a capture confirms Gia and Jon Ko are on team Black. Depending on what one believes about richyfourtytwo and NeilAgg , one could increase one’s belief that either of them is the last remaining member of team White.
a survival confirms that richyfourtytwo and NeilAgg are on team Black. Depending on what one believes about Gia and Jon Ko , one could incease one’s belief that either of them is the last remaining member of team White.
Regardless of what I play, two members of team Black are confirmed, and the last remaining member of team White becomes a 50 / 50 probability between two players (ignoring speculation, suspicion and so on).
Under my personal assumption that both NeilAgg and Jon Ko are rebel-believers, that means that a confirmed player of team Black and an unconfirmed player of team White will have their move before MystWalker & yebellz can make theirs. In other words, Black can reinforce the bottom left with certainty, or expand on the right with certainty.
If richyfourtytwo plays L10
Another scenario is richyfourtytwo agreeing to play L10, where I would play a move that he agrees with, and that refusing to uphold his end of the deal would be a confirmation of him not being a settler-believer. The possible conclusions are:
a capture confirms that Gia and Jon Ko and NeilAgg on team Black and richyfourtytwo is confirmed as team White.
a survival confirms that richyfourtytwo belongs to team Black, and leaves the last member of team White uncertain among Jon Ko , Gia and NeilAgg .
Here the outcomes are unbalanced: we get complete information in case of a capture, and little information in case of a non-capture.
Under my personal assumption that both NeilAgg and Jon Ko are rebel-believers, we learn the unconfirmed last member of team White, but it’s a toss-up on whether a confirmed member of team Black or an unconfirmed member of team White has their move before MystWalker & yebellz can make theirs. However, in this case I may be able to arrange a move with richyfourtytwo that benefits White slightly more than me playing L10 would.
The most dangerous part of this, is that if richyfourtytwo is rebel-believer or otherwise does not feel like cooperating, I may be manipulated into making a wasteful move in return for no information at all. We’ve seen NeilAgg doing this by promising to play L10 before Jon Ko moved, and then play something different afterwards (although Jon Ko seems to not mind that)
I will not play L10. Here’s why: I don’t don’t know what team I’m on, it’s a coin toss. But I think it is likely that I (and everyone) will find out soon, regardless of where I play. So I will play a move that makes sense regardless of which team I’m on.
I wish to be a real settler of course, if only because switching loyalties doesn’t come easy to me and I don’t want to be rebellious. But I know there was some inbreeding in my family, so I have to deal with that 50% chance of an inherited amnesia.
I see. I’m not sure if I can make sense of that, but I guess you’re going to claim that you’re the spy, that @yebellz is a rebel, and that I (or one of the other members of team White) am the amnesiac, in an effort to convince @richyfourtytwo that he belongs to team Black.
I believe our top priority is cutting team Black into two groups. We have 5 moves per round, versus 4 moves for the Black team. Moreover, with MystWalker → Gia → yebellz we have a triple move as well, so we can capture any groups that have as much as three playable liberties.
I’m still not entirely sure what’s going on. But we know for sure that @Gia and @Jon_Ko cannot be on the same team, so one of them is my friend. Either way, M9 looks like a move nicely reinforcing one or the other.
We could attempt to use our next triple move to capture the tengen stone. or try to capture the L9 & M9 stones; both have only four liberties. We could also capture M11, making Gia’s allegiance completely certain, and try to create a living group in the corner (we’d only have one chance, since the group currently has two liberties, and can be captured by Jon Ko & NeilAgg).
With yebellz helping in capturing something, we’d get absolute certainty about the team of the spy as well.
plays L10
and Jon Ko 
are on team Black. Depending on what one believes about richyfourtytwo 
and NeilAgg 
, one could increase one’s belief that either of them is the last remaining member of team White.
& yebellz 
can make theirs. In other words, Black can reinforce the bottom left with certainty, or expand on the right with certainty.
is a rebel, and that I (or one of the other members of team White) am the amnesiac, in an effort to convince 
