Through the Years: Long Correspondence

[Atorrante]

@richyfourtytwo

‘expect’ to be down to one game in three years.

Optimist

[richyfourtytwo]

Note that I did not try to predict how long that last game will take!

[Lys]

no changes so far

[Lys]

• 59 games left, 84 players involved, 25 groups
• 6 completed games
• one disqualified player
• 10 players completed all their games
• 4 groups completed all their games

[Purble]

Ooooh, big week

[Lys]

8 days later…

• 57 games left, 82 players involved, 25 groups
• 2 completed games
• 2 players completed all their games

[Lys]

6 days later: no changes.

[peteg]

Seems like 56 games for the start of 2023

[peteg]

@Lys Would it be easy for you to determine the median number of moves in all completed games so far (preferably non timeouts, and non disqualified players)

[Lys]

@peteg

Would it be easy

Actually, I don’t remember.
I can for sure filter out timeouts and disqualified players.
I already have some information about single games but can’t recall which ones, so I can’t say if I have the number of moves played for each game. I have to dig my database.

When I manage to make next update I should be able to tell you. Probably tomorrow.

[peteg]

Average would be fine too, just trying to get a feel for how long a typical completed game is for this tournament. Of course since we are in the long tail now, may not be representative of much for this round.

[Lys]

Ten days later. First 2023 update: happy new year everybody!

• 54 games left, 78 players involved, 23 groups
• 3 completed games
• 2 disqualified players, one resigned
• 4 players completed all their games, two of them with nine wins
• 2 groups completed all their games

@peteg

how long

I just checked my database: unfortunately I just download main data for each game, so I don’t have details about moves. I can say how many days but I don’t know how many moves. Sorry.

[espoojaram]

Games should also have a timestamp for start and finish in their metadata:

So if you’ve saved the metadata you might have a way to write a script to calculate how long each game lasted
EDIT: Oh, right, by “how long”, they were specifically asking about the number of moves, sorry

[peteg]

@Lys

Ten days later. First 2023 update:

Yes, Happy new year. Thanks for checking about the move count.

[Lys]

12 days later:

• 50 games left, 72 players involved, 22 groups
• 4 completed games
• 1 player resigned
• 6 players completed all their games
• 1 group completed all its games

[mafidufa]

Five and a half months to go from 100 to 50 games. The end of the round is in sight!

[Lys]

@mafidufa

in sight!

But the curve is flattening!

[Atorrante]

Wonder where we are on this curve.
Theoretically the first round could go on forever.

[richyfourtytwo]

@Atorrante

Theoretically the first round could go on forever.

Don’t you worry about that. The Big Freeze will not allow it.

[Lys]

Here is my dashboard on forecasts updated:

As we can see, this curve is blatantly not polynomial. Log doesn’t work either.
The capacitor curve is pretty good though.
According to it, we shoud have 1 last game next summer. Then the last game could last indefinitely.