Life is messy
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Tournament is finished.
I’ll throw some numbers in.
Recap of number of games for each round and handicap given:
We were interested in ranks/handicap system effectiveness.
I excluded all games ended by timeout, in order to have a cleaner dataset. Spoiler: it didn’t make much difference.
Round 1 without timeouts
Old rating system.
Small handicaps.
Outcome was quite even between white and black.
I don’t pay much attention to those 5 games with 2 stones handicap.
Also breaking handicaps (above) according to “supposed” rank difference (below) shows a very even result:
Round 2 without timeouts
Still old rating system.
Same as before: even games are perfectly fifty/fifty.
One stone games are pretty even.
Two stone games are won mostly by black.
I don’t mint those 4 games with 3 stones.
This looks also pretty even:
Round 3 without timeouts
New rating system.
Bigger handicaps.
Even are even.
1 stone won mostly by white
2 stones won mostly by black
3 stones almost all won by black, but not so many games
4 stones, just 3 games, nevermind
All in all, handicap system worked quite well.
Overall outcome is quite balanced.
Perhaps black has some advantage with bigger handicaps.
I’ll stick with that.
Thank you everybody.
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Thanks for your analysis!
So, there were only two games won by White against 3 stones handicap, one in round 2 and one in round 3.
Here they are:
That’s good to know!
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So under the new system, 19 out of 20 games with 3 or 4 stones were won by Black? That seems significant.
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We could check this one. Although in round robin the results are somewhat dependent on each other (like if a player is underrated in one game, they’re underrated in others).
Yes, it seems, but when you look at each pool they are very few games and I don’t know how much they could actually be significant.
When I see (from my last histogram chart) 77 games with balanced outcome I feel much more confident respect to when I see 8 games with 7 black wins.
Here you are.
Only 105 games. 18 timeouts.
Handicaps from 0 to 5.
Excluding timeouts:
This still looks quite balanced to me.
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