"The" explanation of why your rank can go down after winning a game

I wish I was about to type a great explanation of why your rank can go down after you win one game.

But I don’t clearly understand it - I have an inkling, but not a firm grasp.

Can someone explain it in a straightforwards way?

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can it still do that? After the most recent update the only way I can see that happening is if a game is in multiple ratings periods, causing losing streaks to take effect even after they’ve ended

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Your starting point is trailing 15 games behind, so if that dipped significantly from the 16th game, your current win might not be enough to retrend up enough to make it a positive gain.

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Let’s say
games -30 to -17 opponent 10k (all wins, all opponents same rank for simplicity)
game -16 opponent 1D win
games -15 to -2 opponent 10k (same)
game -1 opponent 5k win

you got a win but lower than the previously included in the bracket?
Did I get this correctly?

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Do I get this right:

  • Your new rank is calculated from your rank 15 games ago, plus the effect of the most recent 15 games.
  • If that game, 15 games ago, was a loss where your rank went down from before, then your starting point for the calculation is now lower than it was last time your rank was calculated.
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Yep exactly so

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Hello. Since we don’t do “recalculating opponents’ ratings” thing anymore, I suppose it’s possible for users to calculate all glicko2 changes. We can make an explanation tool. Show the difference in starting point, difference for each game (point gain/loss now vs one game ago), and how much swapping 16th game for new game affected the result. Thus showing term by term what changed.

Maybe even we get some more understanding outselves.

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another point i thought i got is the ranking of unranked players…

you play agst an unranked player … his ranking moves in one or the other direction, that also affects my rating

no?

The points for a game are based on your probability to win the game and your deviation. Both still change with each game due to changes of your own rating and deviation.

Is a new value of the opponent’s rank in each of the 15 games in the window used each time the calculation is run?

Is it the “current” value of the opponent’s rank, or the value of their rank at the time of the game?

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It should be their rank at the time the game ended.