Basic rank maths questions

[Vsotvep]

@Uberdude

Indeed. I think the new player uncertainty should be MUCH higher, as in 2000 not 350, so that it extends a good way to 30k which is what many of these new players are (and not so many 7ds).

The maths says that the 95% confidence interval of the player’s rank should lie in the interval of 2 deviations apart from the mean, so with a RD of 350 and starting mean of 1150, that means that 95% of the starting players will have a “true” rank in the interval 450 to 1850

Judging by this:

@Allerleirauh

Traditional six-month player distribution by rank:

the actual 95% interval lies between 26k and 2d, which is somewhere about 550 to 2000. I guess this is different from the interval above, because the rank distribution is not a bell curve, but is skewed towards stronger players. I’m not actually sure, and I don’t actually like statistics enough to figure it out.

In any case, if anything, we should keep the RD the same and move the mean of starting players up a bit to get the actual 95% interval.