Werewolf Game 4: Madness of the Martian Mimics

Yes. Letting a night pass is not a mistake. What I am worried about is that people will not want to vote to kill people tomorrow after doing it on day 1.

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You better believe him. :stuck_out_tongue:

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It might be impossible for everyone to read everything if this game keeps exploding like this. Maybe that’s intentional? OK, that is unlikely because you like to post very much, but still it’s a possible strategy. really going to bed now :bed: :walking_man: :zzz:

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I never said that. I did want to try posting a lot and I figured why not.

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@Haze_with_a_Z, why are you so over-eager? I know you, so it’s probably because you want us to win and kill the bad guys, but you’re making everyone anxious.

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I’ve seen worse. Everyone can read everything.

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Because I don’t feel like doing my overly intimidating correspondence moves but I don’t have self control to not sign up for tournaments. Also because no one has said anything bad about that until just now. I will take a break from posting in here for everyone’s sake.

Everyone:
I am still an astronaut. Don’t lump me into those mimics’s plots.

Edit: doing those correspondence moves now.

Edit 2: I got my move count below 70! Now is break time. I will come back later to post, but I will try to not intimidate anyone.

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I need to go back to school now so I have to sleep earlier and wake up a bit later because I wake up super early
I am voting for yebbelz just to take the risk actually what are the chances of getting evil two times in a row

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Whoah, folks, calm down!
Here is channel 08 and today’s song is "The martian boogie!’

The news is right after this song, so don’t tune away!Z

(Edit: This thread exploded right after i left my computer.)

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What the hell is going on around here? Why didn’t any of you override my stasis pod? I was stuck halfway through reanimation for 16 hours!

Where is the commander? Did all of your training just get tossed out the minute he disappeared? I am severely disappointed in this crew. Instead of organizing a search party for Commander V, you’ve been standing around talking about killing martians? Why did I join this mission
?

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It can happen. Also, he wasn’t evil last time.

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@HHG, we haven’t heard anything from you yet. Are you awake? Do you have any thoughts?

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Is @HHG the only person who wasn’t on?? @Haze_with_a_Z

Why are you tagging me? Just look for yourself. Yes, he was the only person who hasn’t been on(or at least hasn’t posted in here).
Some people have posted one post of really nothing, but at least they showed up.

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Sorry to interrupt, but @Haze_with_a_Z, you really have to let people join the game at their own pace. According to their profile @HHG hasn’t been on since the last 11 hours, so they haven’t even seen this thread. Please remember that not everybody has oceans of free time or lives in your timezone.

The day phase takes 48 hours, there’s still plenty of time left (we’re not even at 1/4 of the day phase)

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Of course, Leira had been aware of @RubyMineshaft’s mishap all this time. He ‘accidentally’ tripped over the cable while searching through their personal belongings making sure they were safe and sound.

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Meta

We are only about 11 (edit: it was slightly less than 10 when I started writing this) hours into our first 48-hour Martian day. Some people have talked a lot, while some have talked very little, or have not even joined the game at all. It’s way too early to worry about anyone’s participation level at this point. People also have lives outside of this forum, and don’t always have the bandwidth to respond at length to incessant pestering, even if they are checking the forum quite often and making the occasional quip about memes. Also, one cannot magically summon someone to appear if they just happen to be away for a dozen hours or more. Of course, I hope that everyone checks in before “midday” (within the first 24 hours) and that the quieter ones offer a bit more substance to statements, but there’s still plenty of time for that to happen.

The current situation

Haze_with_a_Z has completely dominated the conversation so far. Honestly, I do not know if whether they are a mimic that is just playing terribly by drawing so much attention to themselves, or if they are an innocent astronaut that is just playing terribly by making erratic decisions and accusations. Regardless, such chaotic behavior does not help our cause.

Right now, 9 people have cast a vote, six (Leira, Starline, KAOS, Assai, Haze, ginger) have voted for “nobody”, while three (Sports_for_Life, Cool_Person, 李ć»ș柔2) have voted for yebellz. Haze’s vote has jumped around a bit so far, with it resting on at least Assai, 李ć»ș柔2, and Gia at some point, I believe.

