Game 2
- Question: If there’s a winner, will it be black?
- MD5 hash of {salt}: 6a67b261a79843cdd320143f3ec4e242
- MD5 hash of {gameId}{salt}: a53fcbd6e6ca9922b9373a591c9ae6b3
yes. black wins.
this game is more calm
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Yeah predictions are crazy. In the 20th century a group of people said there will be temperature problems all over the world. Now look at us.
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The ongoing topic here is clearly the magic powers of OP and not a analysis of past game data.^^
Game 2 - Result
- salt: Y5RrH7k4hKM9
- gameLink: karfen2019 vs. Sviatopolk
Game 3 - Setup
- Question: Which color will end up with more points?
- MD5 hash of {salt}: 26296fe73b0f031149cf7e2a0932c678
- MD5 hash of {gameId}{salt}: 14180689cd2e1411740605edbfbc5a6c
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I just noticed the phrasing of the question doesn’t really handle resignations and timeouts. 
Can we consider the result given by the score estimator too in that case? Under the circumstance that the game is not very close and the score estimator consistently predicts the same winner.
Yes… I’m terrible… 
to the next question- white will have more points
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Game 3 - Result
- salt: md4zy5unayFj
- gameLink: vgn2 vs. VanillaPlayer
- prediction: correct
White won by 41.5, so I’m glad the game went to scoring. And congratulations, another correct prediction. Now you’ve correctly predicted 2 of 3 outcomes.
4 Likes
2/3, looks like OP really has supernatural magic prediction powers
I understand that the previous remark is sarcastic, but I just wanted to make a note on the statistics. In short, 3 samples is not enough to conclude anything.
As a baseline, attempting to predict the outcome of these games by flipping coins would yield the following results:
- 12.5% (1/8) chance of getting 0 games correct
- 37.5% (3/8) chance of getting 1 games correct
- 37.5% (3/8) chance of getting 2 games correct
- 12.5% (1/8) chance of getting 3 games correct
Another way to look at it, flipping coins will get at least two out of three correct 50% of the time.
5 Likes
Since the overall result will depend on the interpretation of the hexagrams, no conclusion about the source of the result is possible. If a highly significant, positive result were achieved, we would have no way of knowing whether it came from the oracle, or, theoretically, from the inherent “psychic” powers of the operator. In other words, the outcome of each trial does not come directly from the oracle, because it is filtered through the operator.
Interesting results. When I first started learning predictions, the percentages were worse than coin flips (later, the percentages went higher than a coin toss)
- 28.57% (2/7) correct guesses (first attempts)
- 38.46% (5/13) total correct guesses (initial attempts at the method)
- 62.5% (15/24) overall percentage considering previous mistakes (continued statistics + further learning)
If our experiment lasts for a month or more, I will try to make my predictions more specific, explaining in detail what exactly the victory or defeat will entail (whether it will be a surrender or a win, a disconnect, etc.), and specific results such as invasions, bans on creating eyes, and so on.
I am currently trying to understand these mechanisms, but it requires much more time for data collection and analysis.
Probably, if I had an assistant like the thinkers of ancient times, with whom I could discuss various methods and quickly track predictions in just two lines, things would go much faster. As it is, this will take at least 2 months, likely longer.
if you believe strong enough, everything is possible, the matrix will bend around you
I don’t believe those would be considered separable by practitioners, though I could be wrong
God, you truly are insufferable. I personally don’t believe OP can accurately predict the outcome in the way they claim either. But what do you think you are accomplishing? Do you think writing snarky comments will change anyone’s mind? You said OP is a troll yet the only purpose your comments seem to serve is to upset someone else.
When someone makes a testable claim then testing the claim is a perfectly reasonable way to find the truth. Even if you are sure of the outcome, it’s still a far better way to demonstrate it to the other person than sarcastically calling them names and making fun of them.
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Just playing my role in the game here
Thats nice, you don’t believe in reallife magic powers without beeing so insufferable, thats good
Game 4 - Question
- Question: Assuming there’s a winner, who will it be? Black or white?
- MD5 hash of {salt}: dd094d386a2d576522f66be5dd7c4231
- MD5 hash of {gameId}{salt}: edbd9d5cbe0fa137663df463a6902aa0
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Black must win
By developing the theory of specifics (which is most likely a mistake, but I’m curious), Black himself makes more experienced steps, and therefore wins.
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