Sorry I should have been clearer, I meant natural gas not petrolâŠ
What happens if Vladimir Putin invades Ukraine again, the West hits Russia with sanctions, and Mr Putin retaliates by shutting down all the pipelines carrying Russian gas to the West?
A high-stakes commercial negociation, thatâs what it is and thatâs why the âwestern leadersâ are taking their time. No matter how many wind turbines they have under the sun, they will always need to buy gas and wheat and technology and they have proved they are willing to go far for a good deal.
On the other hand, Iâm not sure a âwesternâ ââinterventionââ is a good idea, judging by past examples. Usually, after an ââinterventionââ, it takes 20+ years for a given region to see the end if it, if at all.
I think only WWII is a fair comparison to draw here. With the Asian and Middle Eastern theatres, American inserted itself into regions it wanted to influence. In this case, Ukraine is actually requesting help and likely wonât survive without some major power stepping up.
Yes, of course there is a lot at stake, and things could easily escalate like they did in the great war (and even worse in the nuclear age), but what good are defence agreements if we donât honour them? What good is the UN if we canât even protect people from our own members? There are no easy answers here.
So, what then? Just throw Ukraine under the bus to fend for themselves and admit on the global stage that the UN doesnât mean shit?
The most Western countries could do is to send material to Ukraine and apply economic sanctions. But even economic sanctions may be limited because Europe doesnât want to penalize itself. Of course Putin knows that.
There must be a solution for the region, thatâs for sure.
EU leaders only know how to buy off airports and build turbines, though, and the truth is they are not likely to intervene until they make sure they can get a good deal for energy and/or for the ECT. With the current information, it looks like the best deal can come from Russia, not Ukraine, so they are not very âwarmâ on helping out until they can set the contract details right.
This is my extremely uninformed opinion, I hope matters will settle sooner and for the better, so that not many lives are lost.
I was just thinking of the Balkans which still havenât finished (for real) with the 90âs war aftermath and are not likely to finish soon.
I know this is a bigger discussion, but I will never understand why itâs ânewsâ and absolutely OK to show pictures and videos and stuff from injured and dead bodies.
Maybe it was a novelty 30 years ago, but surely we donât need a stream of closeups of corpses all day long?
The flimsy argument is usually âbut to showcase the hideousness of war to outsidersâ but really, when is it enough? And how come people still donât get it?..
Itâs just disaster-p*** and thereâs people who relish in it, thatâs the barebones explanation.
West wonât call it âwarâ because it canât take it back after agreements are made, but it still feels like war to those involved, Iâm afraid.
Of course I sincerely hope not, but if another refugee crisis comes of this, it will be interesting to see how it will be handled.
Last time no gold stars for humanitarianism, iircâŠ
Why do we emerge from each disaster worse as a species and ready to destroy more?
Rhetorical question.
Even if they send armed forces and do the war thing. They wonât say âwe go to war against Russiaâ. Maybe Iâm already proven wrong, tho, itâs definitely not a slow news dayâŠ
Because politicians are banking on international outrage to do their job.
However this is not 1975 where public outrage was rare.
We live in a perpetual âdaily outrage news cycleâ, so that once powerful weapon has been grinded to a toothpick by over-use.
Funny how things go in circles. I spent half my life, from early youth to the fall of the Berlin Wall fully expecting to die in a nuclear war. I suppose I am one of the few people on OGS who experienced nuclear attack drills in elementary school during the Cuban Missile Crisis. We marched down to the boiler room, which had a concrete block wall and no windows, and hunkered down. Meanwhile, my father was at the Pentagon (ground zero). For years, every first Saturday of the month, at noon, the air raid warning would sound, and I would sprint home from the woods where we played. Then there was the time when the air raid alarm went off at 2 a.m. Supposedly a malfunction, but today I wonder whether it was actually a mistake triggered by our nuclear posture during the Six-Day War.
When the Berlin Wall fell, it seemed that the nuclear Sword of Damocles was removed. The feeling of relief I felt is beyond description. Now here we are again, full circle. Of course, the nuclear danger from all quarters has been increasing for yearsâthis is only the crux.
In my opinion no military option is available to the U.S. Right and wrong doesnât matter, and what we want doesnât matter. The U.S. has no logistical ability to fight a war in Russiaâs backyard. The time for preventives has long passed. Our posture and credibility were destroyed by the Afghanistan catastrophe. At best we may be able to shore up NATO, and that depends largely on the desires of the NATO countries.