Werewolf Game 4: Madness of the Martian Mimics

[Starline]

I have reviewed my options. If the humans were to kill me, I would be forced to die a slow, painful death from dust inhalation. I do not want that. It is worth giving up the last 30 minutes for which I am supposed to live. I have accomplished enough.
Also no one in my family wished me a happy seventh birthday.

2088-01-29, Martian Day 4, 19:37
I walk into the room where @RubyMineshaft is standing. I place a data drive next to him. He looks puzzled at first, then plugs the data drive into his system.
I silently walk out of the room, and head to the balcony facing south, towards the place I knew all too well, the place I called home.
I take a look back at the base, then stare into the sky.
“Aní a/-negâtà entŕa Martiá. A/zetra, íkrà/enámoràctra, vié/atakí entŕa neke-a/aTríctŕa!”
I open a flap in my clothing, revealing a small red button. I take one finger, and hesitate before pushing it. There was a bright flash, and I screamed. It felt like I was on fire. They did not tell me it would feel like this. 8 seconds later, I had completely burned away, and all that was left of me was a few specks of dust, and my 3 indestructible ninja stars.

[Vsotvep]

Whelp, that seems to have done my job, I guess.

---

Let’s start the night, which will last until I have received word from all players with a special role, since there is no discussion left for the last single mimic. (I’ll wait until at least every player has been online once, so that can’t be used to find out special roles)

[Vsotvep]

2088 Jan 30, 7:00

It was another bleak morning at Hellas base, where this time @Cool_Person had gone missing. Half of the original crew of 12 had perished, and even though two mimics had been defeated, the spirits were low in the group of astronauts.

---

The day phase starts now, until 2020-06-22T16:00:00Z. I’ve put a link to this post in the top message of this thread, so the poll can be found easily.

Who should be killed today?

• Samraku
• ginger2008
• KAOSkonfused
• HHG
• Assai
• yebellz
• RubyMineshaft
• nobody

[Samraku]

Translations

@Samraku

↔:zombie:

Kill Starline. Cool person is a mimic because of the reasoning that Cool and Sports were consistently voting against eachother with minimal justificatiton, which implies that one of them knows the other is on the other team.

@Samraku

~8 hours of work time (I mistook the kanji for 時), followed by ~2 hours of talk time.

(I was messaging during breaks and trying to say I’d say more later)

@Samraku

↔:pirate_flag:

~4 hours of work time, followed by 2 hours of talk time. Cool is an alien.

(I was hoping that modifying only one aspect of the previously confusing message would be enough of a hint that people would figure it out. I didn’t actually realize it was a customs emoji until it was mentioned in this thread, because it just looked like a briefcase or laptop to me.)

@Samraku

~1 hour of work time (really a high estimate of how long it would take me to get home), followed by ~2 hours of talk time.

@Samraku

I think everyone understood this one.

@Samraku

Kill starline.

@Samraku

Ehh… I’d put the odds at 2:1 that you’re an astronaut.

(Now that Cool Person has been vindicated, @ginger2008 is now my main suspect)

@Samraku

No. Cool chick is an alien. Cool chick voted to kill Sports.

@Samraku

Yes.

@Samraku

If Cool Person is a astronaut/bodyguard, Cool chick will die, which implies that My reasoning didn’t matter and My vote will be to Ginger. Either way, it implies that the astronauts will win.

(I was trying to communicate that he shouldn’t really care if I thought he was an alien, because if I was right, then I shouldn’t listen to him, but if I was wrong, I would find out before it could do any damage to the innocents.)

@Samraku

Partially correct. I am an astronaut.

(I was trying to use the tm sequence to imply that yebellz was partially correct, without privileging either his correctness or wrongness. I thought yebellz would pick up on this, but maybe he did and just didn’t mention it.)

[Samraku]

I have work today, but hopefully Ruby will come back with some useful info by my first break.

[ginger2008]

Please! @RubyMineshaft ! Tell them! I am an astronaut! Please! I don’t want to die. I am a innocent astronaut! Please tell me you inspected me!

[Samraku]

@ginger2008

@RubyMineshaft , if you don’t mind, please inspect me next night. I am a innocent with no abilities. I don’t want to die!

If you’re truly an astronaut, shouldn’t you hope the detective found the last mimic, since we win as a team?

[ginger2008]

Makes sense. What should we do now?

[Samraku]

I say wait for Ruby to see what he discovered.

[RubyMineshaft]

Good morning. Unfortunately, I didn’t find the last mimic last night. @ginger2008 is innocent, so we need to look elsewhere.

Since I will not survive the night, I need to share my concerns with the rest of you. I’ve been thinking about how strange it is that Lieutenant @yebellz has survived this long without being targeted by the aliens. With as much as he’s been doing to help, it would make sense to get rid of him the first or second night.

I’ve really been torn about investigating him. I ultimately didnt because I don’t think he’s a mimic, but the last of these creatures could very well be the person we’d least suspect.

