Considering you are younger and British champion, my goal of achieving 3d seems possible. 
We could talk about progress curve.
Here is one of the strongest Italian players, Alessandro Pace.
He went from a self declared rank of 10k in september 2008 to 1d in may 2010.
This is the official European rank based on official tournaments.
So less than two years, but starting with a nice level.
I spent years to get to 10k despite OGS rank history (which says Iâve always been SDK): according to EGD my first tournament was in november 2017 and I declared my rank being 13k. I was already playing on OGS since more then a year before.
Five years later I was 9k, thanks to a little boost when EGF decided to modify their ranks.
Thereâs no rule
6 Likes
Most people are close to their peak after 5 years and reach their peak before 10 years of practice, whatever the peak is.
So Iâll probably never reach 1d EGF. At least there is a âdâ next to my username on several go servers.
5 Likes
Same ):
2 Likes
IME players who reach 1d EGF under 2 years tend to reach 4-7d EGF within 10 years.
Those players exist, but there are many more who take 10+ years to reach 1d, if at all.
6 Likes
Many years ago a study found that it took about 10,000 hours of practice to reach an expert level in a wide range of activities. The remarkable aspect was the consistency they found in different activities. Unfortunately, I donât remember how they defined âexpertâ (or whatever term they used). In classical music, I think the standard was concert-artist level. I estimate that in the 14 years from age 9 to the end of college I put in about 9,490 hours of practice. Of course, that doesnât count rehearsals and performances, so I was probably well over 10,000. Although I was a solid professional musician, I never had the talent to be a concert artist.
The point is that games alone may not be the full or proper measure in go. Time, encompassing games plus study, might be more accurate. Moreover, natural talent seems to be a major requirement as well.
It is also unclear what the comparable âexpertâ level would be for go? Given the foregoing posts, certainly something higher than 1 dan.
Has anyone ever studied whether games alone (like Alpha Zero) or games-plus-study is better, and if so, what the optimal balance of time is between the two.
2 Likes
If someone have good memory, it doesnât matter how to choose what to study next, you will remember both things anyway
but with bad memory if you study joseki (for example), then study tsumego, then you will forget those joseki and need to waste time to memorize them againâŚ
so with bad memory and bad study plan it may take 70 years to reach 1d even if you try hard
Expertâa reproducibly superior performer in a given domain
2 Likes
I think they played at least 4
Iâve been playing for 9 years (Oct. 2013) and never got there, but it would have happened in the last year if I had accepted a promotion to 2d that I was offered or if WAGC had been Class A.
Or if I hadnât lost a game won against a 3d, I was forgetting it!
I will probably never get there.
8 Likes
Here Hajin Lee estimates it took her about 19000 hours to pro.
8 Likes
Looking at these rank charts reminds me of the âcapacitor curveâ (I learnt about that in the âThrough the yearsâ thread).
Looks like everyone has a plateau. At first you improve quicly, then slowly, then youâre stuck at that plateau level.
At a glance Iâd say that Alessandro Pace hasnât reached his plateau yet but heâs near.
I have a lot of room to improve 
but my progresses are super slow.
@Uberdude looks a little more stable than Pace (did you play each other?)
@jlt is still improving
@_Sofiam is near too
I also think that each plateau has probably many reasons (time spent playing and studying, the actual will to improve, health, work, stress and so on), so changing some of them could bring to a new different plateau.
I like this analogy
5 Likes
Family life is priority over go study now. I think if I kept studying I could probably go up 1 dan every 4 years or so to a max of 6d EGF.
Yes, weâve played online in the Pandanet European Team League, and in person at London 2019 just before Covid (I lost both). Also in some BIBA league. Checking EGD I beat him in the 2011 EGC too, didnât remember that, didnât know him back then.
3 Likes
You have good confidence in yourself. These steps are high, much higher as any before. Looking how a 1d difference could crush his opponent on kgs before (when there were much more games to watch) and seeing how many 5d although very motivated never reached to pass the step.
I estimate that players who progress to 1 dan quickly, spent a few 1000 hours of practice, but not quite 10,000 hours. I think 10,000 hours of practice is more a lower bound for 4d EGF level.
I take pro to correspond to 7d EGF.
And then we have AI that practiced 10,000,000 (when converted to human brain speed?) hours to reach about 12d EGF.
3 Likes
Some pedantic remarks: 2100 rating corresponding to 1d is a 2100 EGF rating, not a 2100 Elo rating. Also, Elo is not an acronym, but the name of the physicist who invented that rating system: Arpad Elo - Wikipedia
5 Likes
Much appreciated 
4 Likes
was a big if. Maybe I overestimate my abilities, but I know each dan rank step is harder than the last and have a pretty good idea of what is involved to get to those levels having beaten some pro/7d before and spent time training with others at or beyond them. 1 dan every 4 years is slower than my progress to date when half-actively studying (I had a job but not a family, now I have both). The biggest thing I would need to do is masses of tsumego to increase my reading strength which is relatively weak, but Iâve never much liked doing them or had the motivation for the quantities necessary.
3 Likes
Your mode of learning can make a big difference! I say this from personal experience and from my observations of other players.
Having a stronger mentor (or mentors) in real life who care about your improvement will greatly increase your chances to become dan-level.
On the other hand, the kind of person who âtrains against bots first before I waste other playersâ timeâ, âsticks with 9x9 until I am good enough for 19x19â, wonât play in tournaments âuntil Iâm good enoughâ and who plays Go only in months-apart bursts of motivation, has much lower chances.
2 Likes