazi. We have another party further to the right than Wilders who qualify more for that label (they are more inclined to use nazi symbols and promote fascism): FvD (lead by Thierry Baudet).
This is their electoral support history compared to Wilders:


(FvD in dark red)

Thierry hates queers more than muslims. For Wilders it’s the other way around. I guess this illustrates that voters and politicians always have multiple options here, even at the political extremes.

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I don’t follow US (or other countries) domestic politics close enough to evaluate that statement. I can only tell from a Dutch perspective.

For many years far-left and far-right activists here (like Kick Out Zwarte Piet, Extinction Rebellion, Farmers Defence Force, Pegida) try to raise attention for their causes by (for example) blocking important highways during rush hour, burning Qurans, glueing themselves to some high-profile object, intimidating politicians and journalists (sometimes even assaulting them), etc.
Most of those actions are not outright dangerous, but the disruption caused by some of them can sure be a nuisance for hundreds of thousands of people. I suppose most people and politicians feel annoyed by such actions, but they often fall under the constitutional right to demonstrate peacefully (although our current government tries to put more restrictions on this).

For each activist group you can probably find some political parties with similar goals, but they usually distance themselves from the most extreme activists, unless they are a fairly small fringe party anyway (like BIJ1 and FvD) who have little to lose because a significant part of their base already sympathises with those activists (even the more extreme ones).

The most dangerous far-left groups around here (life the RAF) seem to have died-off some decades ago after the Soviet Union collapsed.

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Well, since we were speaking about it a couple of days ago, this is interesting:

For those who will not click on news links:

STATEMENT

A free press is essential to freedom and democracy – and 75% of countries around the world do not have a free press. BBC Media Action supports local media around the world to deliver trusted information to people most in need.

Like many international development organisations, BBC Media Action has been affected by the temporary pause in US government funding, which amounts to about 8% of our income in 2023-24. We’re doing everything we can to minimise the impact on our partners and the people we serve.

As the BBC’s international charity, we are completely separate from BBC News, and wholly reliant on our donors and supporters to carry out our work.

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Well. There’s a saying here:

“The radical left burns cars, the radical right burns people.”

This seems – tendencially – correct to me, at least from what I perceived in the past ~50 years. And the numbers of extremist murders – left vs. right – seem to agree (at least in Germany).

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I think people are not just bodies. Without any research, I would be willing to concede more murders may have been committed historically with far right motives. However our modern world affords much more palatable ways to “burn people” which affords the far left almost equal destructive power while being able to convince themselves they maintain the moral high ground.

Fire and Ice
By Robert Frost

Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.

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https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-effect-tesla-sales-slump-five-european-markets-january-2025-02-04/

Musk has made a high-profile foray into politics, with much of his 2024 dominated by his financial support of Donald Trump

He has also stirred controversy with his vocal support for far-right parties in Britain and Germany on his social media platform X.

a 63% decline in January sales for Tesla in France, drops of 44% and 38% in Sweden and Norway, and a 42% fall in the Netherlands

The drop in Tesla sales in Europe may also have to do with other things (car sales in the Netherlands always drop between December and January because the registration year affects depreciation), but Musk’s behaviour probably didn’t help to keep Tesla sales up. People in Europe can’t vote in US elections, but they can show their (dis)content with their consumer behaviour. And I don’t think the far-right in Europe that Musk tries to appeal to are ardent Tesla buyers.

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I agree that in the West in general in recent decades, mass murders seem more linked to far-right extremists than far-left extremists, but the last political murder in the Netherlands was an animal rights activist assassinating immigration critic Pim Fortuyn in 2002, who was in many ways the predecessor of Wilders, and who was doing very well in the national election campaign at that time (17% and rising in the polls right before he was shot).

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