Are you worried about coronavirus?

Back to the grocery this morning. They now have directional arrows taped to the floor. In spite of this, I saw more than one person moving in the wrong direction. I’ll be charitable here and attribute this to absent-mindedness and /or failing vision. It’s a mainly senior clientele after all.

On the other hand, a guy who must have been in his thirties or forties came up behind me and passed within maybe a foot and a half. As he went on his merry way his body language spoke of nonchalance. And I wondered if it would ever occur to him that one of us might have been taken by a fit of sneezing at that precise moment. One of those fits that can come on faster than you can react. Possibly he was lost in deep thought and had transported himself to the pre-corona era. But he just didn’t look very deep thoughtish.

I had a gaffe of my own at the checkout. They have these plastic separator things that you place on the conveyor to prevent confusion between your order and someone else’s. But you couldn’t reach one without violating space. So what I thought I’d do was position myself squarely on my side of the plexiglass and reach around. The cashier didn’t seem to think that was a good idea even though there appeared to be adequate spacing between me and the customer ahead of me. Looking back, I should have suggested that they remove those separators. Conflicting signals you know.

I noticed that they’ve gone back to playing old pop tunes over the p.a. system. It was Joe Jackson today. Oh alright.

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What a couple of dolts. I’m glad that community gave them the boot.

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There are 1 000 000 total confirmed cases today in the world
500 000 week before
250 000 one more week before

so, … 2 000 000 next week

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I was listening to our government Covid expert earlier today (they have a live conference daily).
He was asked by a journalist about the virus staying active until summer and eventually everyone getting sick, and he pointed out that the important thing is not everyone getting sick at the same time. And also that, people who get it and recover, could be used in the frontlines if a second wave comes. It felt like a silver lining, while having to be quarantined in my own house so that I don’t cause the death of a loved one.
If I end up having it for real, at least I get immunity and be able to help afterwards, if s*** hits the fan. (I still hope it’s just flu.)

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That is promising. On the other hand, Dr. Kim (8-minute mark in the posted video) mentions reactivation cases. Hopefully there’s more lasting immunity than reactivation.

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Based on the nothing I know about viruses, I’d say 5-7 days it’s possible someone hasn’t even recovered yet (so they were discharged early), or they are still too weak with a compromised immune system and have symptoms because of that or a cold etc. But to not get immunity, like with the flu that mutates each year (citation needed, I think that’s what’s happening and that’s why people need to vaccinate every year), it would have to mutate in 5-7 days which either can’t happen or we’re royally f–doomed.

EDIT: I just read this

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It doesn’t have to mutate that fast, but if you get infected by one strand of the virus and start helping in a hospital where people are infected with a slightly different strand, your resistance will no be as strong to those. And viruses are indeed excellent at fast mutation, which is why they’re still around in the first place. If they weren’t, we would not get sick so often.

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I’m having trouble understanding what the size of the numbers mean.

For example, I read this morning that 1900 people died in New York of CV in 72 hours

That sounds like an enormous number. But I can’t quite tell, because I don’t know

  • How many people died altogether in NYC that time? IE How much has the death rate increased because of CV?

  • How many people died of flu in that time? IE how does this compare to other things we don’t worry about

Does anyone know these numbers, or other ways to try to understand the significance of it at this time?

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I think the number of people under intensive care might be more important to judge the significance. If the health system is totally overloaded, the number of deaths will rise dramatically, because you will not get adequate care no matter what your health problem is.

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That sounds like an enormous number. But I can’t quite tell, because I don’t know

I do not not the seasonal flu numbers for NY, but for a similar question in FB I had to look up the numbers for Italy.
According to some articles I found (links in the end) in Italy, for this season ( October 2019, up until 23 Jan 2020 when the articles were written) there were 2768000 confirmed patients of the seasonal flu out of which 240 died.

