Werewolf Game 2 - The Tragedic Story of Kosumi Castle

[You_Know_Me]

I feel that we may have split too many hairs, now that we have come out and isolated one another. Here are some facts, not hypotheticals:

1. We reveal no roles, execute no one: one person will likely die by the hand of the vampires. Those with knowledge will remain hidden from the vampires, possibly thwarting their future plans.
2. We in fact try to reveal roles, execute one of those we have narrowed through discussion, though quite temperamental that we must wade through the vampires lies: two may die, one executed, one by the hand of the vampires.

On the next day is where our crux will be. Either we will go with choice #1, and will be asking the same questions as today, to reveal the roles and work through our process of elimination (now with 6 instead of 7). Or choice #2, hopefully slightly closer to easily picking a vampire from the crowd, now with much more information as to who may be innocents and have roles, and but 5 to choose from instead of 6, as with choice #2.

So… to stay an execution for one more night… or to try to call all to light, struggle through the web, and make a decision.

[Assai]

This game made me want to refresh my school knowledge from the statistics. I have to admit my first calculation was wrong:

@Assai

1. has a probability of 1/6.
2. has a probability of 5/7 (7 other players than the night watch, 5 other innocents).

Since the probabilities of the two cases stated by yebellz

@yebellz

1. bugcat was the nightwatch.
2. The nightwatch does not want to reveal whatever information they learned.

have to add to 100%, I think the second case had a probability of 5/6 at that moment. I messed up the different statements “The nightwatch does not want to reveal whatever information they lerned.” and the probability I calculated “The nightwatch got to know another innocent”.

Back to our current problem (I will rewrite what Haze said so it hopefully gets clearer and it gets easier to see if there are missing cases):
We now have two options. To kill or not to kill. This leads to the following cases:

1. Noone gets killed. The probability to kill a vampire is 0% for this case on the short term. At the moment, most players voted for “No one” on yebellz poll.
2. A vampire gets killed by us or the arbalestier. If we kill a random person, the probability for this is 2/7+(1/7)*(2/6)=12/42+2/42=14/42=33.3%
3. The guardian gets killed by us or the arbalestier. Since they can’t protect anybody during the day, they will be dead. The probability for this is 1/7+(1/7)*(1/6)=6/42+1/42=7/42=16.6%
4. An innocent without a special role gets killed by us or the arbalestier. The probability for this is 3/7+(1/7)*(3/6)=18/42+3/42=21/42=52.4%.
5. The arbalestier gets killed. The probability for this is 1/7=14.3% (This is also the probability for the death of a second person today, if we decide to kill).

Lets check this calculation: 14/42+7/42+21/42+1/7=1+1/7. That is correct, since the probability for a second person to die equals the probability of us killing the arbalestier.

Now let’s let the night fall. We have to differentiate whether a person was killed by us or the arbalestier, because it changes the chance of a person to be killed by the vampires. (I will now use V for vampire, G for guardian, A for Arbalestier and N for a normal innocent without special role).

1. Noone was killed by us. There are 2 V, 1 G, 1A, 3N. The vampires choose to target a different person than last night and the Guardian can protect that person. (Sounds very unlikely because the vampires know they will be successful if they target the same person again) But to calculate, I’ll assume the vampires act like this (they choose randomly). The probability everyone is still alive after the night in this case is 3/4*1/4=3/16=18.75%.
2. Noone was killed by us. The vampires choose to target a different person (unlikely) but the Guardian is not lucky. The probability for this is (3/4)(3/4)=9/16=56.25%.
   2.1 The vampires kill G. Probability: (9/16)(1/5)=9/80=11.25%.
   2.2 The vampires kill N. Probability: (9/16)(3/5)=27/80=33.75%.
   2.3 The vampires kill A. Probability: (9/16)(1/5)=9/80=11.25%.
   2.3.1 A kills V. Probability: (9/80)(2/6)=3/80=3.75%.
   2.3.2 A kills G. Probability: (9/80)(1/6)=3/160=1.875%.
   2.3.3 A kills N. Probability: (9/80)*(3/6)=9/160=5.625%.
3. Noone was killed by us. The vampires choose to target the same person so the Guardian can’t protect. The probability for this (if they choose randomly) is 1/4=25%. (Check: 18.75%+56.25%+25%=100%)
   3.1 V kill G. Probability: (1/4)(1/5)=1/20=5%.
   3.2 V kill N. Probability: (1/4)(3/5)=3/20=15%.
   3.3 V kill A. Probability: (1/4)(1/5)=1/20=5%.
   3.3.1 A kills V. Probability: (1/20)(2/6)=1/60=1.67%.
   3.3.2 A kills G. Probability: (1/20)(1/6)=1/120=0.83%.
   3.3.3 A kills N. Probability: (1/20)(3/6)=1/40=2.5%.
4. Noone was killed by us. The vampires do not choose randomly and they target the same person so the Guardian can’t protect. This means the probabilities of case 1 and case 2 are assumed as 0 and all probabilities of case 3 are quadrupled. (I think I don’t need to write that down for every case…)
5. We killed a vampire. (You remember from above: 2/7.) There are 1V, 1G, 1A, 3N. I will omit all the cases where the vampire does not target the same person. (You can see how many that are!) That means I assume the remaining vampire attacks the same person and the guardian can’t protect that person.
   5.1 V kills G. Probability: (2/7)(1/5)=2/35=5.71%.
   5.2 V kills N. Probability: (2/7)(3/5)=6/35=17.14%.
   5.3 V kills A. Probability: (2/7)(1/5)=2/35=5.71%.
   5.3.1 A kills V (We win!). Probability: (2/35)(1/5)=2/175=1.14%.
   5.3.2 A kills G. Probability: (2/35)(1/5)=2/175=1.14%.
   5.3.3 A kills N. Probability: (2/35)(3/5)=6/175=3.43%.
6. We killed the guardian so noone is protected. (From above: 1/7.) There are 2V, 1A, 3N.
   6.1 V kill N. (1/7)(3/4)=3/28=10.71%.
   6.2 V kill A. (1/7)(1/4)=1/28=3.57%.
   6.2.1 A kills V. (1/28)(2/5)=2/140=1.42%.
   6.2.2 A kills N. (1/28)(3/5)=3/140=2.14%.

