Robots in Terrihill: Werewolf Game 3.0

Forum Games
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I was truly shocked to learn that we killed a human – our detective @李建澔2 – last night, before I had even learned how to pronounce his name. And then the worst happened. As I already expected, our protector @Gia was killed, which is not only sad and tragic, but also leaves us with a quite difficult situation.

There are five people left: We already know that Leira is a robot, that I am the assaulter and HHG is an innocent human, so either @yebellz or @ginger2008 must be the other robot.
It would be easy to point to ginger, who didn’t say much during the previous days, which is quite suspicious. But let’s keep in mind that this might as well have to do with little online time, living in a different timezone than most of us, and last but not least, his young age and therefore little experience with stochastics. And even though yebellz has been (seemingly?) very supportive the whole time, we can’t know for sure that this was not the masterly camouflage of an intelligent machine.

If you all think about it, you will come to the same conclusion as I - we humans will only win this fight if we choose correctly between ginger and yebellz. If we kill the wrong person, we are doomed. There is no second chance for this decision. We might delay it one more day, but we will eventually have to make it.

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Let’s roll a die!
@discobot 2d1

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Hi! To find out what I can do, say @discobot display help.

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@discobot roll 1d2

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:game_die: 1

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Well, before we do that, we need to define who is killed at which number. :wink:

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Voting poll is now up.

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Anyway, we should do dice-rolling only as a last-ditch effort, if we can’t decide.

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I was surprised that we got it wrong with @李建澔2, since I took their lack of effort on Day 2 as a sign of resignation for being cornered. They didn’t even both to cast a vote and their seeming confusion about the rules also did not help their cause. Also, I wasn’t expecting such a bold play from the robots to have an immediate false claim as the protector, which seemed even more unlikely given that Leira was a substitute.

We have to kill @Leira today, since they are now confirmed as a Robot.

After another confirmed innocent dies tonight, it will come down to who the last confirmed innocent believes, @yebellz or @ginger2008.

@HHG and @KAOSkonfused, it will come down to one of you to decide. I recommend that you do not commit to your decision right now, since the remaining robot would keep whoever they feel is favoring them.

Actually, @KAOSkonfused, the assaulter, could make the decision unilaterally, by choosing to use their special ability tonight.

I don’t see a way that I can logically prove my innocence, except that I can point to my consistent efforts at trying to win this game for us innocents, by repeatedly offering my thoughts on strategy and logical analysis, whereas the other suspect has shown little interest and activity in this game.

Please don’t just give @ginger2008 a free pass for floating by through this game, while saying almost nothing. They clearly have enough time and access to be quite active on these forums, even maintaining the status of a “regular”, so it seems that their lack of participation is intentional.

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* Update 65536 of 65536 installed. Rebooting *
* (startup chime) *
* MISSION UPDATED: Get out of this wretched town *

Oh no! What have I done!!?? First Leira and now Gia! I only needed the wifi!

This must end today, I will hide no more. I need to go to Town Hall and face everyone, maybe the will listen to reason.

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The gathered town members gasped. How dare this unholy machine show up after what it’s done.

—I beg your attention, please! You need not hunt me down, for here I am! I have not been entirely truthful to you, but I have not been entirely untruthful either. I only lied when I needed to lie in order to preserve myself and my kin; is this not what you humans do as well?

—Robot, murderer!—yelled someone in the audience.

—Ma’am, we do not appreciate such epithet. We are androids. I myself am a cyborg and, in a way, I was once a human like you. My name is 27-O-56. Leira is… was… a friend of mine. I took her identity in trying to prevent a bloodshed but, clearly, I have FAILED.
I admit that I *am* a murderer. Gia did no wrong to me, and yet she is dead by my hands. Even so, you must not kill me today.

The mob was getting ready to tear the robot apart, screw by screw

—If you kill me now, more will die! It is a mathematical truth. I even believe you have one of those fanatical zealots amongst you, ready to die just so that they take another soul with them. But I offer you 3 options:

  1. You kill me, but my associate takes revenge of you at night. Whether your zealot goes out hunting tonight is something you cannot control. Who knows what goes through the mind of a fanatic? You’ll have to trust them to make the right choice, because they will die anyway. If they fail, all of you die.
    Even if, for whatever reason, they choose to accept their death peacefully, you’ll have to hold this trial again, and trust only one person to make that decision.

  2. You hold the trial today, trying to guess the identity of my associate. I shall, by my word, not hold a vote in this trial. You have to trust that your democratic institutions still have any semblance of working. Should you fail, I cannot promise that my associate will not take revenge on you, but my only desire is to leave this place. If you do not fail, I will surrender to you, I will not resist. Nobody else has to die.

  3. Both those options have you balancing in the toss of a coin. There is equal chance that you lose, in which case all of you die, or that you win, in which case only some of you die. But you can also let us go, in which case both of us leave never to be seen again. We will all have our grievances in this stalemate, that is the only peace we can strive for.

The decision is now yours

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I believe voting to kill either @ginger2008 or @yebellz today is an option. In this case, whether or not us innocents win depends on correctly killing @ginger2008. However, there are some logistical and psychological risks to consider.

Currently, I have my vote set on @Leira, but I would need to switch it to @ginger2008, and both @HHG and @KAOSkonfused will have to be unanimous in changing their vote to @ginger2008 as well, in order to prevent the robots from interfering with the vote. Do not trust @Leira not to vote today. Expect that the robots might shift their votes at the last second to mess everything up as much as possible.

