No, Fiddlehead, you directly accused Vsotvep of being an assassin:
If this is the case, since Fiddlehead is close to being executed, I believe it would be a bad strategy for the assassins to both go for El Ka-Oz, since that immediately removes the possibility for El Ka-Oz voting for anybody other than Fiddlehead. Right now, Fiddlehead is busy digging the hole that made him suspicious (suspecting that I’m an assassin / convert) even deeper. Fiddlehead being the coward would mean it is vital for the assassins that Fiddlehead lives, and I don’t see this strategy emerging from either Clement’s or Fiddlehead’s behaviour.
But that’s nothing strange. Any assassin trying not to be found would want to discuss a good strategy.
But, why? It’s only in the benefit of the assassins to have suspicions out in the open. How do innocent people truly benefit from knowing who is found to be suspicious by others? I wish to vote for the assassin, but by prematurely stating who I suspect to be the assassin, I’m setting the tone for the discussion that follows.
Instead, I naturally don’t know who is the assassin, and thus I don’t want to jump to hasty conclusions. Me telling what I will vote for, even if I knew already, is not going to change who I will vote for. It will only influence how the conversations will go, and that’s playing into the only weapon the assassins have at this moment.
It should also be mentioned that both assassins and converted cowards should behave similarly, with the only difference being that the coward should be better protected against suspicion, since the coward dying is the end for the assassins.
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And again, to capitalise: if I were an assassin('s thrall), I could just vote for the innocent out of Fiddlehead or El Ka-Oz, and the game would be over.
Finally, Lord Fiddlehead, if you’re convinced that I’m a converted coward, you should advocate to execute me this night, not El Ka-Oz.
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If we’re going to contemplate voting for Lord V. at this point then we’d need to reassess the whole voting dynamics, as it would cause the current deadlock situation to dissolve.
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More or less. Usually, the best strategy for an assassin is to stay relatively calm and, yes, seem helpful, but without ever bringing forward actual new helpful ideas. If you ask yourself how I, as a merchant, can know such things: When I was still free, I used to play a game with my friends in the pub, it was called “Werewolf”. If we should ever get out of here, I hope we will be able to play it together one day.
And yes, of course I see that my arguments to make my case are weak – there is simply no actual proof, and I can only point to the things I said. The whole time, I thought it was clear that I am helpful to our cause to support our king, but apparently, it is much less clear than I was expecting.
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I don’t really get this… If a coward has been converted and there are now two assassins, they are just two equals, and it doesn’t matter at all who of them gets killed by us first. Or am I wrong?
Yes, it does matter: the coward getting killed will reveal the last assassin and get him killed as well. If the assassin dies first, the coward stays alive to remain the last member of “team assassin”
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What if we ask all players to rank all other players by order of suspicion, and try to infer data from that?
That might give us a more nuanced picture.
Aaaaaah, that is so important! I didn’t know this anymore!
Well, then I’ll change my vote to Clement…
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I believe I gave my ranked suspicions above, when discussing all possible couples of assassins.
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If you believe that Clement is the (possible) coward and Fiddlehead the assassin, why not just vote for Fiddlehead?
Remember that even if one is the assassin and the other the coward, you and I will have to vote in unison to remove either of them.
…if Marco also changes his vote; otherwise I’ll change mine back to Fiddlehead, of course.
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Because it would be better then to vote for Clement, in the hope to finish Fiddlehead at the same time!
And yes, we will definitely have to vote in unison to have any chance at all to survive this, and I can let you make the decision between the two of them, that’s okay with me.
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Because it would be better then to vote for Clement, in the hope to finish Fiddlehead at the same time!
Hmm, this is mainly relevant if Lord V. sides with Fiddlehead in the event of a post-Clement scenario… is this something you expect to happen?
No, not at all.
I was just afraid of Clement then having another day to scapegoat me. But maybe I don’t even need to worry about that. Don’t know. Argh, this logic stuff is exhausting.
Since you’re the accused party, you can choose. If you want to vote for Clement, we’ll vote for Clement.
But this is more to maintain our voting unity than anything else.
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Oh, okay, thank you. 
I’m not at all sure who of them is the coward. Before Vsotvep laid down his thoughts, I thought that it would be Fiddlehead, because before Nghtstalker died, I had a feeling that Fiddlehead was innocent. But maybe I was wrong about that. What Vsotvep said just makes a lot of sense, and now I tend to think that Clement is the coward.
Hence, I would like you to change your vote to Clement.
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There is no post-Clement scenario if the coward has been converted.
- We either kill an assassin, and are left with 2 innocent vs 1 converted coward (or possibly 3 innocent if the smuggler gets lucky)
- Or we kill the converted coward and the innocents win
- Or we kill an innocent and the assassin + coward have enough to never be voted out.
Thus the only reason not to vote for who you think is the coward, is if you are convinced that there is no converted coward.
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This vow of unity changed my ranking a bit: the Marco & Clement scenario becomes a bit more dangerous while simultaneously becoming a bit less likely. Meanwhile the Fiddlehead & Marco scenario becomes slightly more likely as well as slightly more dangerous.
The El Ka-Oz & Clement scenario has become very unlikely.
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