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Private kibitz log from 
Vsotvep
Iāve changed my mind yet again. With Maharani playing D7, it feels more doable to attack Martin, and Iām still seeing a chance to win in that scenario. So I just have to go for it, even though I donāt really want to betray Martin, itās in my best interest to do it. And itāll be more fun than a draw 
The plan is to eliminate Haze during this round. The obvious move that Haze has is H7, so that will be my first move. My second move is G9, which should collide with le_4TC, since heāll play G9 first. My third move will be D8, which should also collide, but with Maharani, if they follow my advice. In case G9 is blocked on the first move, le_4TC will play D8 as his second move.
All in all, it looks like Haze will only have a chance of survival by playing H6 after playing H7, or by playing H1, which is not in their interest, as it will make le_4TC harder to kill.
So my moves:
- H7
- G9
- D8
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Welcome to the private kibitz thread @Maharani!
Thank you for playing and especially for taking over a very tough position.
5 Likes
I guess the next move should be g1 for martin. Hopefully it collides with le_4tc stone. Then maybe haze can play g1 to capture the white stone and reduce the eyespace. Or maybe they can play in another order. Hard to know if say le_4tc and Vsotvep will try to play both moves at g9 and d7 simultaneously.
A question I still wonder is when do players get eliminated, is it if they have no stones at the end of the round no stones on the board at some point, including say first second third preference place after collisions?
I still donāt understand if Vsotvep gets a better position if Martin was eliminated rather than le_4tc. I just imagine drawing a line across the board, at either row 5 or column E. It feels like if martin is eliminated, le_4tc is probably guaranteed about 35ish points. I would say Vsotvep needs to at least get points beyond the main diagonal A9-E5 to match that, maybe its close but I imagine le_4tc leading.
If le_4tc was eliminated at some point, before various betrayals and things, or say somehow now with teamwork, maybe Martin has 25 points, and Vsotvep 21 ish points. E3 looks like a fine point then for both and depending how the killer blows are landed maybe Vsotvep ends with a stone there or in F2 is area. Suppose they secure 15/16 points in the bottom left, I think it ends up a very close game - maybe even the dame could swing it with Chinese rules.
Maybe something like the above, and maybe the person who gets the better eye points when the groups are captured can come out on top. (or sneak in some dame while waiting to capture the group? - I did this for Vsotvep on the left image )
I think though even now, provided that le_4tc doesnāt get to play g1 itās very hard for them to resist capture from three other players working together right? le_4tc couldnāt capture Haze solo and a lot of other points are eyes and would be suicide to play in.
4 Likes
Note: this was written yesterday, but Iām only just relaying it now.
Private kibitz log from Vsotvep
Just in case Iām not here tonight, or in case I might be here but had a few drinks and forget to move:
- H4
- J3
- D7
Some reasoning:
First fact: Martin cannot be killed without two people collaborating. Unless Martin commits suicide (not unlikely if he can use it to try to force a draw), there is no reason le_4TC would help me kill Martin, or the other way around, if itās not in our benefit.
Second fact: le_4TC has 27 points, assuming he gets A1, and H1 gets removed at some point.
Third fact: I have at least 21 points, assuming G9 will become mine at some point.
I therefore need to find 6 points, or le_4TC will not agree with capturing Martin.
Before Martin is captured, I can make sure that Haze gets removed, and that le_4TC does not have any stones in the freed area. There is no way they could prevent this, except by capturing me.
By playing A8, le_4TC has made his throw-in capturable. Without Martin choosing sides, my stone at A6 will be unremovable for le_4TC, but on the other hand, I have a way to remove his two stones.
H4 and J3 are vital: if le_4TC gets both those points, I have no way to get the same number of points by filling up Hazeās gap. Therefore it is vital that I obtain at least one of those two points. H4 will be more useful in the unlikely scenario that I end up working together with Martin and Haze to capture le_4TC, so H4 will be my first move. Without it I see no way to convince le_4TC to capture Martin.
The scariest scenario at the moment, is that le_4TC plays J3, while I play H4: this can prompt the three of them to capture my group, which is great for le_4TC, but also raises Martinās win chances. Haze will probably go along with it as well, since theyāve got nothing to lose, and I assume Haze is vengeful. Iām basically putting all my eggs into the basket that le_4TC does not play J3 on this move.
