I’ll ignore the specifics, as they are harder to test. But I don’t mind reading them.
Game 6 - Question
- Question: In a game of go, usually black or white wins. Who wins, if that applies to this game too?
- MD5 hash of {salt}: 75405b732042b55be2317a6330470330
- MD5 hash of {gameId}{salt}: e08f436f62fae189ab17dac6c47bed50
oh… this seems more difficult to me. This game should be aggressive.
Let it be black.
Game 7 - Question
- Question: If this game ends with a victory, who will be declared as the winner?
- MD5 hash of {salt}: 30c8f18b36719c1d6ee58a950c209869
- MD5 hash of {gameId}{salt}: 752989781cc0df3489fe49a0b87bdd1e
The white side will win.
Regarding specific actions leading to victory… I can see a cutting, but it’s so strange… it’s like cutting and subsequent division of territory by groups (but this seems extremely odd in the hexagrams).
Results of Games 4 - 7
Game 4
- Prediction: Black wins
- Result: White wins
- Salt: kwxUWmXxGzc6
- Game: whitearremer vs. hellogo2023
Game 5
- Prediction: White wins
- Result: White wins
- Salt: fDnDUnjYUGH7
- Game: çay zoo vs. memster1001
Game 6
- Prediction: Black wins
- Result: Black wins
- Salt: wtuTbJMhLMaT
- Game: yomega vs. woongisme31
Game 7
- Prediction: White wins
- Result: Black wins
- Salt: FASLFbrU5eEW
- Game: Escarmouche
So far you’ve correctly predicted 4 of 7 games.
Can you describe the process you are using to arrive at the predictions? I’m curious.
Through calculation, two hexagrams are obtained, within which there are two more interwoven hexagrams. This results in a total of six hexagrams. Some are classified as primary, while others are secondary. Next, calculations are performed based on the five elements, analyzing signs in the context of where the person came from, what they are wearing, the weather outside, and the location of the diviner. (Signs found online are extremely scarce, so a significant portion of the information is simply excluded.) Naturally, this affects the forecasts in a negative way.
Each hexagram is associated with a particular person, an object, and a tendency (for example, water flows downward; in a divination in Weiqi, this means that stones will be placed from top to bottom gradually). Then, there is analysis, simple mathematics, and sometimes reading the text associated with the hexagram’s position, though this may not always be necessary. And that’s a general overview of the process.
Personally I measure the current tilt of the earth plate and predict based on that. I have a 78,4% (± 5.43%, k=2) accuracy in professional games. (I believe the best possible prediction is 75%, because its such a nice number.)
The uncertainity increases, the lower the ranks are.
You may notice that there are two main sources of uncertainity; one is for the mean value of earth tilt (vertical and horizontal), and the other is for the rank of players.
The higher the rank of the person is, the lower is their ‘own’ uncertainity; means the calculation is more accurate, especially since the uncertainities multiply.
On the other side, the uncertainity of the earth tilt is always more or less the same. Although it has a kinda high variation since there is no official data (oh wonder) and I have to help me on my own… I yet have to find out if the vibration speed of the plate has an impact on my measures.
Anyhow; it proves why my predictions for lower ranked games are more off.
The big question is now; in which way are our methods correlated.
I see obvious connections between earth-plate tilt and
[…]the weather outside, and the location of the diviner.
for example.
Well, they probably don’t match up at all. In my method, local indications are more important. For example, if you are sitting near water, the hexagram related to water is strengthened. Suppose a fire hexagram appears in an unfavorable form—it predicts misfortune. However, if someone comes to you from the north and you meet near rivers, then no harm will come; instead, it will bring happiness (water douses the fire).
Large-scale factors related to geological layers are not considered in my method, so I can’t answer your question about that.
As for the location of the diviner, if a question is asked from behind, it indicates that the question will concern the past.
However, your method is quite intriguing. It’s likely that predicting becomes more difficult when you’re not in a good state, correct? If that’s the case, then I understand some of the fundamental factors that influence prediction.
Did you just mix usage of a comma and a period for indicating the decimal positions?
What do you mean by “k=2”? Are you saying that is your 95% confidence interval?
I have been lurking off and on for the past couple months and was interested in this particular thread, so I’ve been checking back more. Will any more games be divined?? I’d love to see more data gathered!
There will be more games in the coming days.
I also have been lurking but with a slightly different interest.
You said you used an IChing methodology “according to Shao Yun, a Song fortuneteller”. This song dynasty Shao Yun must be referring to the Song dynasty Shao Yong (reference). Can you confirm this?
It seems the has one the most important Go poems from ancient China called “Great Chant on Observing Weiqi” - link.
I just thought that it was cool coincidence (yes, yes, there is no such thing according to Randi).
Also, I can’t read Chinese, do you know any English books on Shao Yong, his poetry and/or his IChing method?
That’s questionable. “Great Chant on Observing Weiqi ” (觀棋大吟) was more of a “showpiece” with so many references, and as a poem was quite impressive (as well as its length, but length doesn’t equal quality). But for its “connection” and “principles” about Go, it is on the surface level at best.
