Werewolf Game 5.1: Trouble in Steelwater Bog

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I believe we can still force a win after all.

[Edit: I made an error, but it was fixable if the witch uses her poison]

In the worst-case scenario we’ll lose 2 innocents each night from now on, one by us voting a suspect out, one by the snatchers. We can assume that James will only discover innocents in a worst-case scenario as well. We can also assume that the witch dies tonight (and is the lover of another innocent). Finally we can assume that in a worst-case scenario the protector dies tonight and the oracle dies tomorrow night.

Let’s say the witch does not use her poison.

  • D3: 8-2 (5 suspects)
    This is the end of today. Roy is killed by vote.

  • N3: 6-2 (4 suspects, because James confirms one innocent)
    This is the start of tomorrow, the lovers are killed

  • D4: 5-2 (3 suspects)
    This is the end of tomorrow, we vote out one suspect

If James dies on N4

  • N4: 4-2 (3 suspects)
    This is the start of day 5, one innocent non-suspect is killed by the snatchers

  • D5: 3-2 (2 suspects)
    This is the end of day 5, we vote out one suspect.

  • N5: 2-2 (2 suspects)
    This is the start of Day 6, one innocent non-suspect is killed by the snatchers.
    Two suspects are left, and two snatchers are left: if no snatchers had been killed yet, we know both of the snatchers now. But it is too late, since the snatchers can tie the vote, and kill at night.
    We lose in this scenario.

If James survives N4

  • N4: 4-2 (2 suspects, James confirms another innocent)
    If we had not yet killed any snatchers, then we know the two snatchers now

  • D5: 4-1 (1 suspect)

  • N5: 3-1 (1 suspect)

  • D6: 3-0 (we win)

The chance is high that James survives N4, but we shouldn’t risk it.
A better option:

Let’s say the witch does use her poison, but kills an innocent.

  • D3: 8-2 (5 suspects)
    This is the end of today. Roy is killed by vote.

  • N3: 5-2 (3 suspects, because James confirms one innocent, the witch kills another)
    This is the start of tomorrow, the lovers are killed.

  • D4: 4-2 (2 suspects)
    This is the end of tomorrow, we vote out one suspect. We now know both snatchers if none had been killed yet.

  • N4: 3-2 (2 suspects)
    This is the start of day 5, one innocent non-suspect is killed by the snatchers

  • D5: 3-1 (1 suspect)
    This is the end of day 5, we vote out one snatcher.

  • N5: 2-1 (1 suspect)
    This is the start of Day 6, one innocent non-suspect is killed by the snatchers.

  • D6: 2-0
    We kill the other snatcher at the end of Day 6, we win.

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