If we do the math: 240/2768000 = 0.0000867052 = 0,008% that was the death rate of the seasonal flu at that timeframe in Italy

At this time of posting coronavirus in Italy has 115.242 confirmed coronavirus cases and 13.915 deaths, άρα 13.915/115.242 = 0.1207 = 12.07% (I should note this that in my original post days ago that number was 4.825/53.578 = 0.09 = 9% so things have gone downhill in Italy either in terms of testing or in terms of treating all those patients :confused: )

Obviously in other countries that took measures way faster the rates are much much lower, but since we are comparing seasonal flu in Italy, we have to compare it with the coronavirus in Italy, in order to be fair (and to approximate an answer to your question, because NY is taking a numerical path like Italy and not like South Korea, for example)

Now let us suppose that we have the same confirmed cases for the coronavirus as they had of seasonal flu and do the math ? With a collapsed health system and 12% ratio ? 2768000*0,1207 = 334097 people which is significantly larger than any seasonal flu outbreak ever in Italy (there had been years where they were hit hard and had 20000+ deaths from the seasonal flu. I guess that is why they invested so much in hospitals in recent years and got that seasonal flu death ratio down )

Even if we were in some way an influx of medical stuff and supplies in Italy and the death rate fell to 1% (as some estimates say is its more realistic number) then that would be 2768000*0,01 = 27680 people, but considering they are halfway there towards that number, that is highly unlikely now.

Sources:
www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
https://ilglobo.com/news/italy-reports-almost-500000-cases-of-the-flu-within-a-week-46676/

P.S.Note that in both cases the confirmed cases and deaths are being compared and no estimation is made for the actual numbers. Just like there are many coronavirus cases that go untested and unrecorded, the same goes for the seasonal flu. How many? I have no way of knowing that, so we compare the data we actually have.

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@Eugene, @JethOrensin I’d say the seasonal flu offers a good comparison, but:
-seasonal flu probably refers to the whole season, covid started later.
-tests are not available (and almost everyone is underreporting) so I’d guess many covid deaths are written down as something else.

Our expert mentioned yesterday that, in comparison, if we hadn’t taken the strict measures of staying inside early on etc, we would have 2.200 deaths by now and not 50.

Although I think the numbers don’t say much on their own, maybe they’ll push the people to stay inside, because in some cases they were avoidable deaths, if measures had been taken earlier and the people had acted more responsibly.

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Mortality rate for USA is 8.15 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_mortality_rate) Population of NYC is about 8 500 000. So every year 8.15*8 500 = 70 000 die. 70 000/365 = 190 per day.

I couldn’t find the mortality rate for NYC alone. Are you sure your information about 1900 people in 72 hours is correct? Wikipedia says that 1941 was the cumulative number of deaths for the whole NY state at 01.04.

No, I can’t be sure it’s correct - who can be sure of anything they read eh?

Today’s local newspaper:

I see that it says “New York” so I guess we could take that as New York State… but still, we seem to be talking about what - 3x as many people died as normally would? Wow eh.

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How have Singapore managed to maintain such a low rate of infection while keeping schools, offices and restaurants open?

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Apparently at some point they had to check your temperature twice a day if you were in an office building. I don’t know the current rules so I can’t give a comparison. This was also closer to the start of the coronavirus, before it got bad in the US.

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Here the government isn’t gonna help financially people or businesses so we’re screwed economically (too).

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For New York State normal would be about 450 deaths per day. 1350 in 72 hours. Your article says that the number doubled to more then 1900 in three days so about 950 died (950 died earlier). So it was comparable to normal. Still pretty much because people continue to die from other reasons and it will probably become worse.

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Great info - it’s amazing how a correct appreciation for the numbers helps understand what’s happening.

That being said, I think we understand from this that normally the overall death rate is about the same as just those that died from CV! So we gather that in NY State, the VC doubled in 3 days, and the overall number of people dieing is twice as many as normal! Is that right?

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Yes, that is what I think.

Also that the number of deaths from COVID19 will grow exponentially. 2000 today will be 4000 in ~2 days, and then 8000, and so on.

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