The other cases also differ in that we may kill the person who was protected last night or not (because the Guardian can choose out of all innocents if we kill his protege).

7. We killed an innocent. I’ll assume the protege still lives and that the vampires will target that same person again.
8. We killed an innocent, who was the protege.
9. We killed the arbalestier, which leads to many related cases

Sorry, I just don’t have enough time to finish writing this. Maybe someone else can try to work out the remaining probabilities?

[Vsotvep]

“It’s so hard for me not to join their discussion about percentages…” sighed the joker in afterlife…

[yebellz]

Since everyone has expressed desire for the nightwatch to speak up, and it would be logical for them to do so, I think it’s almost certain that bugcat was the nightwatch on the first night, and hence unfortunately for us, this special power died with him.

With the nightwatch gone, we don’t have much to gain from waiting to kill, since we can’t wait in hope of information that won’t come. I think we must start voting to kill, in hope of stopping a vampire. As we continue, how we vote will provide vital clues as to who might be a vampire. Unfortunately, we don’t have many possible rounds left to work with, but I’m saying this now in case I’m not here tomorrow:
Study the voting patterns carefully for clues.

Also, I think that we should base our votes on two factors:

1. Who we think might be a vampire, based on our own suspicions, and
2. Who we think might be less likely to figure out who the vampires are.

Remember, we are not just doing this for our own personal survival, but rather for the survival of the humans as a whole. All of us humans will be victorious once we eliminate the scourge of the vampires, even though many of us will have to endure the greatest personal sacrifice.

My personal hunch for who might be a vampire is @You_Know_Me since they seemed a bit too quick to show arbitrary suspicions in the first day, and also I have not always agreed with their strategic reasoning.

Along the lines of strategy reasoning, I also disagree with @fiddlehead and @Assai’s position of not wanting the nightwatch to speak out on the second day. I feel that only a vampire could argue for such a position, since I don’t believe it would have been to our advantage to have a living nightwatch remain silent.

@KAOSkonfused has remained very quiet throughout this ordeal, and has offered very little in terms of strategic reasoning and sharing their thoughts toward how to find the vampires.

I think it is vital that every innocent player share as much to the best of their ability their thoughts on how to flush out the vampires and who they think they might be. This is vital not only for us all working toward the best cohesive strategy, but also for potentially flushing out vampires who might make illogical or flawed arguments, when they attempt to manipulate the public discourse into their favor.

I recommend that everyone considers not only who they think might be a vampire, but also who they think is contributing least to the efforts of finding the vampires. Those that remain too silent do not help our cause, and anyways might be quiet out of a guilty conscience.

[You_Know_Me]

These are my suspicions:

@Assai & @Haze_with_a_Z voted to reveal the guardian only if they had protected themselves last night… which would only reveal them to the vampire and also reveal that they are unprotected… @Assai is also a priest and should have smelled a vampire’s rotting flesh a mile away.

But @Haze_with_a_Z voted to execute @Assai, but not vice versa, which leads my gut to rumble. I suspect them the most.

Though, it also unsettling that @Assai and @fiddlehead did vote for the nightwatch to stay silent, which would confuse their death.

I have suspected @yebellz the least. From that, @Gia and @KAOSkonfused lay somewhere in the middle.

@yebellz would prefer the guardian silent, why? If we are going to take the step to execute, why not learn slightly more to focus the scope?

[yebellz]

@You_Know_Me

@yebellz would prefer the guardian silent, why? If we are going to take the step to execute, why not learn slightly more to focus the scope?

Actually, I’m not 100% against it, and would have voted unsure if that had been an option. I do think it is a risky move to reveal, and I’m not sure about the risk vs reward. It’s possible that the guardian protected their self last night, which means that a reveal would only clear one player, and also doom the guardian. It’s also possible that the guardian protected themselves on the first night (which is a common strategy) and hence got lucky protecting the correct innocent on the second night. If that’s the case, then maybe clearing two people as innocent could be worthwhile.