[ginger2008]

@RubyMineshaft

Since I will not survive the night, I need to share my concerns with the rest of you. I’ve been thinking about how strange it is that Lieutenant @yebellz has survived this long without being targeted by the aliens. With as much as he’s been doing to help, it would make sense to get rid of him the first or second night.

Coming to think of it,
that is quite suspicious, because the mimics will like to annihilate the smart people first. Voting for him.

[Samraku]

Well, this complicates things.

@yebellz

• RubyMineshaft (claimed to be detective)
• HHG (innocent according to Ruby)
• Samraku (replaced Sports_for_Life)
• Assai
• KAOSkonfused
• yebellz
• ginger2008

So…

Ruby is the detective and will get killed tonight, HHG and ginger are confirmed innocent by him, so that leaves 4 players, one of whom is the mimic.

Assai (23 posts)
KAOSkonfused (40 posts)
yebellz (79 posts)
Samraku (15 posts)

I’ll ignore myself for the moment since the best way I know to argue for innocence is to participate enough that it becomes increasingly unlikely a mimic would have avoided revealing themselves by then.

I’m reading Assai’s posts, and even though he hasn’t posted much, the posts seem genuine and relevant. He was doing quite a bit off roleplaying at the beginning, which may indicate a capacity for subterfuge, but that would be conflating possible with probable. Assai seems solid to me.

KAOS is giving solid advice to the detective not to immediately reveal and the bodyguards to wait to guard him, but that is advice which would have been given by someone anyway… But KAOS has been helpful interpreting for people suffering from MED. Also he defended Sports when he could have easily bandwagoned against him for faking MED. I think he looks innocent as well, though maybe a bit less so than Assai, though Assai’s low post count is still suspicious regardless of how the content in them reads.

I don’t have time to look at yebellz posts before work, but hopefully there’s some evidence there. See you all on my first break.

[KAOSkonfused]

Now this is a really interesting situation.
I didn’t believe Cool, but he apparently was the second bodyguard, and Gia was lying to us about Leira (quite a clever move to get us all to suspect each other).

What we know so far:

100% confirmed innocents:

• HHG (inspected by Ruby)
• ginger (inspected by Ruby)
  (because even if Ruby was not the actual detective but a mimic, these two must be innocent)

more or less confirmed innocent:

• Ruby (detective, who provided us with only true statements )
• Samraku/Sports (suspected by Gia and therefore probably innocent)

not confirmed:

• KAOS
• yebellz
• Assai

So… I mean, I know that I am innocent, but of course I can’t prove it to anybody, I can just hope that each of you noticed how much I’ve been trying to help.
Yebellz has also been extremely helpful, and I would be very surprised if he turned out to be a mimic.
Which leaves Assai. I didn’t have a reason to mistrust him so far, but I trust him less than yebellz. I guess we should reread everything he said.

Ruby will probably die next night, so he won’t be able to inspect anyone for us. We are on our own now.

[Assai]

I think it would be helpful if @HHG, @ginger2008 and @RubyMineshaft in particular said who they suspect and why, since the remaining mimic must be under @KAOSkonfused , @yebellz, @Samraku and Assai and the four of us can therefore be trusted less. I know I’m innocent, but a mimic would say that now, too. Wouldn’t they, KAOS?

[KAOSkonfused]

I took another look at our logs, and to be honest, I can’t see anything suspicious about @Assai. And I also think that Samraku/Sports is innocent, despite his, uhm, childish behavior during the first days.

@yebellz

Given the 14 players (with 3 innocent) that we have here, I think there is a bit more leeway to considering a first day kill, since players are more expendable. However, I am still against it, since I think we’re much more likely to make a misstep that worsens our position.

A Freudian slip?
But well, that also doesn’t have to mean anything.

I agree with Assai: Now it’s most important to learn what HHG, Ginger and Ruby are thinking.

[RubyMineshaft]

I will need some time to review the security footage; there’s a lot that’s happened.

@ginger2008

Voting for him

Unless we find more solid evidence than “He’s still alive,” I don’t intend to vote for him today. Realistically, the same could be said about any of us. We’ve all survived this long, and the mimics only had two chances to target him before having to shift their attention to me.

I only wanted to mention the possibility in case it gets overlooked in the upcoming days.

[KAOSkonfused]

Did you know @yebellz was actually the first one who draw attention to Sports, even before it turned out Sports was faking having MED?

@yebellz

I had my doubts about @Leira, and maybe others did as well. Given his innocence, it might have been wise for the mimics to have kept him around. However, perhaps he may have been onto something, which the mimics wished to silence.

@Leira

@Sports_for_Life went with the flow of the tide, and didn’t even try to make a convincing explanation.

@Leira

So far, @Sports_for_Life was still his top pick.

However, this is still no proof, it’s just something that looks a bit suspicious in hindsight.

Edit:
@yebellz also was the first one to suspect Vagabond Lee. On the other hand, he shared very detailed thoughts on how the bodyguards should be acting so that we don’t lose them too soon:

@yebellz

If a bodyguard protects their self, they are only killed if they are directly targeted.

If a bodyguard protects someone else, they are killed if either they are directly targeted or who they are guarding is targeted. Hence, it increases the chance of the guards being killed.

