That’s a nice one! Thank you. @flovo would you be able to make separate distribution graphs for the ‘after 15 games’ category? That would be greatly informative especially if you could include percentile breakdown.
Meanwhile, it looks like the inflow of newcomers is centred around ~15k mark. That does confirm, 21k players wouldn’t be very happy playing the newcomers. But then if we apply a uniform correction for standard deviation across server (~2k iirc) that would give the initial ‘slightly less humble rank’ value of 19k, which is close enough to the average.
Still an average 19k player will have not more than 20% chance of winning games with new-comers (more due to distribution rather than skill), but it wouldn’t be as hopeless compared as same players distribution thrown at an average 21k.