I am going to just put some information out there. Seven people remain. Two are the vampires, one is the guardian, one is the shooter person that I forget the name of, and three are innocents with no job. If two people besides the vampires remain, I believe the voting becomes a stalemate, and, well I don’t actually know what would happen, but most likely, if we let it get down to four people including both vampires, we will lose. On the other hand, if we can kill one of the vampires, we have until two people are left before we are screwed. We are going to have to vote one of the vampires off either this time or next time, unless someone gets saved by the guardian again. If we wait any longer then that, we may not be able to kill the vampires because they can out-vote us and kill us at night. If the Nightwatch is someone who is alive, I believe it would be beneficial for us to have this information public, but the Guardian should not reveal their information, only because this would be putting the guardian in a big hole with no way out. The Nightwatch, on the other hand, could help us rule out up to 4 people, which would give us a 1 in 3 chance of getting the vampire. If we got this, the guardian could share their information, if needed - if the guardian or the person they protected was in that three, they could share, and this would make it so we all knew who the two vampires were. The way they would prove that this information was true, is making the Nightwatch tell the exact role of the person that they investigated. The person could then confirm that this is true. It has a few flaws, and it won’t work if Bugcat was the Nightwatch, but this route could end up favorable to us.
I do agree that I am confused in this though. Probably the most confused, partly because I just assume things instead of checking my facts, and everyone else pays attention to the rules and knows all of this stuff.
Even now I want to resist the urge to execute someone today. But my hopes of a nightwatcher coming forward are quickly fading, and we know that whoever was protected last night will surely die tonight. So it seems we’ve arrived at that dreaded tipping point. As for whom we should execute, I’m withholding my vote until all the arguments are in. But I do have some thoughts on this.
You’ll recall that You Know Me came out in favour of execution on day one, the only person to have done so. This could easily be explained as first day jitters, but it also suggests a vampire who’s looking to gain an early advantage and perhaps played that card too soon. But wouldn’t his partner have urged the same thing? Not necessarily, because it’s very risky at that stage for two people to adopt that same stance when nobody else wants it. It puts too many eggs in one basket.
You Know Me then expressed an overwhelming sense of dread, as if there was some special reason for the vampires to target him first. And this too can be seen as a possible vampire tactic, trying to deflect attention from his earlier aggression by playing the condemned man.
Finally, late in day two he insinuates that he might have been the nightwatcher from that first night, possibly with the idea of drawing protection from the guardian while he and his partner pursue an unprotected target.
This is all speculation, of course, but I think you have to admit that these bad impressions begin to stack up. And I find that day one behaviour particularly troubling.
If we must grasp at straws, let’s make sure we’ve sorted them thoroughly then compare. For me, You Know Me is the most conspicuous straw we have.
The night stretches our nerves thin and we wake to nervous anticipation… but alas, warms sounds from the kitchen, gentle stirring of comrades… the night passed in silence? How fortunate…
Why the nightwatch would not speak out at this point is bewildering to me. Considering what the guardian may know at this point, that with the nightwatches information, a lot could be hashed out very quickly. But perhaps there are reasons between the lines that we cannot see? I’d like to hear from the nightwatch before the guardian. If the nightwatch refuses to come out, so will the guardian… but if the nightwatch comes out I think maybe the guardian should, too.
Otherwise all I can claim is speculation, as all of us, biting blindly at the dirt like worms.
Finally I get to answer a misconception. It wasn’t me this time.
We are not the courtiers, and if a Nightwatch dies in action then the courtiers “vote” to not have one because they believe it is too dangerous. Therefore, if bugcat was the nightwatch the first night, we will never have another nightwatch.
I would assume that this is the case, then. That the nightwatch died the first night. Our options then? Make the guardian’s information public? This may reveal two innocents… But how do we decide on an execution from the other five? Either way, is it logical that the intruders will attack the same person, knowing the guardian cannot protect them twice? Again I’ll bend with the group, but we must see through the interlopers, and this will prove difficult.
To be clear I voted to kill the already dead jester… to insure he stayed dead. Otherwise all my hypotheticals have been just that: hypothetical. I have voted clearly every round based on the responses of the group.
Good Morning. Praised be God the Lord who protected us with the Guardian.
Since only KAOSkonfused didn’t say anything today and I haven’t been on Nights Watch tonight I can tell most likely bugcat was the Nights Watch.
Two people having been on Nights Watch can prove none to four of the living people innocent (makes 4 cases because there is no case in which we know of only one living innocent).
If the Nights Watch still lives they probably didn’t find a vampire (or they would have told), so they chose out of the other innocents. (In the first night: 5 other innocents than the nights watch, 2nd night: 4 other innocents)
Case 0: bugcat was the Nights Watch.
The probability of this is 1/6=16.6%
Case 2: The Nights Watches now know each other’s role or the first Nights Watch chose bugcat and the second now knows the others role. The probability of this is (5/6)(1/5)(5/6)(1/4)+(5/6)(1/5)(5/6)(1/4)=10/144=6.9%
Case 3: One Knights Watch knows the other and the other Nights Watch knows another innocent or both know the same innocent or the first one knows bugcat and the second one knows another innocent.
