Birdies unite! 
3 Likes
If MystWalker and I are rebels, you’d still have to explain why a settler would play like Leira does. Also, according to the poll, it seems everyone except for MystWalker and Leira (who both abstained) believes you should play C10.
Again, if you’re a settler, please don’t make yourself more suspicious than you already are; having information is the only way settlers have a chance, and making oneself suspicious without being a rebel really muddies the available information.
As for whether it is beneficial to be attacked as a settler by other settlers:
If you’re a suspicious settler, you might give the potential (and in that case probable) rebel Jon Ko the opportunity to grab the side with a legitimate reason, and you’d likely cause yebellz to unnecessarily fortify the right side, while defending the left side against potential rebel NeilAgg would evidently be the more urgent matter.
3 Likes
Hmmm, okay C10 it is.
So how do I make it a picture?
And @Jon_Ko, it’s your turn, after @martin3141 confirms the stone’s fate.
3 Likes
You could take a screenshot and crop it, that’s how I do it.
But it doesn’t have to be you, anybody can take that screenshot and post it.
4 Likes
C10 does not get captured.
By the way, I’m observing the game with great pleasure 
6 Likes
I admittedly didn’t expect this. Awkward situation in the upper right now. I’ll still assume that Leira is a rebel and yebellz the spy. That means of the 3 of us, Jon_Ko, Gia and myself, one of is is a lying rebel, one of us the amnesiac and only the third a true settler. I know, I’m not the liar, and that gives me a 50% chance of being the amnesiac. One of the 2 others is in the same situation.
5 Likes
So now that we all know I’m on @Vsotvep’s team, can we please go to the offensive? My heart yearns to plunge my bat’leth into the hearts of the Enemy.
5 Likes
Okay, so there is a confirmed team of three people, and one or two others (out of 6) are part of that team. The chances that I’m part of it thus seem not that big. I’ll ask the stars whether I should try to reduce the lower right, even though Barbanaira did play C10 after all.
4 Likes
Come at me, you! HeghluʼmeH QaQ jajvam.
(Man, am I bad at RPing a consistent character)
4 Likes
I’m in deep meditation now about what my strategy should be. I have no concrete plans yet, but I want to work towards confirming my identity one way or the other while not making moves that are bad for my team, which may be any of the 2. I don’t feel bound to following a common settler strategy any longer, but still may listen to advice as long as it doesn’t go against my interests as outlined.
5 Likes
If you speak the truth and your analysis is right, you can throw in at L10 to find out whether you are the amnesiac or not.
4 Likes
Or you play adjacent to @Leira’s 
missonary to make a confirmation of his identity quicker
3 Likes
I think that either @NeilAgg 
or @richyfourtytwo 
should throw in at L10.
I think @Gia should work alone to capture @Leira stone. If another player helps, that might lead to a less informative non-capture.
3 Likes
Maybe @Jon_Ko 
should play at J11 to set up another future capture test?
2 Likes
Leira sent urgent messages to all settlers. He probably should have accepted Her Majesty’s offer of a dozen mighty steeds, because donkeys and oxen feel horribly slow in this situation.
The message:
"Please stop, all of you, before settling further.
I’ll show you my calculations now, so you can understand what I’ve been talking about. I’m quite confident you’ll want to hear this.
I just need a bit of time to prepare my report. Meet me at my hut in the mountain.
L.t.H."
4 Likes
I will defend the lower right with all might that I can pay for!
I am all for battle, with three confirmed settlers and exceedingly more likely the spy, I believe we have the upper hand now.
I agree that a single person capturing a stone gives most information, thus also prefer @Gia capturing alone.
As a last note, I’m currently on a business trip, arranging the import of more tea, and I would like to discuss our next moves as well. Jumping in head first is a quick way no lose an advantage, so I agree with the treacherous Hermit just this once.
7 Likes
All I know is that I am seriously confused right now!
6 Likes
Part 1 (of ???): The World
The path up the mountain was demanding, but uneventful. If you were in a generous mood, you might even call it a road; you might call the high cliffs a beautiful landscape and the lack of human presence a peaceful retirement.
