The wave on games decided is maybe linked to players already disqualified and letting their other games time out. I have two such cases in my group.
But it does not explain the wave on disqualified players, since those have already be counted. Maybe players having thought twice about the future at the end of the summer, and who don’t bother any more being involved in a half-century venture. 
5 Likes
You think this will be over in 50 years? You’re quite the optimist. 
4 Likes
I have to! By 2070 I will be 117 years old and I want to hold until the end 
6 Likes
No I think it will be 49 years 364 days 23 hours 59 minutes 59 seconds 999 milliseconds.
wait vaga, are you in this tourney too?
1 Like
I am in it.
1 Like
4500 games finished, congrats, almost half!
3 Likes
Some dan level game right there
1 Like
Always good to learn from the dans. I, a mere kyu, would have thought white might still try an invasion in the lower left area. But that only shows my beginners ignorance I guess. 
5 Likes
Data update:
Total number of participants: 2233
Total number of players in this round: 2233 (100.00%)
-----------------------------------------------------------
The following data is about the current round only.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Disqualified or dropped out: 206 (9.23%)
Still competing: 2027 (90.77%)
Number of groups: 224
Progress: 4569 games decided out of 10038 (45.52%)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Max. games decided by a single player: 9
Min. games decided by a single player: 0
Max. games still open for a single player: 9
Min. games still open for a single player: 0
Max. fraction of games done by a single player: 100.00%
Min. fraction of games done by a single player: 0.00%
Number of players having finished all games: 168 (7.52%)
Number of players having finished no games: 258 (11.55%)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Groups with all games finished: 1 (0.45%)
Groups with no games finished: 0 (0.00%)
5 Likes
If the linear trend continues, most games will be finished by the end of the year …
1 Like
It won’t though. 
1 Like
The important word is “most”.
1 Like
If the trend continue 20% of the player will be disqualified by the end of the year. the half by June 2021 or something like that… 
1 Like
20% is a pretty normal disqualification rate for a correspondence tournament round. In this tournament we have many people playing a tournament for the first time ever, so I expect a somewhat larger rate. I’ll guess: 27%
4 Likes
Exactly. What is “most”? 50%? We’re probably only a couple weeks away from 50%.
2 Likes
How not expecting a few games with few moves when 99% will be finished?
1 Like
Between 95 and 99%, I would guess. 
Of course a single lagging game can make the difference, but I suppose the 2000 (give or take a few) players awaiting for the next round will find diplomatic ways to pass messages like “OK guys no problem we’ll have a couple of beers, don’t feel the pression, take your time”
3 Likes
Looks like we have a gap around 8d!
Also, if you are waiting for half of games completed… we’re almost there!
5 Likes
It would be nice to see how the distribution changes over time as a sort of animated gaussian (or whichever curve it is).
At first glance it seems to be getting more pointed.
3 Likes