Probability:
(5/6)(1/5)(5/6)(3/4)+(5/6)(4/5)(5/6)(1/4)+(5/6)(4/5)(5/6)(1/4)+(5/6)(1/5)(5/6)(3/4)=(15/144)+(20/144)+(20/144)+(15/144)=70/144=48.6%
Case 4: Both Nights Watches know different innocents.
The probability is (5/6)(4/5)(5/6)*(2/4)=40/144=27.8%
The probability of knowing at least 3 of the living 5 innocents would be 76.4% if both nights watches tell what they know.
So if noone says they have been the nights watch, we could be quite shure of bugcat having been the first (16.6%>6.9%). On the other hand you all seem to prefer to talk and not calculate 
This is ridiculous. When the last day ended, you had less messages in this thread than me. So maybe you have something to hide and even tell us you would act like you do now if you do hide something?
I must admit, I’ve had similar thoughts from day one. So if I would have to vote against one of us, then it’s You Know Me.
The treasurer quaffs his coffee and attends to his itinerary while the accusations begin to form.
He raises his hand slowly and claims, again, “I was not the nightwatch, nor have I ever been. If we keep our intentions close to our cuffs it may only hurt us all in the end… I will wait just a little further before I declare my assumptions.”
Also, no nightwatch here.
I am convinced by now that bugcat must have been on nightwatch when he was killed.
Since I’ve accused You Know Me, I think it’s only fair to explain why I’m accusing nobody else, or why I at least find them less suspicious.
Gia was irritated when Bugcat accused her on day one, but that was a very understandable reaction; and, as we now know, Bugcat was only joking. Gia suspects Hazy and Assai but isn’t necessarily sold on either and has said so.
I think Yebellz has been pretty consistent during this ordeal. I find nothing inflammatory in anything he’s said, and I’d be surprised if he turned out to be a vampire.
Looking at Hazy, Assai and Kaos, I find them more or less interchangeable. It’s true that we haven’t heard much from those first two, and I guess there’s a natural tendency to assume there’s something sinister in this. But I find nothing unreasonable or remotely accusatory in anything they’ve said before today. I think we would do better to focus on what people actually say, as opposed to what they may or may not say if they were here more often.
Hazy says that his inconsistency is largely due to his confusion about rules. I have some sympathy for that, though I can also understand how some would find it suspicious.
As for myself, I suppose the strongest charge that could be brought against me is that yesterday I hesitated to support calling out the nightwatch. Fair enough. But I have to tell you, I would take the same position today if I still believed any nightwatchers were still out there, and if not for the fact that we’re sure to lose another player tonight.
The treasurer lifts his head again as the lord of the house makes his claims and points with boney fingers, but still our treasurer focuses on his own hurried scribblings, runs his hands through his thinning hair, and looks like a mad man as he feverishly slaps his abacus around, causing a ruckus.
You wonder if he even knows how to use that thing.
Correction time. Please note that when I said we hadn’t heard much from Hazy and Assai I meant to say Kaos and Assai. I could just edit it, but then maybe nobody rereads it.
Ok, you say I were too silent. Let’s list what we know:
- bugcat was on Nightwatch
- Nothing else. We could now throw a dice to determine who is a Vampire and who is not.
- Instead of throwing a dice we can guess who has a special role by looking how much information their messages contain. I think, those who write much but say nothing are more likely to have a special role. My messages always contain information, some messages of other people are only roleplay without information regarding the game (which makes it more entertaining but doesn’t help to find the vampires).
- A special role can be a vampire, the Guardian or the Arbalestier. There is no way to find out if a player tries to hide being a Vampire or one of the other special roles.
- If I were the Guardian, I would have protected myself in the second night, because in the first night the Vampires can kill the Guardian only by chance, in the second Night they can make a more educated guess. It could be pure luck of the vampires as well. If I were a vampire, I’d attack the same person again, so if the Guardian actually protected themselves, I say they should say so now, so we have a better chance of killing a Vampire this evening…
The vampires will kill a person tonight. We should do this today, too. And God may help us to kill a vampire!
Which brings me to my question: Do you think the Guardian should speak up today?
- Yes
- No
- Only if the Guardian protected themselves last night
0 voters
Alas, the end is nigh, and I must wonder, is it that I have tread so slowly over such a short distance or that I raced to the finish over a very long one. What does it matter now? Lines are being drawn. Shadows cast. At first I tried to widen my gaze, but now… it seems to only narrow…
Possibly there is evidence to be found is in the revelations of the guardian. Out of seven one will reveal themselves as the guardian and possibly who they had saved, but if our chaplains logic is correct, only one innocent is revealed, that of the guardian… If the guardian had in fact guarded all night against themselves… the vampires will no doubt strike them again (as they would if he revealed or not), so what, pray tell, would this prove? It leads me to further suspect our master chaplain, who I must admit, I had my suspicions about in the get go. Why could a priest not sniff out a vampire among our castle?
