Win rate by players ranks in OGS

I made this chart that show the win rate of black in OGS. Row is black rank, column is white rank. The +k in column means that white is k kyu stronger than black. In summary, every kyu rank roughly increases the win rate by 10%.

black win rates, total: 17799
b/w    +0    +1    +2    +3    +4
20k    52    45    27    33    23
19k    51    48    32    26    29
18k    39    40    34    28    25
17k    56    40    35    28    28
16k    43    44    28    23    30
15k    50    37    34    23    23
14k    46    46    35    25    20
13k    46    41    36    24    20
12k    47    43    35    21    23
11k    46    38    32    25     8
10k    49    45    38    28    26
 9k    49    39    32    27    11
 8k    44    41    37    20    18
 7k    51    38    25    23    12
 6k    46    39    28    16    25
 5k    49    38    24    27    10
 4k    46    45    29    31    11
 3k    45    38    19    19    24
 2k    45    33    20     9     -
 1k    43    43    18     -     -
 1d    45    41    12     -     -
  *    47    41    30    24    21


game counts, total: 17799
b/w    +0    +1    +2    +3    +4
20k    67   139   102    89    47
19k    81   152   137    81    42
18k   104   160   144   124    57
17k   107   194   151   111    65
16k   125   223   185   137    74
15k   143   234   217   137    73
14k   161   285   265   155    64
13k   166   330   242   138    65
12k   202   348   254   154    57
11k   228   337   279   125    50
10k   287   405   272   167    53
 9k   286   385   234   132    54
 8k   252   299   237   158    61
 7k   252   390   323   176    49
 6k   280   471   264   139    32
 5k   395   432   303   112    30
 4k   290   391   164   103    37
 3k   377   400   225   124    21
 2k   173   223   128    32     -
 1k   112   146    40     -     -
 1d   129    71    25     -     -
  *  4240  6021  4194  2411   934

Some details:

  • Data is crawled from the OGS api in 2 days.
  • The sample size is not really big (~200), so the win rate is likely not accurate.
  • Only 19x19, non-handicapped, 6.5 komi, non-timeout games are counted.
7 Likes

Right, that’s it. When I get to 18k I’m dropping black, white all the way for me :smiley: :wink:

1 Like

Thank you for this interesting compilation. It doesn’t surprise me. I believe komi is too large for weaker players, as they lack the ability to exploit the advantage of the first move (I can personally vouch for this!). I talked about this on another thread, New Way of Deciding Komi.The outliers for 20, 19, and 17k are hard to explain, but the large swing at 18k suggests that these ranks are part of some statistical flukeβ€”perhaps the effects of sandbaggers. You know something is not right when 18k players of black are losing more games against equal players than against players who are a stone stronger.

1 Like

Note that the sample size was ~ 200 games for each stat so we can’t say much about the anomaly at 18k. One thing to note, though:

Isn’t it more likely that komi is irrelevant for weaker players? The game is far more likely to be decided by mistakes that cause huge swings in the score.

2 Likes

It’d be interesting to do this again with the new ranks …

5 Likes

total number of games (live, 19x19, ranked): 267152
max deviation: 125
timerange: 2018-01-01 to 2019-10-01

column is blacks rank, row white-black. 0 is everything within Β±1, the others (1, 2, -1, …) are 1 rank wide.

