I’ve spent a good deal of time crunching through the past several years worth of games to try and tease out what the best set of Fischer automatch time settings might be, and to double check that the proposed Byo-Yomi times above are optimal, which I was not surprised that they are.
Below are the highlights of my findings and my proposed settings for 19x19 games (9x9 and 13x13 to come after we finish working through 19x19). Feedback would be highly appreciated.
Analysis notes:
- All games analyzed were 19x19 games.
- Only games that made it past move 90 were considered
- Only games where players were both >= 7 Kyu were considered
Tentative new Byo-Yomi settings:
Speed |
Settings |
Game duration |
Moves |
Avg. Move time |
Samples |
|
|
Avg |
50th |
90th |
99th |
Avg |
50th |
90th |
99th |
Avg |
50th |
90th |
99th |
|
Blitz |
30s + 5x10s |
11:02 |
10:36 |
16:40 |
21:58 |
193 |
189 |
278 |
325 |
3.44s |
3.36s |
4.44s |
5.43s |
5243 |
Rapid |
5m + 5x30s |
21:41 |
19:59 |
34:23 |
49:42 |
208 |
210 |
286 |
329 |
6.31s |
5.85s |
9.37s |
13.05s |
39042 |
Full |
20m + 5x30s |
32:11 |
28:21 |
49:09 |
67:07 |
210 |
216 |
288 |
328 |
9.39s |
8.13s |
13.46s |
19.49s |
162045 |
Rationale:
Blitz: As noted the the original thread creator @AfricanRhino17, 5m+5x10s
feels a bit too slow for a blitz game since there’s so much main time. With an expected game duration of 15:33 - 23:10
and an average move time of 5.36s
, it resided somewhere between Blitz and Rapid. This probably wasn’t the worst choice when there was only “Blitz” and “Normal”, but as we introduce a new Rapid category, having a faster Blitz makes sense.
The choice for 30s+5x10s
specifically from the observation that most popular byo-yomi blitz setting is 0s+5x10s
with a close second coming in at 1m+5x10s
. 30s+5x10s
splits the difference, and has a certain alignment with one of the favorite Fischer blitz settings of 30s+3s
, so it’s a compromise between the two most popular settings and pairs well with our proposed Fischer settings.
As an interesting side note, despite most of the game being played in overtime, the average game duration for a 0 + 5x10s
game is 10:05
where as 1m + 5x10s
is 11:19
, nearly a minute difference just like the main time.
The choice of 5x10s
vs 3x10s
is simply based on popularity, the former being about 2.5-3x more popular.
Rapid: As noted by the thread, 5m+5x30s
is a very popular choice, followed by 5m+3x30s
. In terms of expected game times it fits nicely between the longer traditional 20+5x30s
games and the new 30s+5x10s
blitz games. There wasn’t really much question as to alternatives to this time setting, it is very popular with no real rivals.
Full / Traditional / Normal / Classical: Whatever we want to call this, these are the current default settings for a lot of games and seeing how it fits nicely in terms of a close to 10m increment in expected game time, I see no reason to change it. I did look at some other variations, such as 30m+5x30s (36:37 - 69:46)
and 20m+5x60s (36:51 - 66:51)
, but neither of those settings were particularly popular in the custom game settings and I think 20m+5x30s
fits better along side our our blitz and rapid picks.
Tentative new Fischer settings:
The goal with picking appropriate Fischer settings to achieve similar cadence on average to their Byo-Yomi counterparts, but pull in the 90th and 99th percentiles to provide a more consistent and predictable game experience, particularly for blitz and rapid games.
Speed |
Settings |
Game duration |
Moves |
Avg. Move time |
Samples |
|
|
Avg |
50th |
90th |
99th |
Avg |
50th |
90th |
99th |
Avg |
50th |
90th |
99th |
|
Blitz |
30s+3s |
11:02 |
9:56 |
14:14 |
16:40 |
197 |
196 |
279 |
319 |
3.65s |
3.10s |
3.36s |
3.61s |
2710 |
Rapid |
5m+5s |
21:33 |
21:27 |
31:04 |
34:34 |
195 |
189 |
277 |
312 |
6.79s |
6.95 |
8.56 |
10.00 |
179 |
Full |
10m+10s |
33:06 |
26:18 |
52:11 |
68:36 |
204 |
205 |
288 |
334 |
9.53s |
7.79 |
13.66 |
17.42 |
860 |
Rationale:
Blitz:
30+3s
is a popular Fischer choice with a measured and theoretical cadence that matches well with our measured 30s+5x10s
Byo-Yomi blitz time setting. A lot of options were considered, but some particularly noteworthy alternatives were:
Setting |
Notes |
3m+2s |
A popular chess setting, but not popular for custom games (only 24 samples). The average length of those games were 11:14 , so slightly longer than 30+3s , yet the 50th percentile for moves made was 157 indicating a higher propensity for timing out. Overall this seemed worse than 30+3s , but we don’t have a lot of data. |
30s+4s |
Also reasonably popular for custom Fischer blitz games and had an average game time of 11:36 , so could be a reasonable alternative, but 30s+3s is more popular and I think fits the desired cadence better. |
1m+3s, 2m+3s |
These seemed reasonable, but were less popular than 30+3s |
30s+10s |
A current default setting, this measured with an average game time of 16:35 but had larger upper bounds of how long games last. 16:35 also falls in-between what we want for Blitz and Rapid. |
5m+5s |
This turned out to be way too slow, but perfect for Rapid. |
30s+5s |
With an average game time of 14:15 this seemed to fit in-between our desired Blitz and Rapid target times. |
1m+5s |
With an average game time of 15:22 this seemed to fit in-between our desired Blitz and Rapid target times. |
1m+6s |
With an average game time of 15:02 this seemed to fit in-between our desired Blitz and Rapid target times. |
Rapid:
5m+5s
is not a common setting. Much more common were 5m+10s
, 2m+10s
, 30s+30s
, and 2m+15s
, however for each of these while the average game durations were about what we wanted for a Rapid game, the variance in durations was a lot higher as they all have the significant possibility of starting to feel like a “fulll” as the time increment is greater than the average move time in a “full” game. 5m+5s
provides a more predictable game duration, which I think is an important consideration for both Rapid and Blitz.
Full:
10m+10s
is a reasonably popular time setting and aligns pretty well with 20m+5x30s
. We diverge from blitz and rapid here in that our time increment actually exceeds our average move time, but I think in this case it’s appropriate to facilitate slightly slower than anticipated play while still keeping a reasonable cap on the games. Some other common time settings were 3m+30s
, 14m+30s
, 5m+60s
, and 3m+20
, however while the average game duration for those games was reasonable, the 90th and 99th percentile games notably exceed that of 20m+5x30s
, which makes sense since there’s so much opportunity to bank an excessive amount of time with those time increments.