Ok, hearing no objections from Team White, I’ll make my move
yebellz moves at N11
After @martin3141 confirms the capture, it will be @Leira’s turn
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(I’m not able to make the full post I would like to.)
“I pway fow youw peopwe’s safety, and tank dem for deir bwavewy.”
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An overconfident claim from the Viscount, but let’s wait and see.
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I mean, might as well be true though. It would mean that I’ve been wrong about every single hypothesis; but, somehow, I don’t think so.
I believe duchess @Gia 
is not on my team, and yet the capture will not occur 
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Assuming your assumptions are correct, can’t you just play L12 and then one of us follows up with capturing?
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@Jon_Ko 
, if the capture of M11 does not happen, do you consider it more likely that you are a member of team White, or that @yebellz 
is a member of team Black?
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I believe it’s more likely that the spy is on team black, and that’s why I think the capture won’t happen.
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No capture occurs.
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Could you explain why you think this is more likely? What makes you trust that you are on team Black more than that you are on team White?
We’re in a difficult situation right now in any case. I believe that regardless of which team the rebels are, it is evident that the settlers have a big problem. Let’s assume that yebellz 
is the spy, which it seems that everyone agrees on.
-
Case 1 - Assuming that team White is the settler team, then we currently have confirmed that the settlers are yebellz
, Vsotvep 
, MystWalker 
, Barbanaira 
and Jon Ko 
. In this case Jon Ko mistakenly believes he is Black and prefers to cooperate with the rebel team. -
Case 2 - Assuming that team Black is the settler team, then we currently have confirmed that the settlers are yebellz
, Leira 
, richyfourtytwo 
, NeilAgg 
, and…-
Case 2a - Gia
is the last remaining settler. -
Case 2b - Jon Ko
is the last remaining settler.
In both subcases yebellz
mistakenly believes he is White and prefers to cooperate with the rebel team. -
I’ll put my personal thoughts in a separate post.
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Let me explain why I’m of opinion that Jon Ko should believe that he is on team White. That is, let me explain why I think it is unfeasible that we are currently in case 2b.
Firstly, remember that the rebels for the majority are aware of being rebels and of their team mates.
If I 
am aware of being a rebel, it is hard to explain why I would put pressure on Barbanaira to play C10, or why I would throw-in at L10, since both moves are terrible from a rebel perspective, and I would be aware of that. I hope this is convincing enough to believe that I am either a settler or the amnesiac.
(Needless to say, perhaps, but personally I am extra convinced of this, since I do know my role, and thus I don’t have to assume that I’d be the amnesiac, I know that if I am a rebel, then I’m the amnesiac.)
In case 2b, MystWalker chose to play L7 instead of N11, but here MystWalker would know that N11 captures Leira . This would have been excellent to convince both yebellz and the amnesiac (me ) that Gia is the last member of team White, and would’ve left us with a living corner. I find the stubbornness of MystWalker believable, but I find it hard to believe he would not seize that chance to spread both useful information to the amnesiac and misinformation to the spy. By capturing N11 and asking yebellz to attack NeilAgg’s corner, the rebels could furthermore make the settler spy waste a moves “protecting” an already extremely heavy corner.
To me, this sounds unbelievable, so I don’t think we’re currently in case 2b.
If we are currently not in case 2b, then one thing is certain: Jon Ko is on team White.
@Jon_Ko, I’d like to hear how you consider the above argument.
I’m also aware that if we are in case 2a, then Jon Ko is aware of being on team White, since I’d be the amnesiac. In this case Jon Ko has strategic advantage to claim to be on the Black team, and I’m currently ruining that advantage for the rebels by helping the settlers.
So once again, if I’m a rebel, tell me or I will do all in my power to make the settlers win.
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Filling C10 takes away the possibilities for more throw-ins, each giving additional information to the settlers. L10 seemingly connects Gia’s stones.
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L10 connects stones that can be captured next turn and gives a lot of extra information. Also, those stones need not be connected at all for the group to live in the corner. I’ve been playing for information practically the entire game. Why would a knowing rebel do that?
How about NeilAgg basically admitting that he is both on team Black and that team Black is the rebel team, and that yebellz is on team White? Is that not at all suspicious to you?
What about Barbanaira agreeing with MystWalker playing L7? Surely not both of them are amnesiacs.
You’re giving no explanation at all here, at least put some effort in explaining why you are more convinced to be on team Black than on team White, what we currently have is “I believe it’s more likely” and that’s it…
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I’m fine with uncertainty, I trust the stars to guide me.
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I firmly believe that we’re in case 1. For all the reasons that @Vsotvep mentioned, and all of my suspicions about Team Black members not helping with revealing information, I think that Team White are by far the most convincing settlers. I will continue to fully support Team White, until definitively proven otherwise by board plays.
Both @Jon_Ko and @Leira seem to confidently believe that it is case 2b. Given that, it makes sense for them to test that theory by having @Leira play at L12, followed by @Jon_Ko at N9 or N10 (depending on if @Barbanaira moves there or not).
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I firmly believe we are in scenario 2a.
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I find it hard to understand what’s going on when I assume nobody is behaving in a weird way bordering irrational. If I have to accept that somebody is doing exactly that I am suddenly not entirely sure anymore that yebellz is the spy, because the only reason for believing that is that surely the real spy would have spoken by now. And with rationality out of the window, that’s not so sure.
Of course a more likely explanation is that everyone is behaving rationally, but with strategies far more convoluted than this tiny brain can understand.
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Are you saying that you are a Rebel and telling @Vsotvep that he is the amnesiac?
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I think that there have been some logical errors and mistakes along the way, so it’s natural to see some degree of irrational play.
The significance of @Barbanaira’s latest post should be emphasized, as it is essentially an open claim to be a Rebel. This is seemingly in contradiction with @NeilAgg’s earlier claim to be a Rebel. I was not expecting to see this game reach such a situation (two competing claims of being a rebel), so someone must be making a logical/strategic error, among others seen in this game.
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This is the scenario we need to work with. He is the smartest guy on our team and he needs transparency to lead us to victory. We can’t let others make territory for our team while they don’t. Otherwise, it would be just as if the spy (you) were the amnesiac.
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