O look is that fireworksâŠ
Might be a deadly meteor.
You never know with the kind of firework they sell these days
Almost forgot to grab my earplugs.
The project has been resurrected! Tens of millions of euros it is. But some costs will be covered by private investors. Iâm guessing that means there will be advertisement on the statue.
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It looks like the Russian military is becoming increasingly dependent on Iran delivering drones and missiles to continue the invasion of Ukraine.
This could become an issue with the ongoing human rights protests in Iran. Iranian high ranking officials seem to be preparing to flee Iran in case of a revolution, securing asylum in Venezuela and moving their wealth to Venezuela by plane.
If a revolution in Iran is imminent, Putin may need to look for other suppliers pretty soon. China seems still very much occupied internally with its covid policy and India seems to be increasingly unhappy with Putinâs renewed nuclear threats, distancing itself more from Russia.
If there will be a revolution in Iran, where is Putin going to turn to for supply of drones and missiles to keep the attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure going? North Korea can only do so much.
Continue with artillery strikes, strategic bombing, defensive posturing, etc.
These latest attacks in Russiaâs campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure underscore one of the great asymmetries of this war: Russia can strike throughout Ukraine but Ukraine has no capability to hit Russia in its strategic depth. So far, it has made only a few strikes on targets located close to Ukraine in places such as Belgorod and Rostov on Don or in Russian occupied Crimea.
In international news, Hungary blocked a European Union financial aid package for Ukraine today worth up to 18 billion Euros. Ukraine desperately needs this package if it is to keep inflation down and keep financing the war. The Hungarian leadership, apart from being fans of Putin, are also trying to use this issue to force the EU to unblock money for Hungary that had been frozen by the EU due to Hungaryâs failure to make improvements on corruption, conflict of interest and other issues. This will be an important issue to watch. Financing wars is always difficult and inflation can seriously undermine even the most determined country.
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A week ago, 2 Russian military airbases where strategic bombers were located (used to bomb Ukraine) were hit by some upgraded Soviet era cruise missiles. One of those airbases is about as far from Ukraine as Moscow is (~500 km). Admittedly, the damage was limited and Ukraine probably doesnât have the capability to do this often or on a large scale.
Still, the Russian airforce seems to have moved those strategic bombers further away from Ukraine now.
Besides the issue of components supply, the brain drain from the partial mobilisation, and men fleeing the country from it, might also increase the challenge of domestic production. And the allegedly widespread corruption in military finances may be another hindrance.
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I doubt that Iran has sufficient industrial capacity to supply a significant amount of materiel to Russia. Consequently, I suspect that they also act as cutout for arms from China.
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As Russia seems to be willing to deliver fighter jets to Iran in return, it does look like Russia is eager to have those Iranian drones.
So, a target that is close to Ukraine and not in strategic depth.
If Moscow is not strategic depth, then what is?
A shipment of reserve munitions plus a regular shipment of a potion of in-country fabricated munitions wouldnât hurt Iran much. It would be enough to sustain Russiaâs bombardment on critical infrastructure throughout the winter, and would significantly delay Ukraining rebuilding.
I have doubts Iran would ship MRBMs or anything of strategic significance, but Russia ensuring its ability to maintain tempo would be enough. Tempo in this case appears to be holding the Luhansk to Kherson area and barraging Ukraine CI.
If things stay as they are right now throughout winter, Russia may launch another offensive into the Kyiv oblast. That would largely determine the outcome, as I suspect international support would out-pace whoever still supports Russia.
However, NATO may begin to slow support to Ukraine around then if internal pressures such as inflation are mounting. Countries such as Canada and the USA may become âboredâ of the war to the point of switching political rhetoric to internal issues (I already see a distinct drop of reporting on the war). âThe problem is not in my backyardâ.
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Support in Russia for the war also seems to be weakening. I donât know which side will be tired first.
Consider war as not like chess, but like go 
If simply striking the capital city meant anything, then the attack on Kyiv would have been devastating. The ability to âreach out and touchâ Moscow is interesting, but the drones that attacked Ryazan and Saratov only killed 3 people and damaged 2 planes (the damage was done by the debris of the destroyed drones). Unfortunately, from a military perspective, this is not a noteworthy attack. I would expect Russia to have increased its integrated air defence systems around Moscow already, which is why the strikes on the, unfortunately, small airstrips at Ryazan and Saratov likely succeeded, while an attack on a higher-value target wouldnât.
Strategic depth means hitting military production factories, oil/gas reserves, and refineries, power plants, major food production, etc.
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Hence why we will find out by spring.
Yesterday the other EU countries decided to go ahead with it without Hungary.
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Good to hear.
I shoulda checked the date of the article before posting.
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I thought it was expected that Russia would launch a winter offensive as soon as the ground freezes. Has that changed?
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A large-scale attack would be easier to conduct if Russia were to hold âas isâ, while continually destroying energy, communication and other infrastructure to severely weaken Ukraine as a whole.
Ukraine is dividing up time, energy and resources to aiding civilians and restoring power, heat, etc. and its military operations. Russia could be going for the âif you wound a soldier instead of killing them, then his country needs to devote doctors, medical supplies, time, money, etc to care for him, making him a burdenâ approach, but making civilians a burden to Ukraine.
Food shortages, injuries and deaths due to cold, no power, uncertainty in whether you live or not for another week, etc. could force civilians to take food, energy and maintenance away from military use.
That said, this requires Russia to be able to last the winter and for Ukraine to not gain any kind of âbalance-swingingâ equipment or capability over the next few months. I also donât particularly think Russia is capable of conducting an offensive in winter, as they risk losing what they have now. Personally, I donât think Putin will risk another loss on the scale of Kharkiv to save his ego.
But Iâve been wrong enough about Putin, and have said âhe wouldnât do thatâ only for him to do it a week later.
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In that regard, I guess even purely humanitarian aid will indirectly help Ukraineâs military.
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Which also conveniently doesnât aggravate or escalate NATOs involvement with the war. Western countries can send all the humanitarian aid they want and not become âentangledâ. So the more Russia strikes civilians, the more the rest of the world can get involved.
This is also why humanitarian aid is one of the more valuable things a country can do for a war-torn country.
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