Yes, that’s him, the noble man. (I’m writing from a new account, so don’t be too alarmed.)
The coincidence is indeed interesting; I also enjoy observing Weiqi, as I learn to predict from it. I was previously aware of his “Song on Observing Weiqi,” but I haven’t read it because there is no translation into Russian. I’ve translated parts from Wenyan, and it reflects not only philosophy with historical intertwining but also his predictive practices, like the concepts of host and guest, which I use. Well, I use them (seeing the current accuracy of about 50% is terrible , so I’m researching the reasons; my previous accuracy was higher, and this will take time, so games are postponed for a while…).
There was a translation of a book on prediction using Shao Yong’s system (I mean the English version). You might want to look for it; I’ve definitely heard of it. However, I can’t speak to the quality of the translation, so be cautious about that.
But! I have a scientific article dedicated to his method, although it’s not specifically about the Book of Changes, it is extremely interesting. (Given my limited English, I can’t translate it, and I’m also afraid of distortions in translation. ) So, I’m offering this article at your feet. Please read it; I hope it will be valuable.
Monumenta Serica - Volume LXI (2013) (PETER K. BOL: On Shao Yong’s Method for Observing Things
論邵雍之觀物法)
A good English translation for “Great Chant on Observing Weiqi ” can be found in:
Chen, Z. Y. (2006). Shao Yong’s (1011-77)" Great Chant on Observing" Weiqi": An Archetype of Neo-Confucian Poetry. Journal of the American Oriental Society, 126(2), 199-221.
I am sure you can find the article (especially if you are Russian, ahem sci-hub).
The automated translation posted by Counting_Zenist feels very very off.
Thank you for the suggested article. I will read it shortly.
I wish you all the best, friend.
What I linked is the original, not a translation. It was written in Classical Chinese
And I can post it in full here
人有精遊藝,予嘗觀弈棋。
筭餘知造化,著外見幾微。
好勝心無已,爭先意不低。
當人盡賓主,對面如蠻夷。
財利激於衷,喜怒見於頄。
生殺在於手,與奪指於頤。
戾不殊冰炭,和不侔塤篪。
義不及朋友,情不通夫妻。
珠玉出懷袖,龍蛇走肝脾。
金湯起樽俎,劍戟交幈幃。
白晝役鬼神,平地蟠蛟螭。
空江響雷雹,陸海誅鯨鯢。
寒暑同舒慘,昏明共蔽虧。
山河燦於地,星斗會璇璣。
因睹輸贏勢,翻驚寵辱蹊。
高卑易裁製,返覆難拘羈。
心跡既一判,利害不兩提。
卷舒當要會,取捨在須斯。
智者傷於詐,信者失於椎。
真偽之相雜,名實之都隳。
得者失之本,福為禍之梯。
乾坤支作訟,離坎變成睽。
弧矢相凌犯,言辭共詆欺。
何嘗無勝負,未始絕興衰。
前日之所是,今日之或非。
今日之所強,明日之或羸。
以古觀後世,終天露端倪。
以今觀往昔,何止乎庖犧。
堯舜行揖讓,四凶猶趄趑。
湯武援干戈,三老誠有譏。
雖臯陶陳謨,而伊周獻規。
曾未免矣夫,療骨而傷肌。