Of course, were you not in a so generous mood, you’d see little more than a mule trail, weaving through 30 meter tall death traps of loose stone, and several choke points where absence of bandits a matter of sheer luck.
The hermit’s house was located on a large—somewhat flat—clearing near the top.
Welcome, Your Excellencies, to my humble abode.
I’ll start with the facts. For this let’s establish some common parlance so that there is no ambiguity:
Definitions:
- Spy: The person who was told to be a spy.
- Amnesiac: The person who was told to be settler but (unknowingly) places stones of the opposite color.
- Settler: A person who was told to be a settler, and is indeed a settler. Not a spy.
- Rebel: A person who was told to be a rebel and given a list of 5 people. Not an amnesiac.
- Settler-faction: A person (or people) who places stones of settler color. A settler or spy.
- Rebel-faction: A person (or people) who places stones of rebel color. A rebel or amnesiac.
- Settler-believer: A person who was told to be a settler. A settler or amnesiac.
- Rebel-listed: A person (or people) who are in the list given to rebels. A rebel, amnesiac or spy.
Now, some of you are familiar with probabilities, but for the benefit of those who aren’t, this is the only thing you need to know:
So, initially, the rebels and the spy know their own role with 100% certainty. Settler-believers, on the other hand, see themselves as 80% settler, 20% amnesiac.
An outsider would not be able to distinguish anyone so they’d see 44% settler, 33% rebel, 11% spy, 11% amnesiac for all players.
Now the captures have, strictly speaking, established some facts on the board: Leira is in one team, whereas @Vsotvep 
, @Mystwalker 
and @Barbanaira 
are together in the opposite team. Let’s call them Team Black and Team White, respectively, for short.
Considering only on-the-board logic, an outside observer would see this
Total Scenarios: 300 (click for details)
| Player | settlers | rebels | spy | amnesiac |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leira (black) | 26.67% | 50.00% | 6.67% | 16.67% |
| Barbanaira (white) | 53.33% | 25.00% | 13.33% | 8.33% |
| Jon Ko (red) | 42.67% | 35.00% | 10.67% | 11.67% |
| NeilAgg (yellow) | 42.67% | 35.00% | 10.67% | 11.67% |
| Vsotvep (blue) | 53.33% | 25.00% | 13.33% | 8.33% |
| richyfortytwo (green) | 42.67% | 35.00% | 10.67% | 11.67% |
| Gia (pink) | 42.67% | 35.00% | 10.67% | 11.67% |
| MystWalker (teal) | 53.33% | 25.00% | 13.33% | 8.33% |
| yebellz (orange) | 42.67% | 35.00% | 10.67% | 11.67% |
Part 2, coming soon.
Please bear with me. The report is quite detailed. Merchant Vsotvep is busy buying cheap herbs to sell as high quality tea, so we have to wait for his return. I’ll try to be finished by then.
6 Likes
Nice, nice, very nice, brother Leira.
6 Likes
It is convenient that Black and White are on different teams
Black
White
Unconfirmed by board moves
If you beleive my claim as Spy, which no one has contested, and you believe that Team White are Settlers, then the situation looks like this
Settlers
Rebels
Unknown
My personal hunch is that Team White are Settlers, so I will work towards benefitting that team. However, I think that an even more urgent objective is to remove remaining uncertainty about alignments. Eventually, I should also test myself against the two teams as well.
In this scenario, there is most likely (in my belief that Leira is a self-aware Rebel, i.e., not the amnesiac) two people on this “Unknown list” that were told that they were a Settler (a “Settler-believer”), but only one is an actual “Settler-faction” and the other is the Amnesiac. Given the coin-flip uncertainty that these two players face, it should be their utmost priority to figure out their alignment. On the other hands, the Rebels on the unknown list will probably wish to delay such revelations.
It is @Jon_Ko’s turn, and @NeilAgg is next. What are your thoughts about how to most efficiently reveal the Rebels??
3 Likes