How about a logarithmic scale for the y-axis?
3 Likes
16 days later (data of 11/12/2025 from Purble):
- 273 games in progress, 291 players involved, 67 groups
- 21 completed games
- 20 players completed all their games, 4 of them with 9 wins
- 3 groups completed all their games
- 2 disqualified players
Here you are:
6 Likes
From a rough eyeball estimate, it seems that games have a half-life around 100 days
2 Likes
The radioactive decay comes back.
We already tried that to estimate the end of the first round
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Looks like the exponential decay worked pretty well down to ~20 games last time, which is pretty reasonable. Too early to tell if it’ll work as well this time, but we’ll see
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Yes. the first round had a slope on the log graph fairly constant for the first 300 to 400 days, flattening out slightly until around 1000 to 1100 days, at which point it clearly steepens. Cleary the second round initial days were dominated by mass timeouts. but does seem to be also flattening some now. I could theorize the final “acceleration” could be due to endgame generally played faster, and final games having some psychological pressure (the needs of the many outweighing the needs of the few or one)
1 Like
For those of you who are fans of powers of two, there are now fewer than 256 games remaining to complete in round 2… so for half life estimate, still 800 days to go
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19 days later (data of 12/1/2025 from Purble):
- 253 games in progress, 274 players involved, 64 groups
- 20 completed games
- 17 players completed all their games, 1 of them with 9 wins
- 3 groups completed all their games
- 1 disqualified player, 1 resigned
7 Likes
After the Maya calendar, the Gregorian calendar, I propose we get the Lys calendar.
4 Likes
Hopefully will end (and win 
) my last ongoing game before those 800 days. Already impressed by being in the last 5%.
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Thanks @Lys - because I’d be interested to see how fast games get finished in this 2nd round compared to the 1st round. … And if it’s not asking too much, both a “games completed (in any manner” vs. time and a breakdown comparison of how many finished by 1) “full play, passing, and counting”, 2) by a player resigning, and 3) by “time out” - that would be interesting to me.
3 Likes