Huge disparity between the probability of a 1dan defeating a 1kyu between the OGS and AGA ranking systems

Handicap used to be the way to determine relative ranks within a local group. If there is no longer a relation between handicap and ranks nowadays, ranks have little meaning IMO and it might be replaced by pure Elo ratings based on even game winning statistics alone.

But I don’t think things are that bad. Checking EGD statistics of handicap games, handicap according to rank difference does seem to work to even out winning probability:

             Statistics of Handicap Games - strong side all (wins for weak side)
			 
 Gr.         H 1              H 2              H 3              H 4              H 5              H 6              H 7              H 8              H 9     
Diff  Wins   Tot  %    Wins   Tot  %    Wins   Tot  %    Wins   Tot  %    Wins   Tot  %    Wins   Tot  %    Wins   Tot  %    Wins   Tot  %    Wins   Tot  % 
---  ----- ----- ---  ----- ----- ---  ----- ----- ---  ----- ----- ---  ----- ----- ---  ----- ----- ---  ----- ----- ---  ----- ----- ---  ----- ----- ---
  1   2296  5463  42                       1     1 100                                                                                                        
  2   1967  5977  33   1584  4080  39                                                                                                                         
  3   1038  3972  26   1053  3095  34   1091  2829  39                                                                                                        
  4    351  1434  24    642  2473  26    708  2234  32    910  2352  39                                                                                       
  5     80   445  18    213   949  22    484  1798  27    500  1640  30    678  1964  35                                                                      
  6     19   150  13     53   231  23    138   644  21    360  1388  26    380  1202  32    567  1575  36                                                     
  7      4    51   8     12    83  14     36   203  18    102   495  21    295  1097  27    248   891  28    410  1190  34                       1     1 100  
  8      1    18   6      5    38  13     10    63  16     52   181  29     69   398  17    219   807  27    212   720  29    338  1007  34                   
  9      1     7  14      2    18  11      4    35  11     10    72  14     23   110  21     55   333  17    143   575  25    167   509  33    351  1088  32  
 10      3    10  30      2    10  20      0    17   0      5    34  15     16    92  17     16   124  13     31   240  13    110   475  23    307  1231  25  
 11      0     8   0      0     6   0      2    10  20      1    11   9      3    35   9      9    59  15      5    34  15     20   152  13    235  1175  20  
 12      0     1   0      0     1   0      0     4   0      1     5  20      4    24  17     11    55  20      4    24  17      9    38  24    168  1079  16  
 13      0     3   0      0     3   0      1     4  25      0     1   0      3    12  25      2    38   5      0    10   0      3    16  19     92   769  12  
 14      0     2   0      0     2   0                       0     3   0      3     7  43      0    13   0      0    15   0      0     7   0     64   617  10  
 15      1     3  33      0     1   0      0     1   0      0     1   0      2     7  29      0     7   0      0    14   0      0     9   0     32   525   6  
 16      0     3   0      0     1   0      0     2   0      0     1   0      0     1   0      0    11   0      0     2   0      2     5  40     23   380   6  
 17      0     1   0                                                                          0     3   0      0     2   0      0     3   0      9   317   3  
 18                                                                          0     2   0      0    10   0      0     2   0                       5   240   2  
 19                                                                                                            0     3   0      0     1   0      4   184   2  
 20                       0     1   0                                                                                                            6   147   4  
 21                                                                                           0     1   0                                        1    51   2  
 22                                                                                                                                              2    43   5  
 23                                        0     1   0                                                                                           1    13   8  
 24                                                                                                                                              0    13   0  
 25                                                                                                                                              0     4   0  


 N.B.: Games with handicap greater than the difference of grade between opponents have been ignored
 
 Legend: Gr diff.    : difference of grade between opponents
         H <n>       : games with <n> handicap stones
         Wins        : number of wins for the weak side (black)
         Tot         : number of games
         %           : percentage of wins

 records: 737934

Overall, black wins about 45% of properly handicapped games, which is a bit lower than 50%, but that is expected because traditional handicap falls half a stone short of full compensation.

I think OGS posted similar statistics of their handicap games.

Edit: taking data from a longer time period (from 2006). Now black’s winrate is a bit lower (more like 34-42% winrate instead of 45%), suggesting that the handicap fell a bit short to compensate for the skill difference implied by the rank difference, especially for larger handicaps.

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