If I had to guess, recently the “key moves” changed from using winrate to using score from Katago. So sometimes a move that losing a lot of points doesn’t affect the winrate because that player was already winning by a lot or it could be a handicap game for example.
There’s a chance the “explored moves” are still using winrate, which might be causing the mismatch.
For example E5 here might not be the biggest score drop, but it is a sizeable blip on the winrate.
In this case the second one on the list matches one of the red dots. I guess they won’t be in order of the game but ordered by size of the mistake in points.
It could be that the red dots are on the list further down if they are small mistakes in points but large in winrate (like the game switched from black winning to white winning and vice versa).
I haven’t checked the code though to be completely sure. @benjito might know 