I think it was a bad idea (from the human player perspective) for @Assai to have put up a poll about guardian. Having player express their opinions is such a specific matter might help the vampires in deducing who might be the guardian. Note that the vampires already know who they targeted and failed to kill last night, so that might be an additional advantage for them.

Given that the poll is out there, it may well be better for the guardian to reveal today, since the poll responses might have already helped the vampires figure it out.

I am not the guardian.

[You_Know_Me]

My heart burns. Acid bubbles up from my stomach. Is it too much garlic? Believe me when I tell you that I am in fact the guardian, restless at night, frantic to get on with our fate. Just last night I protected our most pedantic chamberlain, @yebellz.

They cannot kill us both at once, @yebellz! Now we must decide! We have forced their cards as they have forced ours.

[yebellz]

Ok, big revelation. @You_Know_Me is either telling the truth or must be a vampire pretending to be the guardian. Please everyone confirm that you saw this message before the vote tomorrow. If someone else is the real guardian, please speak up. If no one does, then we should believe @You_Know_Me

Did you see this?

• yes

[Haze_with_a_Z]

While this is true, I think the accurate information in it is who was protected. We are going to have to assume this is the case unless someone else brings in other information. In that case, we will need to distinguish which is false.
We also haven’t heard from a few people in a while and I feel it would be valuable to hear their opinions before I vote.
This is mainly directed to @Gia and @KAOSkonfused, although I would like to hear some more information from @fiddlehead. Also, @Assai, I would like to hear your opinion on what we should do today, besides just the calculations and listing the options.
I still believe we should try and vote for someone today, so I will, even if others disagree and don’t want to vote.

[Gia]

As I said before, I have no special role as the nightwatch or protector, and I named these two because I’m the Arbalastier.

If YNM and Y are also innocent, we can vote one of the remaining to kill, choose another to protect and leave me unprotected tonight to take the other one with me.

[KAOSkonfused]

Sorry for being quiet, but I’m not the right person to discuss percentages with. I like having some real evidence - this supernatural case is way too hard for me to solve.

I can only assure you, I’m neither the nightwatch, nor the guardian, and I don’t know what to believe anymore.
@You_Know_Me was, in my eyes, clearly the most suspicious so far. Can he really be the guardian?
And I want to add that @yebellz’ arguments all make perfect sense to me.

[Sorry for writing so little. I’ve been much busier than usual IRL. Also, I’m more cautious now, as I failed so badly last time, and I don’t want to let the villagers/courtiers down again.]

[Assai]

At the moment 6/7 of all players have seen the revelation. That makes it very probable we can believe @You_Know_Me. Which also tells us @yebellz is innocent.

Sorry, I have to tell you @yebellz is wrong with

@yebellz

only a vampire could argue for such a position

but you won’t know if you don’t try. Go on and execute me. God will take in my soul.

When you found out I’m innocent I hope you will remember this: I’m still suspecting Gia to be a vampire. As I suspected, she had something to hide, but I don’t believe her she is the Arbalestier!

[Assai]

I have to add, I don’t know who the other vampire is. I suspected @You_Know_Me all the time but now we know he is innocent… I don’t know.

[yebellz]

@Assai

but I don’t believe her she is the Arbalestier!

Gia has claimed to be the arb. Does anyone want to contradict her?

• I am the arb
• I am not the arb

[yebellz]

If no one contradicts @You_Know_Me or @Gia , then the vampires must lie among @fiddlehead, @Assai, @KAOSkonfused, or @Haze_with_a_Z

[Gia]

@yebellz

@fiddlehead, @Assai, @KAOSkonfused, or @Haze_with_a_Z

Chocolate cookies are ready, gather up.

I vote we kill @Haze_with_a_Z, we protect @KAOSkonfused and if I’m killed I take @Assai with me.
If I’m killed today, I’m taking @Haze_with_a_Z with me. It was my first instinct, him and @Assai, and I’m sticking to it.
If anyone thinks I’ll be taking an innocent with me, please convince me. I will wait until the last minute.

Also the secret recipe to everything is “cook for the person you feed and they’ll know the difference”.

[yebellz]

Why do you suggest we protect @KAOSkonfused? Did you mean to say someone else?

[Gia]

I’d prefer you, but you were protected last night.

Can the protector protect themselves tonight again?

[fiddlehead]

I’ll address one more time the perception that I endangered our group through my reluctance to call out the nightwatch yesterday.

Again, at the time it was still six innocents and two vampires. The odds still favoured us even if we did nothing that day. And that’s without even factoring in the influence of the guardian, the arbalestier or the presumed nightwatch. If I’m a vampire I’m not liking those odds. Did I make the right decison? I don’t know, but I do stand by it.

As for You Know Me’s revelation, consider that on day three alone, he has targeted three different players for execution, then recommended that we execute nobody, and now, at the eleventh hour, he claims to be the guardian. I’m sorry, but for me that’s at least one flip-flop too many. My earlier opinion of You Know Me still stands.

As for the various polls, as far as I’m concerned the only relevant one concerns which player we execute. I consider everything else questionable at best.

[yebellz]

Ok, but why do you want to protect @KAOSkonfused? Why do you believe they are innocent?