winrate black

rank -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
25k – – – – – – – – – 50.3% 23.2% 23.6% 16.5% 16.5% 13.5% 8.1% 6.8% 13.5% 12.2%
24k – – – – – – – – 75.7% 42.4% 32.4% 21.0% 16.5% 17.6% 8.7% 12.9% 4.1% 2.9% 6.5%
23k – – – – – – – 79.7% 62.7% 45.9% 28.2% 17.9% 23.2% 13.0% 5.8% 8.0% 9.0% 6.5% 3.8%
22k – – – – – – 80.8% 71.1% 71.3% 49.9% 34.8% 32.1% 21.7% 17.4% 13.7% 16.0% 15.3% 8.5% 6.2%
21k – – – – – 82.9% 78.4% 73.5% 66.4% 49.2% 33.7% 26.7% 19.2% 18.3% 14.0% 6.0% 12.4% 8.8% 3.6%
20k – – – – 79.8% 74.6% 76.0% 73.5% 69.5% 51.0% 34.4% 28.2% 22.7% 15.4% 13.2% 10.1% 7.7% 4.1% 4.4%
19k – – – 80.4% 87.8% 78.9% 71.4% 73.6% 67.2% 51.6% 37.5% 27.6% 20.9% 15.4% 11.0% 9.4% 7.0% 5.4% 4.8%
18k – – 88.5% 85.1% 83.2% 74.1% 76.6% 74.6% 67.1% 52.4% 39.2% 32.2% 24.8% 20.5% 11.9% 12.3% 7.4% 5.8% 10.3%
17k – 84.6% 86.3% 76.7% 76.6% 78.2% 75.6% 72.5% 69.5% 55.3% 39.5% 27.5% 22.4% 17.3% 12.6% 8.4% 7.7% 3.1% 5.4%
16k 90.7% 97.4% 80.9% 92.1% 81.5% 80.2% 77.3% 72.7% 66.5% 49.7% 34.4% 25.9% 18.6% 14.3% 9.7% 9.8% 5.8% 4.1% 8.2%
15k 95.2% 83.8% 88.0% 84.5% 85.2% 84.3% 77.6% 74.4% 69.5% 51.0% 36.9% 27.0% 19.5% 13.5% 9.5% 6.1% 6.0% 4.2% 3.1%
14k 93.1% 86.8% 89.4% 94.4% 82.6% 83.6% 82.3% 81.5% 75.3% 54.0% 37.7% 27.4% 22.8% 19.1% 13.2% 12.9% 9.5% 6.0% 2.8%
13k 83.3% 95.1% 83.6% 83.3% 86.1% 86.6% 83.3% 78.3% 72.2% 54.0% 34.1% 26.2% 18.2% 14.8% 12.2% 7.4% 5.6% 4.1% 7.1%
12k 95.0% 90.0% 80.8% 85.3% 86.8% 82.7% 84.6% 77.6% 72.0% 53.8% 33.0% 23.3% 15.5% 11.3% 8.7% 10.7% 5.4% 2.5% 1.9%
11k 86.7% 89.7% 84.8% 93.3% 87.7% 84.9% 83.6% 81.2% 74.9% 56.4% 36.9% 23.7% 16.1% 10.9% 8.6% 6.6% 6.6% 4.9% 3.9%
10k 91.8% 89.7% 92.8% 92.2% 84.1% 83.7% 85.6% 79.5% 74.3% 52.6% 31.3% 20.3% 15.1% 13.0% 8.1% 5.1% 3.9% 5.1% 0.0%
9k 96.3% 90.8% 92.9% 92.4% 89.9% 89.2% 82.4% 80.7% 77.3% 55.8% 33.6% 25.5% 16.8% 10.9% 7.8% 7.0% 5.7% 1.1% 0.0%
8k 92.3% 97.7% 90.2% 89.1% 92.0% 86.7% 86.7% 82.0% 77.6% 55.6% 34.5% 22.3% 13.8% 10.3% 11.6% 5.1% 1.9% 0.0% 10.5%
7k 100.0% 90.7% 75.5% 91.7% 90.0% 84.2% 79.1% 80.3% 77.2% 54.7% 32.2% 21.4% 13.6% 11.1% 4.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
6k 93.9% 90.1% 89.9% 88.6% 87.0% 85.6% 82.2% 81.3% 75.7% 54.5% 32.8% 17.9% 13.3% 8.4% 9.6% 6.5% 0.0% 2.1% 12.5%
5k 94.2% 96.2% 95.9% 91.1% 85.4% 87.2% 80.9% 80.0% 72.3% 53.8% 32.7% 22.0% 13.2% 8.4% 6.4% 4.4% 5.6% 8.0% 0.0%
4k 94.9% 95.5% 96.5% 91.2% 89.4% 87.3% 86.8% 80.9% 73.8% 53.2% 33.9% 18.7% 11.4% 9.7% 5.8% 0.0% 7.1% 9.4% 0.0%
3k 98.1% 95.9% 93.2% 92.0% 90.9% 90.9% 86.9% 80.8% 74.3% 56.3% 34.4% 22.1% 13.9% 10.4% 4.8% 8.7% 2.4% 6.2% 0.0%
2k 83.3% 100.0% 88.2% 91.7% 91.7% 90.8% 84.9% 76.9% 72.5% 51.7% 28.5% 14.8% 13.2% 5.2% 9.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1k 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 96.1% 94.1% 90.0% 82.9% 81.0% 80.7% 62.2% 29.7% 21.4% 10.6% 3.3% 1.9% 5.9% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0%
1d 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 98.0% 91.5% 91.9% 88.9% 77.7% 88.0% 64.5% 37.0% 22.9% 13.8% 22.9% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% –
2d – 100.0% 94.4% 98.9% 93.4% 79.7% 90.7% 86.5% 83.3% 59.8% 22.9% 14.3% 33.3% 0.0% – – – – –
3d – 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 81.2% 88.5% 81.8% 66.7% 85.7% 70.5% 0.0% 28.6% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% – – – –
4d 66.7% – 80.0% 80.0% 81.0% 81.2% 65.4% 50.0% 77.8% 47.4% 42.9% 25.0% 16.7% 0.0% – – – – –
5d 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 80.0% 80.0% 93.0% 67.9% 68.8% 11.1% 25.0% 11.1% 57.1% 14.3% – – – – – –
6d 100.0% 100.0% 75.0% 92.9% 94.7% 97.6% 66.7% 66.7% 70.4% 26.1% 28.6% 33.3% – – – – – – –
7d 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 57.1% 77.8% 54.5% 38.9% 27.3% 0.0% 0.0% – – – – – – –
8d 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 93.3% 76.5% 71.4% 14.3% – – – – – – – – –
9d – 100.0% – 100.0% – 60.0% 93.3% 63.6% 0.0% 0.0% – – – – – – – – –