I don’t think any of the people voting against me (Sports_for_Life, Cool_Person, 李ć»ș柔2) have given any credible reason to suspect me so strongly, and it seems they are maybe just going along with a trend, seeing an opportunity to get along with lynching an innocent on the first day. I find their decision making to be highly concerning and suspicious.

To kill or not to kill?

Unless a mimic absolutely blunders into revealing themselves on day one, I think the strategy of a first day kill is questionable at best. If all of the innocent astronauts agree to cast random votes, the mimics would mostly likely be able to easily swing the vote into their favor, and thus give the innocents a worse than random chance of getting it right. Clearly, a no-kill does not help improve our position toward a win, but it does help us avoid worsening our position with a very likely mistarget.

With a fewer number of players (like the 7-8 total, with 2 evil, that we had in previous games), I think there is very compelling reason to avoid a first day kill, since there is such little room for error, and one needs to delay in hope of getting a lucky break on night 1.

Given the 14 players (with 3 innocent) that we have here, I think there is a bit more leeway to considering a first day kill, since players are more expendable. However, I am still against it, since I think we’re much more likely to make a misstep that worsens our position. Perhaps the biggest benefit to a first day kill is what the associated discussion and voting may tellingly reveal about the biases and positions of all of the players. However, the discussion and voting we’ve had so far already does something to that aim.

Regardless of how we vote today, I don’t think we should forgo killing tomorrow. Even mistargeted kills will yield some information as we view voting patterns and discussion.

How to corner the mimics

I think our best bet as innocents, to discover and eliminate that mimics, is to play openly and honestly, except that the special roles should keep their powers secret until the most opportune time. We should reason and propose what we think are the best plans of actions. We should leave it to the mimics to expose themselves through their inconsistencies and deceit as they attempt to manipulate the game.

I don’t think it’s a good idea for the detective to reveal too early, but we also cannot risk losing the detective before they share any information at all. We should discuss the strategy of this timing (see also the comments about bodyguards below).

Under no circumstance should an innocent human falsely claim to be the detective.

If someone does claim to be the detective, they should either be the actual detective or a mimic attempting a ruse. When/if that player eventually dies, their team revelation will confirm the truth.

Ultimately, unless we get incredibly lucky with the detective, we will not be able to find all of mimics through logical deduction alone. The game will come down to reading people and gut feelings. However, our tools for analysis do not end with the detective, we can and must also analyze voting patterns and the subtle nuance of the communication, campaigns, and factions that form around the voting.

The bodyguards are only useful to shield the detective

The protection offered by the bodyguards comes at the cost of losing the bodyguard. Hence, every night we will lose another innocent, whether it is the astronaut that was directly targeted by the mimics or the bodyguard that protected them. Until the detective has revealed themselves, I think the best strategy is for the bodyguards is to protect themselves every night (which is effectively choosing not to use their power). This reduces their chances of dying, since protecting someone else means they will die if either their protectee or their self was targeted. However, once the detective does reveal, the bodyguards should protect the detective, which would give us up to two more nights of investigations before losing the detective, who should keep this in mind when considering when to reveal.

Why talk so much about future strategy now?

Well, to help us innocents win. There’s no guarantee that I don’t meet an untimely demise today or tonight, and even if I do survive the first cycle, I may be afflicted with the emoji disease on day 2, and perish on the following night.

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It went on Sports, but never Gia. I think that Gia is innocent and I voted accordingly.

Well I am sorry if you think that. I wanted to try being super active, although I am shutting down with the community’s interests in mind.

Also I really like your post. I probably should do something like that instead of trying to dominate the conversation with many posts that I don’t always know what I am trying to do in.

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Also I think it went on you at some point too. Don’t try and pretend that never happened.

Also thanks for telling me that my strategy sucks. It was fun for a day though. I will try and update it so it is better tomorrow. Less random votes and more info.

Again, Sorry everyone for posting so much. I’ll shut up now.

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So know we know that there are 11 good, 3 evil. With the 2 bodyguards can protect 2 people, and the chance of protecting the detective is a mere 2/12. This might put the mimics in a leading position.

Please correct me if I’m wrong. I have some work to do. GTG.