But, let us continue that the guardian’s revelation is our main evidentiary train of thought. Our other option may be that the guardian reveals themselves but also ousts the innocent they saved. The vampires undoubtedly know whom they attacked last night, it is no mystery to them, only to the innocents. If the guardian were to out themselves, plus the guarded/saved one from the previous night, this would again put the guardian almost out of play (as it would be my logic that the vampires would strike the same foe again, knowing they cannot now be rescued twice in a row), but now we only choose from five to execute. So with this logic, maybe it’s best for the guardian to speak their mind, since that in which they guarded is doomed for death on the next night.
Do these assumptions make anyone… perhaps… worry of their remarks? Or would anyone else speak out their assertions, before we all vote in the secret ballot room?
I wonder now, thinking this all out loud, if the guardian did reveal, what’s to stop the other role from revealing as well? Leaving us to possibly even pick from just four to execute… The albalestier will loose little from stepping out but only to further risk those who they are not.
I think that we need to kill someone today. I don’t want to kill anyone, and I would rather the castle be just there with everyone alive. We need to come together to decide this as a community, rather than just one or two people deciding for us. If we vote for no one, we will most likely only have 6 left at the end of the night. Then we will have one more day that we can possibly vote before it becomes only 4 people remaining. When it hits 4, if the vampires are still left, they can both vote for one person risk free(well, not completely, but no one will die that night, and then the night phase will come, they will most likely kill one more person, and then with 3 people left, they can kill the last person during the day. There is also no way for the guardian or the albalestier to prove who they are. The albalestier has no info we can test, and the vampires and the guardian both know who that person that was saved. We have very little information, but we are going to have to choose someone today, or we basically lose our turn.
If I did my math correctly we have a 68.5 percent change of getting a vampire this way(2/7+2/5) compared to if we wait two rounds we have a 40 percent chance(2/5) or one round we have a 33.3 percent chance(2/6=1/3). The only other thing we have to consider is the albalestier. The explained way would add a chance the first round, but if it missed, unless someone is saved again, we would lose(1/7*2/6=1/21). This has a 1 in 21 chance of killing a vampire. It also has a 2 in 21 chance of the albalestier killing an innocent after the vote which would cause the guardian to have to protect someone the next round or it is over. With this strategy there is also a chance that the albalestier is killed during the night(1/4 - 1 out of either 0(if he was protected last night), 5(if the person protected last night still lives), or 6(if said person dies). I am not the greatest at math, so I am doing my best, but I can’t come up with all of these super complicated odds. If you want those, then ask @Assai. He seems pretty knowledgable. ). If he is killed in the night, he is going to have to choose someone that he thinks is the vampire. The odds of him choosing correctly are 2 in 5 or 40%. The odds of him choosing an innocent is 3 in 5 or 60%. To make the stats slightly easier for me to calculate, I am going to just assume that the number from the last part is 1/4. If it is, there is a 1 in 10 chance of him getting killed and him choosing a vampire and a 3 in 20 chance of him bringing an innocent down with him. Note: we can’t take the vampires’ thoughts into action because we don’t know them, so I am going to just assume that these will be either slightly off or way off depending on the vampires’ thought process. I hope that some of these stats can give you a slight background on this. If desired, I could try and go farther through this next time.
Also relating to what @You_Know_Me said,
I would try and put this into consideration, but unlike Vsotvep, I am unable to study grad level math textbooks in my free time, because I don’t know all of the math leading up to it. These may be some of the best stats that I can give, although I am sure some can give better. I wasn’t able to subtract or add any percent to my 68.5 after looking at the albalestier, because I don’t really know how. It would also probably take me significantly longer to figure out than if we asked someone else on here to do it. I tried my best to be helpful, but somethings I can’t take into account, nor can I calculate said things.
I look at my reply, and suddenly I realize I put too much text down. 
Puzzled, the treasurer scratches his head. He whispers, “I think we may be going in circles, what with all these percentages…”
I see now there may be too many voices. We are scared, confused, have suspicions but when they are declared cast little but doubt and a fog of hypotheticals. Perhaps it is best we execute no one, and let the vampires dictate our fate for one last eve… I must confess… at this point I have strong suspicions as to who our interlopers are, as I am sure we all do. I hope too many ballots have not already been cast or too many minds swayed… for I hope it is not too late for a change of tides, that we may overcome these troubles…
Yet… What an impending doom… to wonder if it was I… or you… someone that was saved but now, to the vampires, are a marked prey. I wonder if they are nervous, slowly counting down until they get to strike again, or are they filled with a renewed vigor? That they may indeed finally see their own end.
May I ask puzzled treasurer @You_Know_Me, why were you at first really wanting kill and thinking we should kill, and now you are saying that we shouldn’t kill and that it won’t be good to kill? I am confused about your sudden change of pace. I have not yet voted, but I think I will have to vote for someone this time and I hope that others share this opinion so we can decide together. This opinion could get me killed, but I think that we have a better chance of winning this battle if we kill today. If others want to influence me, then they can influence me all they want, but I will still vote for someone today. The longer we put this off, the harder it will be.