Werewolf Game 4: Madness of the Martian Mimics

No, I don’t think we can force a win.

It’s 1:6 (mimics:innocents) at the moment, right?
HHG and Ginger are confirmed innocents.

Then there is Ruby, and there are four others (I am quite sure Samraku and Assai are innocent, but can’t be 100% sure, so…).

We will kill one of these four today. Let’s assume we’ll kill an innocent person today, then what will happen next?

Possible endings:

  1. Ruby is dead tomorrow morning. We will then know for sure Ruby was the detective. It will be 1:4. Let’s assume we’ll have bad luck and lynch an innocent again - then the mimic will kill one of the confirmed innocents and we’ll have 1:2 the next day, consisting of one confirmed innocent and 2 others, so the ending will depend on who the confirmed innocent will believe.

  2. Ruby is alive tomorrow morning. This would not necessarily mean that he is the mimic, but might be a ruse to confuse us. Instead, one of the confirmed innocents is dead. It’ll be 1:4, but with only one confirmed innocent. (Unless Ruby can confirm another innocent, then this information is correct, no matter if Ruby is a mimic or not.)
    2a) We kill Ruby and he is the mimic, the game is over.
    2b) We kill Ruby and he turns out to be innocent - then we can use the information he gave us that day, and we will have another confirmed innocent (or the real mimic!). But again, one confirmed innocent will die that night through the mimic and we’ll be left with only one confirmed innocent and 1:2 - same situation, (as long as Ruby didn’t reveal the mimic) it all depends on whom the remaining confirmed innocent will believe more.
    2c) We don’t kill Ruby, so we won’t know if he is a mimic or not.
    Ok, now it get’s too complicated.

@HHG @ginger2008 , now it’s really important to hear your opinions on the remaining suspects…