Kibitz for Diplomatic Go: The First Game

[yebellz]

Great end game discussion going on in the game thread!

I think @le_4TC already hashed out a lot of the points that I would have liked to make:

Diplomatic Go The First Game

There isn’t really any intrinsic motivation from the game rules. But I think Haze deciding on wanting to do something (whatever it is, “I want to prevent a draw”, “I want to stay alive as long as possible”, “I want to capture le_4TC”), and then trying their best to execute that, is very much preferable to just making random moves or passing. It’s up to Haze of course, just passing is also valid. But maybe being able to have a big impact on the game result is motivation in itself. Edited to add…

Current board position

Let’s look at the current area score

• I’ll assume that the inside stones at A6 and F2 will be removed, and that all other stones are hypothetically alive for now
• le_4TC has 26 points
• martin3141 has 25 points
• Vsotvep has 21 points
• Haze has 5 points from very tenuous stones
• There are dame available to grab at A1, J3, D7, G9
• Of course, filling D7 and G9 would eliminate Haze freeing up five more points of dame that would be up for grabs between martin3141 and Vsotvep

Now, where does the game go from here?

• In theory, any player could still be eliminated, but I think that the chances of le_4TC or Vsotvep being eventually eliminated are very slim, and omit analysis of such possibilities
• Unless martin3141 is eliminated, le_4TC is limited to a max of 28 points (by taking both dame at A1 and J3)
• However, if Haze is eliminated, which I think is likely, that would free up 5 more points, of which martin3141 is likely to grab a few. And, of course, it’s possible that martin3141 also gets the dame at A1 instead.
• Thus, if Haze goes, it’s quite possible for martin3141 and le_4TC to be tied in points (maybe at 28 or 27), or for one of them to be slightly ahead of the other (maybe by only a point or two).

Vsotvep could play kingmaker in this endgame:

• By not contesting the dame freed up by the capture of Haze, he could give martin3141 a lead in points over le_4TC, and by refusing to work with le_4TC, he could hand the win to martin3141. This is hypothetical leverage that Vsotvep could exert on le_4TC in order to get le_4TC to vote for a 3-way draw.
• Alternatively, with martin3141 in the lead, he could instead work with le_4TC to eliminate martin3141 and reduce the game to a two-player fight over the cleared space. Thus, this is potential leverage to get martin3141 to vote for a 3-way draw.
• Hence, by making threats to throw the game to the other, Vsotvep seems to have the leverage as kingmaker to force a 3-way draw.
• However, Vsotvep may instead choose to eliminate martin3141, which would give him a potential shot at winning. However, maybe le_4TC would have a slight edge in that two-player fight. Speculating about the nature of these players, I think this is the most likely path.
• Whether they end up going down any of these routes depends on their individual risk tolerance/aversion.