So I’ve been wondering about our win/losses pie.
Obviously the primary use is to judge other players for their playing habits. If they play stronger players, they’re bad people who never return the gift of playing a stronger player. If they play weaker players, they’re bad people who like to gang up on the weak. And ideally winrate and weaker opponents rate should be 50%. But in practice this never works out like that. Stronger you are harder to find stronger opponents. Weaker you are harder to find weaker opponents.
So I want to explore this, I don’t think this has been addressed before.
I used rank histogram data to create this. Winrates over the ranks.
Table view
N | Percentiles: | 1 | 25 | 50 | 75 | 99 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1376 | >25k | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.54 |
190 | 25k | 0.14 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.60 |
229 | 24k | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 0.62 |
265 | 23k | 0.05 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0.51 | 0.66 |
292 | 22k | 0.06 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.70 |
338 | 21k | 0.10 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 0.52 | 0.65 |
356 | 20k | 0.20 | 0.39 | 0.45 | 0.52 | 0.69 |
480 | 19k | 0.21 | 0.43 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 0.78 |
426 | 18k | 0.24 | 0.41 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.70 |
455 | 17k | 0.28 | 0.41 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.69 |
524 | 16k | 0.28 | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.65 |
561 | 15k | 0.24 | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.64 |
599 | 14k | 0.31 | 0.43 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.70 |
618 | 13k | 0.31 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.52 | 0.67 |
724 | 12k | 0.28 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
674 | 11k | 0.29 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 0.69 |
721 | 10k | 0.30 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 0.72 |
685 | 9k | 0.29 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 0.70 |
652 | 8k | 0.29 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.76 |
578 | 7k | 0.33 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 0.74 |
612 | 6k | 0.35 | 0.49 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.77 |
524 | 5k | 0.29 | 0.49 | 0.55 | 0.61 | 0.80 |
509 | 4k | 0.32 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 0.80 |
417 | 3k | 0.29 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.63 | 0.84 |
356 | 2k | 0.34 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 0.66 | 0.88 |
290 | 1k | 0.32 | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 0.90 |
235 | 1d | 0.28 | 0.58 | 0.66 | 0.74 | 0.94 |
172 | 2d | 0.40 | 0.58 | 0.66 | 0.76 | 0.96 |
105 | 3d | 0.41 | 0.61 | 0.71 | 0.81 | 0.97 |
52 | 4d | 0.37 | 0.63 | 0.74 | 0.85 | 1.00 |
36 | 5d | 0.35 | 0.70 | 0.77 | 0.87 | 0.96 |
24 | 6d | 0.40 | 0.59 | 0.75 | 0.82 | 0.93 |
13 | 7d | 0.49 | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.95 |
6 | 8d | 0.49 | 0.64 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.96 |
2 | 9d | 0.76 | 0.78 | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.81 |
1 | 9d+ | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 |
Green line is the median. Yellow region covers half of the players - from 25 percentile to 75 percentile. And red region covers 98% of the players - from 1 to 99 percentile. Players with deviation < 100 (but opponents are of all deviations).
Same but for the rate of weaker opponents.
Table view
|1376|>25k|0.00|0.08|0.19|0.32|0.65|
|190|25k|0.05|0.23|0.35|0.46|0.76|
|229|24k|0.00|0.29|0.38|0.50|0.74|
|265|23k|0.00|0.27|0.40|0.53|0.81|
|292|22k|0.03|0.34|0.43|0.50|0.86|
|338|21k|0.08|0.32|0.42|0.51|0.78|
|356|20k|0.11|0.32|0.42|0.52|0.86|
|480|19k|0.07|0.35|0.45|0.52|0.90|
|426|18k|0.08|0.34|0.43|0.50|0.84|
|455|17k|0.07|0.34|0.42|0.51|0.83|
|524|16k|0.10|0.35|0.44|0.51|0.78|
|561|15k|0.06|0.35|0.44|0.52|0.75|
|599|14k|0.17|0.36|0.45|0.52|0.83|
|618|13k|0.11|0.38|0.46|0.53|0.78|
|724|12k|0.09|0.38|0.48|0.54|0.81|
|674|11k|0.10|0.41|0.48|0.56|0.87|
|721|10k|0.11|0.42|0.50|0.57|0.89|
|685|9k|0.10|0.43|0.51|0.59|0.85|
|652|8k|0.09|0.43|0.52|0.61|0.93|
|578|7k|0.12|0.45|0.54|0.64|0.90|
|612|6k|0.13|0.47|0.56|0.65|0.92|
|524|5k|0.10|0.46|0.57|0.67|0.89|
|509|4k|0.11|0.48|0.58|0.68|0.94|
|417|3k|0.06|0.47|0.57|0.71|0.93|
|356|2k|0.17|0.51|0.64|0.75|0.96|
|290|1k|0.13|0.56|0.69|0.80|0.95|
|235|1d|0.11|0.58|0.71|0.82|0.97|
|172|2d|0.18|0.61|0.73|0.83|1.00|
|105|3d|0.28|0.62|0.75|0.84|0.99|
|52|4d|0.28|0.66|0.79|0.89|1.00|
|36|5d|0.26|0.77|0.82|0.88|0.97|
|24|6d|0.21|0.45|0.74|0.88|0.95|
|13|7d|0.39|0.72|0.81|0.88|0.98|
|6|8d|0.21|0.53|0.67|0.84|0.97|
|2|9d|0.68|0.69|0.71|0.72|0.73|
|1|9d+|0.95|0.95|0.95|0.95|0.95|
I didn’t test it for bugs much (though we did find one bug there, hehe) but looks ok.