Unfortunately, our bodyguards must sacrifice themselves to protect.

I think it is detrimental to lose a bodyguard for protecting a non-detective innocent, so hence I think it is best for the guards to minimize their risk of dying early, since they should save that skill for protecting the detective, which might reveal later.

---

@Gia

This makes me sceptical. One of them is 99% a mimic, why wouldn’t you want them gone?

Gia said this about Assai and Sports, when both seemed to have MED. After learning that Gia was a mimic, this led me to believe that @Assai must be innocent.

[KAOSkonfused]

Yesterday then, yebellz also tried pretty hard to frame Ginger as the remaining mimic (although Ginger had previously been suspected by Gia):

@yebellz

I think there are only 9 of us left (7 humans, 2 mimics)

1. RubyMineshaft (claimed to be detective)
2. HHG (innocent according to Ruby)
3. Cool_Person (claimed to be bodyguard)
4. Samraku (replaced Sports_for_Life)
5. Assai
6. KAOSkonfused
7. yebellz
8. ginger2008
9. Starline (mimic according to Ruby)

If we kill Starline as a mimic, and Cool_Person dies tonight, we will be left with 7 people tomorrow (6 human, 1 mimic):

1. RubyMineshaft (claimed to be detective)
2. HHG (innocent according to Ruby)
3. Samraku (replaced Sports_for_Life)
4. Assai
5. KAOSkonfused
6. yebellz
7. ginger2008

Best case would be that Ruby finds the last mimic, but at worst, he will confirm another person as innocent. Either way, we can kill the last mimic, @ginger2008, and win the game.

@yebellz

Some interesting observations about @Starline’s past statements

Mimics:
Sports: 85%
Vagabond: 80%
Cool Person: 50%
Assai: 25%
Haze: 15%
Fiddlehead: 10%
Kaos: 10%
Yebellz: 5%
Gia: 5%
Ruby: 5%
HHG: 5%
Starline: 5%
That adds up to 300%, right? Yeah.

“Forgot” to mention ginger altogether

This narrows it down, to these players, of which exactly 2 are mimics.
Haze with a Z
Sports for Life
Cool Person
Assai
KAOSKonfused
yebellz
ginger2008
Starline

Subtly puts their self and ginger at the bottom of the list

Final mimic standings:
Gia: 99%
ginger2008: 53%
Sports_for_Life: 44%
Assai: 36%
KAOSkonfused: 35%
Haze_with_a_Z: 9%
Starline: 8%
Cool_Person: 8%
yebellz: 8%

Finds ginger to be highly suspicious, but their reasoning
[…]
seems highly contrived, and almost seems like a deliberate straw man argument for someone else to knock down. Prior to this post, @ginger2008 had only used the word “we” a few times

@ginger2008

But if we pretend yebellz was a mimic, he is acting, so you are fooled

“Pretend” is an interesting choice of words. A human would be uncertain, but a mimic would have to pretend.

Starline’s list are indeed interesting. Yebellz is also always among the least suspicious on these lists.

But, again, no proof, only possible clues.

[Samraku]

Can we just force a win at this point? If we lynch an innocent today, that leaves us with a 4 to 1 advantage. Then if the same happens tomorrow, it will still be 2 to 1, but we’ll be 99% certain who to lynch by a 2 to 1 majority, no?

[KAOSkonfused]

No, I don’t think we can force a win.

It’s 1:6 (mimics:innocents) at the moment, right?
HHG and Ginger are confirmed innocents.

Then there is Ruby, and there are four others (I am quite sure Samraku and Assai are innocent, but can’t be 100% sure, so…).

We will kill one of these four today. Let’s assume we’ll kill an innocent person today, then what will happen next?

Possible endings:

1. Ruby is dead tomorrow morning. We will then know for sure Ruby was the detective. It will be 1:4. Let’s assume we’ll have bad luck and lynch an innocent again - then the mimic will kill one of the confirmed innocents and we’ll have 1:2 the next day, consisting of one confirmed innocent and 2 others, so the ending will depend on who the confirmed innocent will believe.

2. Ruby is alive tomorrow morning. This would not necessarily mean that he is the mimic, but might be a ruse to confuse us. Instead, one of the confirmed innocents is dead. It’ll be 1:4, but with only one confirmed innocent. (Unless Ruby can confirm another innocent, then this information is correct, no matter if Ruby is a mimic or not.)
   2a) We kill Ruby and he is the mimic, the game is over.
   2b) We kill Ruby and he turns out to be innocent - then we can use the information he gave us that day, and we will have another confirmed innocent (or the real mimic!). But again, one confirmed innocent will die that night through the mimic and we’ll be left with only one confirmed innocent and 1:2 - same situation, (as long as Ruby didn’t reveal the mimic) it all depends on whom the remaining confirmed innocent will believe more.
   2c) We don’t kill Ruby, so we won’t know if he is a mimic or not.
   Ok, now it get’s too complicated.

@HHG @ginger2008 , now it’s really important to hear your opinions on the remaining suspects…