Testing the Volatility: Summary

[shinuito]

@espoojaram

Here’s the thing. First off, until we get an official confirmation that the goratings repository is the code currently used in the site, we don’t actually know how exactly it works; and even if we get that confirmation, until we understand the code thoroughly, we won’t know if it actually works the same way Glicko-2 should.

I think one big issue here, is that you’re asking for quite a lot of work to just convince you of… something.

Help me understand and check that this repository is correctly implementing glicko2 and also that this is the current code being used on the site.

I think you could get a reasonably easy yes or no on the second one to an extent from someone like @flovo or something when he’s around.

The first one is a big ask though I feel.

I know you’ve written a lot here, but and I think you’ve already said this, that it’s not clear why the system isn’t working as expected. Is it just that players ratings go up and down based on whether they’ve won or lost games that’s the issue?

@espoojaram

Still, I’d like to see some evidence. One can appeal to whatever big theories they want, but until they perform an experiment that could falsify their predictions they’re mostly empty words.

My words – my belief that the current level of volatility is not useful – are empty too, and I’d like to perform a test able to falsify them.

Maybe you should read back through the ratings updates posts from anoek. They don’t paint a picture of something that was just randomly implemented without lots of testing. Just because all of that testing process wasn’t catalogued on display in a public forum, in an easily digestible manner, doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist or wasn’t done. I could be wrong also, but again I would start reading the previous updates 2021 back to 2014 to get a feeling for it if you want:

2021 Rating and rank adjustments

tl;dr - Expect a notable bump in your rank. The lower the rank you are, the larger the increase. This transition is planned to take effect around 2021-01-28T01:30:00Z (UTC) . Summary of the update: We are attempting to align our low dan ranks to be comparable to the EGF and AGA low dan ranks. Currently we are projecting that a 1d OGS rank will be about .7 stones weaker than an EGF 1d and about 0.8 stones stronger than an AGA 1d. These numbers will be re-evaluated once the dust settles, but…

2020 Rating and rank tweaks and analysis

tl;dr - Ratings and ranks have been tweaked a little, there should be a bit less volatility in ranks now. Ratings and ranks have been adjusted retroactively. Main changes: We were using fixed windows to update ranks, considering up to 15 games at a time to update your rank. When we got to the 16th game, we’d “commit” your rank and start a new block to update your ranks. We now use a sliding window, so we look at your most recent 15 games (up to 90 days), and use that to update your rank, this…

OGS has a new Glicko-2 based rating system! [2017]

tl;dr We’re switching to a Glicko-2 rating system, which should be great for a lot of reasons. All of your past ranked games have been accounted for during this transition. Hello OGS! For the past several years we’ve been using a rating and ranking system based on Elo developed by the European Go Federation. It has served us reasonably well, but there have been some shortcomings when applying that system in an online setting. Most of the shortcomings can be traced back to the fact that the sy…

[Outdated] Rating correction and changes

tl;dr We’re looking to correct our rating and ranking system. On everyones profile you’ll find the estimated new rating and ranking for that user, it will be under their current rating and rank: [image] Please check out not only your own rating and ranking, but peer ratings and rankings (that is, players who you think you have a good feel for being equal, stronger, or weaker to that of your own rank), and let us know how things look. Also, it’s not a good idea to adjust your rank now in an…