Now that I think of it, if I donāt get to play H4, it almost certainly must be because le_4TC blocks it, which means itās likely heāll play J3 as the second move. Iāll have to play J3 second to block, or I will lose on points. G9 is not a priority in this scenario: if Haze plays it, my third move should be D7 to capture
2 Likes
I actually forgot that this could be an option, that le_4tc could just be ahead on the board as is, and just not try to capture either. Tbh though, if le_4tc is in the lead, they donāt really have a good reason not to try to capture any of the other two players martin or vsotvep, except in the case le_4tc is unconditionally alive - 4 solid eyes.
I now think the only way that someone doesnāt get captured is if le_4tc is alive unconditionally and waits for scoring. Otherwise you could just threaten to ally with vsotvep as martin, or vice versa, itās losing outright vs a chance of winning. I donāt think le_4tc (or I) would necessarily want to accept a draw from a winning position, but then again as yebellz has been saying that depends on the players and their āutilityā functions etc.
I still donāt see why capturing le_4tc is off the table, and has been for many rounds.
I think this becomes even more unlikely or close to impossible if le_4tc can get g1 and g2.
ā¦ I think vsotvep with 3 eyes is probably fine. Itās likely haze has to die to even fill the outside liberty at g9, and then the other three points need to be played simultaneously (which I guess is hard or impossible to block - kind of like with rock paper scissors type strategy, where you could accidentally fill your own liberty because thats what you thought an opponent would do)
I think I agree with this one though as a backup to capture haze and gain liberties.
3 Likes
martin3141 taking at H1 in round 26 was ultimately a gift to 
le_4TC, who is now in great shape to solidify 4 eyes and invincibility.
Assuming that le_4TC eventually does solidify four eyes and clears out 
Hazeās stone at F2, he will have 26 points, while not even counting the dame at J3 and A1.
If no one else is eliminated, le_4TC will win.
5 Likes
Was just checking the other thread now! Thanks for posting the board here
This is ouch for me. I think le_4tc is likely unconditionally alive. G2 is a clear next move, but I guess that g2 and f1 are probably miai. It would take all of Haze, martin and Vsotvep to play F1,G2 and H1 and even then it might be tricky to stop the fourth eye. The best they can hope for is probably the following with all chains ānewā
Initially I was thinking Haze and Martin might have had some trick planned with the collision at G1, but it just looks like an accident, especially with B9 played following it up. It feels like B9 was not urgent especially with the liberty at D7.
I think Vsotvep misjudged le_4tcās priorities and is thinking maybe too diplomatically for the endgame rather than tactically short term.
I like Hazeās fighting spirit to still play F2. I mean I guess thereās only a handful of legal moves but even still!
4 Likes
Love the swagger!
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I also think itās a great response
It does make me want to find a turn order which kills le_4tc though 
Maybe something like
M: 1.H1 2.G2 3.F1?
V: 1.F1 2.H1 3.G2?
H: 1. G2 2. F1 3. H1?
Thereās possibly a bit too many variations. In theory le_4tc can block one of first moves, which would suicide the other stones. The other trick might be to intentionally collide the first move like le_4tc 1.C1 and then get to play 2. G1 and recapture all the stones reverting the board position back - is that legal?
Definitely would require reading out the variaitons.
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Actuallyā¦ I think I miscounted.
If martin3141 secures the dame D7 and A1, and eventually captures Vsotvepās stone A6, he would have 27 points. Of course, he would only have two eyes and could be vulnerable, however, Vsotvep could play kingmaker and let martin3141 win.
So, I guess we will have to see if Vsotvep works toward eliminating martin3141 instead.
Without counting the dame at J3 and G9, Vsotvep currently has 21 points. So, his chances of winning hinges entirely on how much spoils he could potentially get from eliminating martin3141 and Haze.
3 Likes
The board can cycle, but if the same position is reached after three rounds, the game proceeds immediately to scoring with all stones alive. Maybe I should have made the threshold a bit higher to avoid pathologically ending the game a bit too early. However, it is also pretty easy to avoid cycling by filling a dame or throwing in a stone elsewhere.
