Why does the graph say one size is massively winning when up by only 1 point. Isn’t this formula need work?
Because if you are a superhuman AI, winning by 1 point can be massively winning. That’s the important thing to note about AI winrates, they are not targeted at YOU the human weakling 5 kyu or whatever. So if you are assuming an AI winrate of 90% means you have a 90% chance to win the game you have misunderstood it. This is one reason why using score rather than winrate is generally much better.
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Win rates are generally not very useful, humans are not perfect and have emotions so we will therefore throw games when they are massively winning, even at higher levels sometimes. I have had lots of games where me or my opponent were +30 but still managed to lose because of playing tricky moves and not giving up.
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