I am quite surprises that some players are still resigning and that the trend for resigning is very regular.
It looks like about 3 / 5 of the games of the lowest three full groups are still ongoing.
Note that trohde and Sanonius are in the same group. Their game (and long German chat) is at Tournament Game: Through the Years: Long Correspondence (59567) R:1 (Sanonius vs trohde)
Just turned 68 today. So far, so good, alive and well, hope to live to see the second round at least. More players resigned or disqualified than I expected. Will the rules for the second round be the same as first round, three days for the first move? If so, there is a risk to have players disqualified because they have not noticed the start. Will we be notified?
Bon anniversaire!
I guess it will be like all tournaments, we will wake up one day to a bunch of additional games on our page and that notification up right.
Yes I suppose so. But suppose for some reason you have not logged in for a while, have no running game, you are likely to miss it.
It depends on personalized notifications, I guess. If a user has disabled their email notifications for when a game starts and also don’t log in, they will probably miss it.
I forgot you can have email notifications. 
I never looked closely at my account settings.
Additionally, if three day period for the first move touches weekend anywhere, it cancels and the player gets main time from there.
In terms of games completed, It seems we’re over 90% of the way through the round, but I’m curious. How far through would you guesstimate we are in terms of time? Do you think we are a quarter of the way through yet?
My capacitor formula simulator still says we won’t reach 10k games ever. 
Capacitor voltage changes exponentially because the rate of change of voltage (current) depends on the voltage: the fuller it gets, the less potential difference there is to drive the current into the capacitor.
Using that sort of equation here would imply that the number of games there are left to finish somehow affects the rate at which games finish. I guess that might apply if, for example, closer you got to being the last to finish, the less inclined you were to give up that honour and finish.
I don’t think it’s the case. I’d say that the resulting curve is just the sum of many distinct cases where playing speed is unrelated.
But the curve fits incredibly well! That’s why I was so happy S_Alexander brought it to my attention.
I leave the philosophy to others and just look at the curve and wait for confirmation or refutation.
The capacitor curve deals with continuous values, whereas the number of games is discrete. Maybe when we have a value like 9999.5, we would round up to 10000.
How about an even longer tournament?
It turns out that Swiss tournaments use the formula (P + 7)/5 to set the number of rounds, where P is the number of players.
EDIT: Turns out this formula may be incorrect. We’ve found examples that contradict it and a working hypothesis is that the number of rounds is capped at 8.
Thus, a tournament with 500 players is set for over 100 rounds (however, I’m not sure that is reduced if some people drop out). With over 2000 players, that would be over 400 rounds.
Of course, a Swiss tournament would also be different in giving only one game to each player per round, but it’s all about going the distance here.
I guess I won’t compete for longest game here. One of my least-advanced games just ended in a win (we had 3 moves on one side of the board, and a big fight on the other, which was simply too big so the game was resigned)… That said, one of my games still has this issue where one player waits until there are minutes left in some of their games to log back in and play, extending the clock. So we never know, but I’m not as likely a contender as before :’( I wanted to be the one everybody’s exasperatedly waiting for (not true, but the prospect is funny)
The completed games daily average has been quite stable in the last month, with about 7 completed games per day. With 839 games left it would take about 120 days to complete the tournament.
Optimistic estimate. 
Here is my old dashboard updated:
Looks like we are growing faster than 2nd degree poly (luckily, since that polynomial doesn’t reach the target!) and slower than log (which would reach target in about two months).
Capacitor curve estimate says we’re heading to 9650 completed games (so 388 games will stay unfinished) and we’ll be there in about 1000 days.
I haven’t been to school for quite a while so I don’t remember it that well. But the logic is that given period of time T and number of games N roughly X percent of games are gonna finish in this period. And as time goes on smaller number of games is left, and smaller the rate of finishing games (in absolute values). I imagine it’s gonna break when we get to super slow players.
It may appear that way at the macroscopic level, but when you get into the nitty gritty, surely the units of capacitance are quanticised? There’s just an awful lot of quanta. Anyway I take the point that games completed should not affect the speed at which games complete (unless people are actively trying to be last).
Well with that many players, it’s not something to discard.
Then I guess the only way we can really estimate how long this may last is to find the slowest games and see how fast they’re going.
Hmmm. I was hoping this game might timeout after S_Alexander unpaused it, but it seems both players are still (minimally) active. We may only be 1 40th of the way through this round.