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Testy exchange between Vsotvep and Haze in the game thread.
It seems highly likely that Haze gets eliminated in this game, so they have little to lose, and maybe they just want to tank Vsotvep as well.
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Great end game discussion going on in the game thread!
I think @le_4TC already hashed out a lot of the points that I would have liked to make:
Letās look at the current area score
- Iāll assume that the inside stones at A6 and F2 will be removed, and that all other stones are hypothetically alive for now
le_4TC has 26 points
martin3141 has 25 points
Vsotvep has 21 points
Haze has 5 points from very tenuous stones- There are dame available to grab at A1, J3, D7, G9
- Of course, filling D7 and G9 would eliminate Haze freeing up five more points of dame that would be up for grabs between martin3141 and Vsotvep
Now, where does the game go from here?
- In theory, any player could still be eliminated, but I think that the chances of le_4TC or Vsotvep being eventually eliminated are very slim, and omit analysis of such possibilities
- Unless martin3141 is eliminated, le_4TC is limited to a max of 28 points (by taking both dame at A1 and J3)
- However, if Haze is eliminated, which I think is likely, that would free up 5 more points, of which martin3141 is likely to grab a few. And, of course, itās possible that martin3141 also gets the dame at A1 instead.
- Thus, if Haze goes, itās quite possible for martin3141 and le_4TC to be tied in points (maybe at 28 or 27), or for one of them to be slightly ahead of the other (maybe by only a point or two).
Vsotvep could play kingmaker in this endgame:
- By not contesting the dame freed up by the capture of Haze, he could give martin3141 a lead in points over le_4TC, and by refusing to work with le_4TC, he could hand the win to martin3141. This is hypothetical leverage that Vsotvep could exert on le_4TC in order to get le_4TC to vote for a 3-way draw.
- Alternatively, with martin3141 in the lead, he could instead work with le_4TC to eliminate martin3141 and reduce the game to a two-player fight over the cleared space. Thus, this is potential leverage to get martin3141 to vote for a 3-way draw.
- Hence, by making threats to throw the game to the other, Vsotvep seems to have the leverage as kingmaker to force a 3-way draw.
- However, Vsotvep may instead choose to eliminate martin3141, which would give him a potential shot at winning. However, maybe le_4TC would have a slight edge in that two-player fight. Speculating about the nature of these players, I think this is the most likely path.
- Whether they end up going down any of these routes depends on their individual risk tolerance/aversion.
2 Likes
I also understand Martins frustration, and would probably be considering resigning if in his shoes also. If the other players wanted another round to try something out, maybe wait a few turns but I understand the want to resign.
2 Likes
Private kibitz log from Vsotvep
Round 28
None of us are in a real hurry. I need to prevent the three of them working together to capture me, which can happen in multiple ways: I could play G9 and le_4TC J3, or Haze could play G9 and le_4TC J3, or I play J3 and Haze plays G9. All of those options are dangerous, and I donāt want to risk it (although I think the chance is pretty small both Martin and le_4TC would want to capture me).
If this plan exists, then le_4TC will play J3 this round, and Haze might try to get G9 in as the 2nd or 3rd move. Iāll play D7, which should capture Haze in case this plan is happening. I will play D7 as my third move, and try nothing else. Iāve got not much to lose, I think.
I think I should talk about this plan with le_4TC, so that if he chooses to betray me, heād do it in a way that makes sure Haze gets captured anyway.
My moves
- D8
- D9
- D7
2 Likes
It seems that Vsotvep is not thinking so far out about the endgame and is more preoccupied about the remote possibility that he may be eliminated.
Note that D8 and D9 are intentional collisions with existing stones, so he is hoping that D7 either slips in as the last choice, or someone else fills it before then.
Looking back again at the potential endgame, I think that an eventual elimination of both martin3141 and Haze might still give le_4TC a strong edge to take the victory.
If Vsotvep is risk adverse, and his recent kibitz logs seems to indicate that he might be, I think his best path would be to eliminate Haze, but then allow martin3141 to get a higher score than le_4TC. Then, he can leverage his way into a 3-way draw with the threats as I described earlier.
4 Likes