Werewolf S06: An Emperor in Atari

KAOSkonfused · February 20, 2021, 4:24pm

I have some trouble understanding what exactly Clement means, but I guess, it’s clear to everyone that he is still trying to frame me as an assassin, together with Fiddlehead.

So, as I understand, he points out with skepticism what I said last night.

I guess, this translates to something like:
“Heads up, this is the assassin!
If we can’t make a decision together (???), no one will get killed tonight.
The assassins will be glad and it will be the end of everything. (???)”

I’m not at all sure about the last parts.

However, I think that if you remember my words from yesternight (as Clement tried to repeat them), you will see that I was indeed always cautious with my accusations and made very clear that I was not 100% sure of anything, because how should I be? We lost our seer, and therefore none of us can accuse anyone with 100% certainty.

Vsotvep · February 20, 2021, 4:26pm

I believe the last line is, the two remaining assassin’s high five because it’s 2 vs 2.

KAOSkonfused · February 20, 2021, 4:27pm

Ah, yes, you’re probably right.

KAOSkonfused · February 20, 2021, 4:29pm

Funny, though, that Clement and Fiddlehead are both so very sure that there are two assassins.
I’m now also sure. And yes, they will surely highfive if they manage to get me killed, because then it’s definitely all over.

claire_yang · February 20, 2021, 5:18pm

Vsotvep · February 20, 2021, 5:19pm

It is quite likely that there are two assassins, I’m also in belief that there are two assassins, since it’s our worst-case scenario.

Let’s imagine all possible scenario’s and see if they fit the voting pattern. Note that the assassins can end the game by voting out an innocent player at this moment, since the innocents could never get a majority afterwards. On the assumption that there are two assassins, it is very probably that the assassins will go for a kill in the vote today.

Fiddlehead & El Ka-Oz

This would be highly dangerous for them, since I intend to vote at the very last minute of closing the poll: if they are both assassin’s, I can hereby guarantee that one assassin gets killed.

This scenario therefore seems highly unlikely to me.

Fiddlehead & Marco

In this scenario Marco got converted by Fiddlehead either yesterday or the day before. Marco has the benefit of being listed as innocent, thus this may in fact be a game-winning strategy: Marco just kills everyone.
However, in this case as well, it makes little sense for Marco to vote for Fiddlehead, since Marco voting for El Ka-Oz instead would guarantee a majority vote for an innocent at this point.

Hence, this scenario seems unlikely, but very dangerous to me.

Fiddlehead & Clement

This makes complete sense: two assassins, voting together, taking a gamble on me distrusting El Ka-Oz more than them. If this is the case, claire must be the converted coward, since it would otherwise be too risky a strategy.

This scenario seems likely.

Fiddlehead & Vsotvep

In this scenario we will win the game when I vote for El Ka-Oz, so why would I wait with doing so?

Others may have to judge this, but to me this scenario seems unlikely.

El Ka-Oz & Marco

This makes complete sense as well: two assassins, voting together again, yada yada. This fits with the necessary fact that Marco must be the converted coward, thus getting El Ka-Oz killed is both not the end for the assassins, and also ideal for Marco, being the least suspect.

This scenario seems both likely and extremely dangerous.

El Ka-Oz & Clement

This would once again be an interesting case where the assassins decide to make each other suspicious. Here we once again have the weird thing that Clement could just vote for Fiddlehead to get a majority.

Therefore, this scenario seems unlikely.

El Ka-Oz & Vsotvep

If we play it like this, there’s no reason for me not to vote for fiddlehead now.

Others may have to judge this again, but to me this scenario seems unlikely.

Marco & Clement

This would be ideal for the assassins, as neither are in danger of being voted out. It therefore makes little sense for them to stay split between Fiddlehead and El Ka-Oz, especially, since by voting to eliminate fiddlehead, Clement could gain trust with El Ka-Oz, which increases the likelihood of the elimination succeeding. Of course Marco is the coward in this scenario, thus it’s important that Clement stays more suspicious than Marco at all points.

This scenario seems unlikely to me.

Marco & Vsotvep

Another nice scenario where neither of us are in danger of being voted out. Here Marco must be the coward, and I must be an assassin all along. Personally I believe I was putting my foot down on eliminating both Ruby and the seer as a guaranteed way to eliminate an assassin, thus this might be a genius play by me.

However, I would consider this scenario to be very unlikely, also since once again I could end the game by just voting any of the two current suspects.

Clement & Vsotvep

This is once again similar to the other scenarios, except that both I and Clement could choose to vote for Fiddlehead to end the game.

Thus, I find this highly unlikely.

Conclusion

Based on my analysis above, I find it most likely that either Fiddlehead and Clement are two assassins, or that El Ka-Oz and Marco are two assassins. The latter is slightly less likely, since it needs the additional luck for the assassins that Marco is the coward, but it is also more dangerous.

That means that I find it highly likely that one of the two main suspects at the moment (El Ka-Oz or Fiddlehead) is an assassin. I have no hurry, and enjoy witnessing the discussion. Perhaps I might learn more by waiting with my choice between these two options.

Vsotvep · February 20, 2021, 5:26pm

Some additional hypothetical argument: assassins have a benefit for eliminating the least suspicious person first, thus it is not unlikely that Marco has been targeted and turned out to be ~~innocent~~ [edit: I meant, a coward]. Thus, if Marco was targeted, Marco is now an assassin, and if Marco was not targeted, it might be because Marco was already “thinking the right way” by being suspicious of an innocent, and not being suspicious of an assassin.

