2023 Rounds Survival

Well, I think we’re now in a good position to say that @_Sofiam got question 2 the closest. There are, by my count, 1494 players left in (with a possibility of a few more DQs) which is very close to her guess of 1480. My guess of 1800 was wildly optimistic about people playing on time. Answer to question 1 is still a little way away, but I’m feeling good about my guess of 12 days.

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Have you counted also players that resigned?

There are 8 games left now:

I count 1034 disqualifications (mostly timeouts) and 47 resignations. If the 2575 players is right on the tournament page, that gives 1494 players currently in the tournament, including the 16 involved in those 8 games

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Thanks and I’m sorry I didn’t check instead of asking.

I am not sure about the number of players. Now it says 2575 but I am sure it used to show 2574. And here (page two on active correspondence tournaments set to 50 per page) and in the group it says 2573.

Hmmmm, weird. I’ve just checked the tournament page and it lists 2574 players with matchups against opponents, and 1 with a bye, which agrees with the 2575 number at the top. But if it’s something else for some reason it wouldn’t be the first weird bug with tournaments I’ve seen.

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2575 is almost surely the right number then :slight_smile:

When the tournament started PaulMartineau didn’t have a displayed opponent. It could be because some players joined between 00:00 (when the tournament was supposed to start) and 00:24 (when the tournament actually started)

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Does anybody else not see round 3 instead of round 2 started?

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Yeah, it seems something weird happened, and round 2 broke, so we’ve gone on to round 3. In any case, you’ve got a game now

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Seems maybe the scale of this tournament is confusing the sever! :rofl:

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So next year there will be no 2024 Rounds Survival?

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I think the bug that skipped round 2 is causing some other problems.

IIRC, a game in annulled on timeout after max 2 moves are played, right?

More importantly, I tried Documentation and searching the Ogf, is the information about when a game is annulled easily accessible and I just can’t find it?

Oh, and the AI wouldn’t start, I had to kick it.

No, 6 is the new limit.

Games are annulled if they have less than 6 moves, if a moderator annuls them (that it is showed on the game) or if they are part of a series of timeouts or a non-standard tournament (it is not showed, but they aren’t ranked)

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Is this stated somewhere where someone can find it easily? Because I couldn’t, and I imagine it’s harder for people who don’t take part in discussions.

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In my previous message :grin:

Except it, I don’t know and I can’t search now, sorry.

I think you missed the point of my post. I, personally, don’t really care about a game being annulled or not, I just remembered (wrongly) that the threshold is 2 moves.

My point is, it’s kind of important for people to be able to find that information easily. I guess we will end up to the usual I should go github myself, but the point remains, it’s obscure information and my guess is it isn’t easy to find. I mostly know my way around OGS and have a fairly good idea of generally what is discussed in Ogf, and I couldn’t find it.

I’m not saying we have to find it now, or we have to correct it now, or you have to solve this, but it seems like an important thing for people to know.

If you think it’s not important either way :woman_shrugging:

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I think this is when/where/how it was announced. And sorry if my reaction seemes/was “it’s not important”. I guess that’s just because as a moderator player I’m exposed a lot to those things and for me are obvious (and also for all the sandbaggers that resign at move 6 :rofl:) but I can understand that for normal users it’s not easy to find these informations.

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Rounds 4 and 5 have both started.

And I have the same opponent in both rounds.

Round 4: Tournament Game: 2023 Rounds Survival (95975) R:4 (ArsenLapin1 vs json0524)
Round 5: Tournament Game: 2023 Rounds Survival (95975) R:5 (ArsenLapin1 vs json0524)

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We can now answer question 3 of the 10 posed at the start of the tournament. There are 380 players in the 10th round. This is between my answer of 200 and @_Sofiam and @LiuBang10 's answers of 500.

For question 5, we have got through 9 rounds in a little over 3 months, so we are probably headed to something over 30 rounds in a year if we hold this pace or more likely speed up somewhat. We will still probably fall short of my answer of 42, but we should comfortably beat the other answers of 15 and 18.

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For the record: We can now answer question 5. We were on round 30 on the 1st of January 2024. Once again this is between my guess of 42 and the other two of 15 and 18.
The next question we are likely to answer is question 4, how many players will there be in the 100th round. I’ll be back in… probably 2026 to update you.

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It looks to be speeding up a bit though, we are on round 44. So we moved along 14 rounds in 4,5 months, a little over 3 rounds a month. In 2023, we played 2,5 rounds a month.

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