Note that the rules say that a tie vote between two players would kill both. So, if one innocent player’s vote were to stay on @Leira, then the robots could kill an innocent along with @ginger2008 (assuming the other two innocents correctly kill @ginger2008), which would lead to a losing situation (the next day would then have 1 innocent player and 1 robot, which @Haze_with_a_Z clarifies as a loss for everyone).

The vote today requires all three innocent players to act both correctly and unanimously, in order to prevent interference by the robots. The easiest way to do that is to have all innocents vote for @Leira as already done by @HHG and @yebellz.

The other risk is that discussion between @HHG and @KAOSkonfused may reveal a disagreement and hint to the robots how they may vote tomorrow. So, even if further debate led to just killing @Leira anyways, that additional information could help the robots to determine which innocent to kill tonight.

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I am calling this scenario my win. Therefore non-winning part is false. Then I would win.

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Alright, let’s shut up and vote.

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—To hold the thesis that one decides better than two, that a dictator should pick up where democracy failed, that one does not mind to be king of the ashes, is the same radical idea that brought so many misguided droids here. Why should you rely on the whims of one when it could have been the consent of the many?

We know @KAOSkonfused is the fanatic among you. He would die tonight, by his own hand or by ours. We cannot afford him to be the last arbiter, for he can immolate himself at night, in which case no droid would survive past tomorrow, even if we manage to escape the ire of the mob; there would be nothing left of this accursed town. Unless you decide to hold your discussions today.

Do you, @KAOSkonfused, trust that @HHG alone will make the right choice? And if your answer is no, it logically follows that you should take matters in your own hands. But then I reverse the question: do you @HHG trust @KAOSkonfused to shoot the right person on his own?

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What we should do:
This night: Kill Leira, and turn from 4:2 to 2:1.
Next night: Kill either yebellz or ginger by lynch mob. This will work because yebellz votes for ginger, ginger votes for yebellz, and KAOSkonfused votes for one. Even if the robot last-minute switches to KAOSkonfused, it will not be enough. Then, have the arbalester (KAOSkonfused) kill the other one. If the arbalester (KAOSkonfused) dies tonight, have them kill either yebellz or ginger, their choice. We all will know the robot the next night, and lynch mob them.
Also, you might not like that I used the term lynch mob.

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The ghost of Vepvots mostly dislikes the use of “lynch mob” as a verb, instead of “lynch”

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I hope this doesn’t mean that you’re actually mad, because I cannot tell.

If the rule is that, on a tied vote, both die, this ensues even more chaos than I anticipated. It becomes a matter of guessing each other strategies blindly. I does not affect the theoretical odds for you guys though, that still stand at 50-50 (where both losing still counts as a loss). It does affect the odds for us a bit though, we need to work that out.

In any case my point stands: if ginger v. yebellz is held today, it’ll be a proper trial, and the result of the match will be known immediately after the vote, everyone will get their saying, which arguably might increase the odds of you guys finding out who’s who. Otherwise, the decision will fall in only one player, and you might not like the result. Still 50-50 for you guys in either case.

* Edited for clarity *

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@HHG, I don’t quite follow your analysis. I think there may be some issues with the details about the situation.

Currently, we are in Day 3.

There are 5 players still in the game:

@Leira, @ginger2008, and @yebellz all know that @ginger2008 is the second Robot, and that @yebellz is innocent. However, @HHG and @KAOSkonfused are unsure.

Assuming that @Leira is killed on Day 3, the remaining Robot will undoubtedly kill either @HHG or @KAOSkonfused on Night 3.

Thus, on Day 4, there will be 3 players remaining in the game:

If we reach Day 4 like this, then the game comes down to whether the remaining confirmed Innocent (either @KAOSkonfused or @HHG) selects to kill either @yebellz or @ginger2008. If @ginger2008 is killed, then all of the Innocent townspeople win. If @yebellz is killed, then the Robots win.

We do not have an “Arbalester” in this game. We have an “Assaulter”, which has a different type of power. The Assaulter may choose to kill someone at night, but that will also cause themselves to die.

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These are just transparent attempts to sow division between the two confirmed innocents @HHG and @KAOSkonfused.

If the three innocent players do not all vote for the same person, then Day 3 can end disastrously, with the robots disrupting the vote.

The Robots may also gain an advantage if the innocents tip their hand about who they prefer for Day 4.

Leira is presenting a false dichotomy in order to persuade the Innocents toward playing a riskier game.

The democratic choice is not just between killing @yebellz or @ginger2008, but also whether to kill Leira today.

In order to kill Leira, both yebellz and ginger2008 (since one of them is the third Innocent) need to commit to placing their votes on Leira, which gives HHG and KAOSkonfused certainty that a vote to kill Leira will succeed, without any disruption (such as a second death due to a tie) possible from Robot interference.

In order to make a decision to kill either yebellz or ginger2008, both of these players need to commit to casting votes against each other (in order to prevent Robot vote disruption).

However, if yebellz and ginger2008 cast votes against each other, that forces KAOSkonfused and HHG to make the decision today and removes the ability to safely kill Leira. Thus, it would rob the two confirmed innocents of a crucial strategic decision (of whether to kill Leira today).

I pledge to follow the unanimous decision of the HHG and KAOSkonfused, whether it is to kill @Leira or @ginger2008. I have my vote currently on Leira since HHG has voted for Leira and KAOSkonfused has not yet voted.

If HHG and KAOSkonfused wish to kill me instead today, then they will have to get ginger2008 to make a similar pledge in order to ensure that the vote is not disrupted, however, it won’t really matter, since that would just cause us Innocents to lose the game anyways.

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