I’m not sure how to rhyme this with my above hypotheses.

bugcat · February 20, 2021, 5:33pm

I think we all publicly share this viewpoint. Or would anyone like to disagree?

Vsotvep · February 20, 2021, 5:34pm

It depends, at least all innocents agree on that point. If the assassins don’t, we’re in trouble

bugcat · February 20, 2021, 5:48pm

Let’s assume:

The assassin voted, because the deadlock was perceived as urgent. This is the foundational but most flawed assumption.
If the coward was converted, he also voted, and on the same side as the assassin.
That either Lord Fiddlehead or El Ka-Oz is the assassin.
That if the coward is active, he is either me or Clement.
That the chance of the coward being active is 50%.
That there is an equal chance of the assassin being either Fiddlehead or El Ka-Oz and the coward being either me or Clement.
That per our first assumption, Lord Vsotvep is to considered innocent.

This gives up a suspicion ranking as so:

Fiddlehead 50%, El Ka-oz 50% (as the assassin)
Clement 50%, me 50% (as the coward)
Vsotvep 0%

Obviously, there is a very real chance that Vsotvep waiting to vote is actually a cynical play. But I don’t think we have the time to make this a serious consideration; we have to just gamble.

bugcat · February 20, 2021, 5:52pm

However, I was verified as the innocent by Lord Nightstalker.

This means that there was less time for me to be activated as a coward than for Clement to be activated, which makes Clement more suspicious, thus Clement > Marco.

Since the second presumption ties the voting pairs together, that means

Fiddlehead & Clement > El Ka-Oz & Marco

This argument is based on logic rather than my personal suspicions about Fiddlehead’s behaviour.

Vsotvep · February 20, 2021, 6:11pm

Based on logic and your assumptions, some of which I find not necessarily given. Most importantly, I’m not convinced either you or Clement must be the coward (and consider that Fiddlehead or El Ka-Oz might be one). I also don’t agree with there being equal chance between both candidates for being an assassin, or for being a coward. These chances are biased by how well players play their cards, and the interaction with other players.

An assassin is likely to capitalise on suspicions, an innocent ought to be more conservative.

Vsotvep · February 20, 2021, 6:15pm

Let’s attempt to translate this:

At night the assassin doesn’t kill
The assassin cooks up a recipe towards 2 people vs 2 people
Assassin & bugcat versus assassin & what I presume to be Clement

If that’s correct, you’re stating here that it’s El Ka-Oz & Fiddlehead?

bugcat · February 20, 2021, 6:19pm

Hmm, so Clement doesn’t agree that Lord Ruby was an assassin? Interesting…

Considering the testimony from the late Lord Nightstalker, I find that suspicious.

Vsotvep · February 20, 2021, 6:19pm

Is that what 1. means? That would be doubly strange, so I don’t believe that.

bugcat · February 20, 2021, 6:20pm

(OOC: wait, it is character knowledge that there were no more than two original assassins, right? if not then disregard my post)

fiddlehead · February 20, 2021, 8:12pm

Lord Bugcat, although I had misgivings about Lord Ruby early on, I hadn’t necessarily pegged him as an assassin. My vote against Nghtstalker was based on his strange insistence on not claiming to be the seer. I don’t know if I was in fact the most outspoken against him. Maybe so, but it bears repeating that the majority of us saw him as highly suspicious. I was hardly alone in that.

As for my “cynical chance” against Lord Vsotvep, I put a straightforward question to him and never did get an answer. And the excuse he continues to offer just isn’t reasonable in my view.

Vsotvep · February 20, 2021, 8:14pm

What exactly is unreasonable about it? As an assassin, surely I would benefit more from raising suspicion than from refusing to take immediate action? I could vote for one of the people and be done with the game. Instead, I don’t want to give the assassins more material to work with, less ideas to corrupt.

Also, as I explained above, it is a bit of a toss up really…

KAOSkonfused · February 20, 2021, 8:20pm

Thanks to Vsotvep and Bugcat for figuring out the likely scenarios. I also prepared to write about the two scenarios that I find likely, but I had a logical error that I see now – I thought that if I would be an assassin, I would have to be the only one, and didn’t think of the possibility that Marco could have been converted in the meantime.

Allow me to make a few additions to Vsotvep’s scenarios:

It’s just as well possible that Clement was an assassin all along, and that Fiddlehead was converted only the day before yesterday. But by last night, both would have been assassins, if we want this scenario to make sense (because of yesternights accusations that were a bit fishy).

Yes, it’s also likely, but this would mean that I would have been an assassin all along, the whole time, even in the beginning when I was the first one who wanted to discuss a good strategy against the assassins and everything. Just please, look back on everything I said during the first nights, and think about if there is really any suspicious about it.

And then there is also a third possible scenario, in which I would be the only assassin, without anyone having been converted, and Marco still being innocent. In that case, it all would just be over after killing me.

But well, actually, it will all be ended by killing me, because I’m innocent and then it will be two innocents against two assassins.

fiddlehead · February 20, 2021, 8:23pm

I would say that it was already very late in the day for us to become frozen into inaction because of what the assassin may or may not know. For better or worse, we needed to have our own suspicions out in the open.

It has never been my position that you’re an assassin . I believe that you are under that assassin’s control.