仁為名所敗,義為利所擠。
治亂不自已,因革徒從宜。
與賢不與子,賢愚生瑕玼。
與子不與賢,子孫生瘡痍。
或苗民逆命,或有扈阻威。
或羿浞起釁,或管蔡造疑。
或商人征葛,或周人乘黎。
或鳴條振旅,或牧野搴旗。
灼見夏台日,曾照升自陑。
安知羑里月,不照逾孟師。
厲王奔於彘,幽王死於驪。
平王遷於洛,赧王敗於伊。
或盟於召陵,或會於黃池。
或戰於長岸,或弒於乾谿。
或入於鄢郢,或棲於會稽。
或屠於大梁,或入於臨淄。
五霸共吞噬,七雄相鞭笞。
暴秦滅六國,楚漢決雄雌。
天盡於有日,地極於無涯。
遐爾都包括,縱橫悉指揮。
井田方奕奕,兵甲正累累。
易之以阡陌,畫之以效畿。
銷之以鋒謫,焚之以書詩。
罷侯以置守,強幹而弱枝。
重兵棲上郡,長城慚邊陲。
自謂磐石固,萬世無已而。
回天於指掌,割地於階墀。
視入若螻蟻,用財如沙泥。
阿房宮未畢,祖龍車至戲。
驪山卒未放,陳涉兵自蘄。
灞上心非淺,鴻門氣正滋。
鹹陽起煙焰,南鄭奮熊羆。
人鬼同交錯,風雲共慘淒。
項強劉未勝,得鹿莫知誰。
約法三章在,收兵五國隨。
廟堂成筭重,帷幄坐籌奇。
廣武貔貅怒,鴻溝虎豹飢。
滎陽留紀信,垓下別虞姬。
三傑才方展,千年運正熙。
山川舊形勝,日月新光輝。
正朔承三統,車書混四維。
方隅無割據,窮僻有羈縻。
後族爭行日,軍分南北司。
當時無佐命,何以救顛隮。
百戰方全日,長兵震天垂。
豈知巫蠱事,禍起劉屈氂。
冢宰司衡日,重明正渺瀰。
見危能致命,無忝寄孤遺。
劇賊欺孤日,行同狐與狸。
宮中凌寡婦,殿上逐嬰兒。
龍戰知何所,冰堅正在茲。
潰堤雖患水,禦水敢忘堤。
東漢重晞日,昆陽屋瓦飛。
幽憂新室鬼,狼籍漸台屍。
鄗邑追隆準,新安掃赤眉。
再逢火德王,復睹漢官儀。
竇鄧緣中饋,閻梁挾牝雞。
經何功殆盡,至董業都糜。
河洛少煙火,京都多蒿藜。
長天有鳥度,白骨無人悲。
城有隍須復,羊無血可刲。
大廈之將顛,非一木可支,
孟德提先手,仲謀藉世資。
玄德志不遂,竟終於涕洟。
西晉尚清談,大計懸品題。
婦人執國命,骨肉生癘疵。
二主蒙霜露,五胡犯鼎彝。
世無管夷吾,令人重歔欷。
廣陌羌塵合,中州胡馬嘶。
龍光射牛斗,日影化虹蜺。
闢草來洛汭,墾田趨江湄。
二百有四年,方駕而並馳。
東晉分南尾,時或產靈芝。
凡經五改命,至陳卒昌隋。
國破西風暮,城荒春草萋。
長江空滿目,行客浪沾衣。
後魏開北首,孝文幾緝綏。
河陰鏇有變,國分為東西。
爾朱奪高氏,宇文滅北齊。
及隋始並陳,四海為藩籬。
泛忭公私匱,征遼士卒疲。
有身皆厭苦,無口不嗟咨。
處處稱年號,人人思亂離。
中原未有主,誰識非鹿麋。
千一難知日,天人相與期。
龍騰則雲靄,虎步則風淒。
母后專朝日,相仍絮宮闈。
可差恆彥范,不殺武三民。
繡嶺喧歌舞,漁陽動鼓鼙。
太平其可傲,徒罪一楊妃。
劍閣離天日,潼關漏虎貔。
兩京皆覆沒,九廟鹹傾欹。
樂極則悲至,恩交則害攜。
事無事奈何,舉目誰與比。
自此藩方盛,都無臣子祗。
恃功而不朝,討賊以為詞。
各擁部兵盛,誰憐王室卑。
邀朝遷姑息,觀社稷安危。
攻取非君命,誅求本自肥。
乘輿時播越,扈從或參差。
尾大知難運,鞭長豈易麾。
長奸憂必至,養虎害終貽。
國步可顛沛,君心空忸怩。
時來花爛漫,勢去葉離披。
十姓分中夏,五家遞通逵。
徒明星有爛,但東方未晞。
才返長蘆鎮,鏇驅胡柳陂。
絳霄兵自取,玄武火何痴。
中渡降堪罪,欒城死可嗤。
太原朝見人,劉子夕聞啼。
事體重重別,人情鏇鏇移。
棄灰猶隱火,朽骨尚稱龜。
譎詐多陰中,艱憂常自罹。
撓防膚革易,患救腹心遲。
語禍不鏇踵,言傷浪噬臍。
欲升還隕落,將墜卻扶持。
瞑眩人皆惡,康寧世共晞。
須能蠲重疾,始可謂良醫。
久廢田磽确,難行路險巇。
不逄真主出,何以見施為。
家國邅迍極,君臣際會稀。
上天生假手,我宋遂開基。
睿弄隨方設,群豪引領歸。
迄今百餘載,兵革民不知。
成改須歸命,興亡自系時。
天機不常設,國手無常施。
往事都陳跡,前書略可依。
比觀之博弈,不差乎毫釐。
消長天鏇運,陰陽道範圍。
吉凶人變化,動靜事樞機。
疾走者先顛,遲茂都後萎。
與其交受害,不若兩忘之。
求魚必以筌,獲兔必以罤。
得之不能忘,羊質而虎皮。
道大聞老子,才難語仲尼。
造形能自悟,當局豈憂迷。
黑白焉能浼,死生奚足猗。
應機如破的,迎刃不容絲。
勿訝傍人笑,休防冷眼窺。
既能通妙用,何必患多岐。
同道道亦得,先天天弗違。
窮理以盡性,放言而遣辭。
視外方知簡,聽余始識希。
大羹無以和,玄酒莫能漓。
上兵不可伐,巧曆不可推。
善言不可道,逸駕不可追。
兄弟專乎愛,父子主於慈。
天下亦可授,此著不可私。
They are even rhyming. And you can compare in the article paper you mentioned
"Shao Yong’s "Great Chant on Observing “Weiqi”: An Archetype of Neo-Confucian Poetry, they are words for words. Every 2 sets of 5 words (10 words are one sentence), and they are the basis for rhyming, and there are so many ancient references even the translations in that article just touch about half of it (how those words are rhyming affecting how the sentences are constructed as well as how to word them, to form same length blocks).