You know what, I’ll go with that.
As long as we get the werewolves. Being a seer has its burdens.
I like that you keep in character.
But you are not the seer.
Here’s how I view our situation now. It’s a theory, nothing more. I was dead wrong about Eugene after all. But I’ll toss it out there and you can make of it what you will.
It surprises me that werewolves would be able to generate enough rational thought to arrive at any sort of decision. I always thought of them as being too full of blind rage to do anything but kill the first thing that crosses their path, like they’re always about to run into a lamppost or something. But now I understand that they aren’t that way at all. They’re not only physically imposing but smart as hell too, and much liklier to choose stealth and subtlety over something more bombastic.
Ruby Mineshaft and S Alexander have shown admirable restraint so far. They impress me as voices of reason. But have you considered the possibility that they’re a bit too reasonable?
S Alexander went to some trouble to establish that it’s highly unlikely I’m the lunatic. I find his logic flawless on that point, but it occurs to me that this is precisely the sort of information a werewolf would want to spread about an innocent villager in order to remove the most likely impediment to his execution.
Ruby Mineshaft says that if I’m executed today, villagers at the very least can learn whether or not Vsotvep is telling the truth. That’s very true, but there’s more to the story than that. If I’m executed and I’m a werewolf, bravo, you’ve dealt the enemy a crippling blow. But if I’m executed and not a werewolf, then it’s down to two innocents, two werewolves and a lunatic. The wolves won’t touch the lunatic. They’ll target one of the innocents, and by then it won’t even matter whether they get the seer. Then it’s one innocent, one lunatic and two wolves. The werewolves win.
And I know it would unfold that way because whoever the wolves target will not be under protection. It’s no coincidence that both Ruby and S Alexander have dismissed the very idea that the protector should ever reveal himself. There’s truth in that, but it’s a cherrypicking kind of truth that doesn’t put the decision in its full context.
As for Vsotvep, I believe him to be the lunatic, and a desperate one. He has five fellow villagers to deal with, and no more idea who the werewolves are then the innocents have. He wishes to die, but as things stand that’s highly unlikely unless he can inflame public opinion against him by saying provocative things.
Finally, the suggestion that Gia and Vsotvep are both misrepresenting themselves is possible, but to me it just doesn’t pass the smell test. Had the werewolves failed last night, I could understand the seer wanting to remain hidden one more day. But with Eugene dead and an impostor on the scene, the true seer had no choice but to come forward. One of these claimants is telling the truth, and I think it’s Gia.
There you have it then. In my opinion, Ruby Mineshaft and S Alexander are your werewolves. It makes no difference to me which one we eliminate as long as we vote on the same one. Keep me alive one more day villagers, and I’ll do my best to buy the seer another day.
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@KAOSkonfused I’m strangely persuaded fiddlehead is our third. Since I know for sure you are one of us, I will follow your lead: @RubyMineshaft or @S_Alexander? Or insist on @fiddlehead?
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I insist on fiddlehead.
Gia, you can’t talk me out of this. I don’t trust you anymore.
Gia, Kaos, you’re absolutely blowing it, but I understand. I’ve taken my best shot here and I’m done talking. See you in the sweet hereafter I guess.
@KAOSkonfused, I tend to believe @fiddlehead. I would vote for @S_Alexander, but I won’t change my vote if you don’t. It’s up to you. I will retreat in my cabin.
I still haven’t figured out who I should trust but since fiddlehead voted against me, I sure can’t trust him. So I vote against him.
And that’s perfectly reasonable for you under the circumstances.
Is it just me, or is this place becoming deathly quiet? It’s great to kick back and be a werewolf today. Have another pina colada from Trader Vic’s!
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Suspicion has driven us apart. And guilt will grow stronger.
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Probably because everyone made their decisions and voted. And the next day since both of our “seers” will both get one more person check, I think we’ll able to figure out who is who.
If I remember correctly the first day was similar and first day of the “day” was more lively. Perhaps we could change the rules and divide the “day” into two part: nominating and voting.
Also, middle of the work week.
I said I was done talking, but since I’m still part of a team until I’m actually executed, it’s my duty to give this everything I’ve got. So here’s my final appeal.
Kaos, don’t you find it odd that nobody has even tried to refute the argument I laid out earlier today? Can you point to anything in that argument and say no, that’s just not plausible, it could never happen that way? Because if you can’t, then you need to ask yourself, am I being truly objective? Isn’t it possible that my mind seized on some other thing and became overly infatuated with it? Do I need to give my head a shake and reconsider?
You say you don’t trust Gia. And I guess it’s true that her comments haven’t always been consistent, and neither have mine. But I think if you really look into it, you’ll find that this is very common within a group that’s under pressure and trying to make sense of something very complicated. If other people are allowed to stumble somewhat in their reasoning, why shouldn’t Gia be allowed the same?
You still have about five and a half hours to change your mind. It seems likely to me that if you go ahead and do what you’re intending to do, you’ll be the last innocent villager standing on day three. And I can assure you, it will feel like a hollow victory when you’re facing two ravenous werewolves plus a lunatic.
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The main reason I did not add more, is that I have made my case. Anything fiddlehead brings to the table is nonsense, since I have confirmation that fiddlehead is a werewolf.
The problem with this game is that, no we can’t. Except if you have a role that gives you information, you’ll have to rely on the information that others give you.
With fiddlehead gone, there will be only one remaining werewolf. Then tomorrow we will face one werewolf and one lunatic, of which Gia must be either. If I am not killed tonight, then I can find out if Gia is a werewolf or a lunatic, and in the first case this means victory for the villagers. In the second case it will be two (or three if the werewolves attack a protected villager tonight) villagers against one werewolf and we can ignore the lunatic.
That’s how I see the situation right now: it’s a win situation either way.
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Again, I fully agree with Vsotvep.
Of course we can’t know anything with a 100% certainty, but that’s the game.
No, we can’t know anything with absolute certainty. But, all things being equal, why do you continue to side with the one who makes his case so arrogantly? Did you not consider my comments regarding the admission of doubt, the allowance for other people’s doubt? Does this feel right to you fundamentally? Did this point not resonate with you at all?
There is no doubt for me, because I’m the seer, I just state what I know.
I acknowledge that others are allowed to doubt me, but in doing so, they will make a mistake (because I know).
Ugh, I’m the seer. Do whatever Kaos, but I’m the seer.
Looks like this is to be my final post:
Kaos, I find your tone deafness in this matter most disturbing. For God’s sake man, take off your brainiac headgear and allow your gut some say in this!
As for you werewolves,be as humane as you can. For once in your wretched lives try to show a bit of class.
I want to point out that fiddlehead said in one of the posts that I’m being a bit too reasonable and that could mean I’m a werewolf. And then proceeded to be as reasonable as possible.
I also want to point out that Kaos was one of the first who voted against you. Kaos is exactly going with his gut. And we’re following. Even Gia though Gia claims Vsotvep is lying.
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