number of games

rank -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
25k – – – – – – – – – 3051 293 254 230 158 141 124 74 52 41
24k – – – – – – – – 169 203 111 105 97 102 104 70 49 35 31
23k – – – – – – – 153 110 344 206 235 224 231 139 112 100 62 52
22k – – – – – – 177 114 178 521 299 321 299 219 168 131 124 82 65
21k – – – – – 181 88 155 214 644 374 371 312 262 229 182 121 114 83
20k – – – – 183 67 125 219 275 786 514 472 423 421 318 248 168 123 90
19k – – – 143 49 95 175 208 348 1122 646 626 665 546 373 307 258 186 104
18k – – 131 47 95 143 197 323 514 1415 883 853 751 635 447 359 202 121 87
17k – 104 51 73 111 193 234 374 663 1769 1060 920 782 664 541 356 246 128 74
16k 86 39 68 101 124 207 300 458 689 2116 1167 1167 995 813 607 397 277 170 97
15k 21 37 50 71 108 197 331 594 869 2618 1525 1587 1474 1181 885 626 418 287 193
14k 29 53 66 89 138 250 368 585 964 3180 2046 1973 1718 1362 906 581 398 268 178
13k 24 41 55 108 144 232 347 627 1141 3494 2139 2186 1835 1205 776 501 408 244 127
12k 20 60 52 95 144 214 422 692 1152 3902 2702 2386 1742 1073 689 447 331 204 106
11k 45 68 92 120 187 331 495 922 1464 5018 2828 2287 1638 935 604 424 244 122 77
10k 61 58 97 116 227 343 610 1092 1909 5644 2825 2182 1456 880 619 389 257 98 47
9k 54 76 99 145 267 407 687 1127 1769 5039 2237 1705 1243 895 540 284 176 87 44
8k 39 44 82 101 212 301 489 800 1349 3997 1985 1706 1279 759 440 196 104 63 19
7k 29 43 53 108 220 298 416 676 1220 4254 2434 2117 1393 748 422 232 111 42 23
6k 49 71 158 273 269 347 432 705 1364 5165 2840 2122 1274 808 313 153 52 47 16
5k 103 182 316 315 287 374 565 981 1811 5834 2759 1885 1165 548 250 90 71 50 6
4k 98 111 171 170 254 370 608 1073 1807 5088 2020 1421 765 402 206 101 42 32 15
3k 53 98 103 100 154 317 578 933 1334 3074 1272 768 380 240 104 46 41 16 12
2k 6 43 17 48 133 217 464 597 687 1845 759 467 295 193 53 39 35 9 3
1k 2 8 54 77 152 281 304 348 503 1263 505 364 199 61 52 34 13 2 4
1d 11 12 6 51 142 148 144 130 200 550 181 96 58 48 27 9 1 1 –
2d – 2 18 94 76 59 43 52 84 194 35 35 12 4 – – – – –
3d – 4 2 2 16 26 22 30 21 61 11 7 7 1 1 – – – –
4d 3 – 5 15 21 16 26 14 18 19 7 4 6 2 – – – – –
5d 3 4 1 5 10 57 28 16 9 36 9 7 7 – – – – – –
6d 2 5 8 14 19 41 18 15 27 23 7 3 – – – – – – –
7d 5 2 4 15 19 7 9 11 18 11 5 4 – – – – – – –
8d 1 1 16 19 4 10 15 17 7 7 – – – – – – – – –
9d – 6 – 1 – 5 15 11 3 6 – – – – – – – – –
7 Likes

DDKs find komi to be not enough eh…

Very cool. :slightly_smiling_face:

I’d like to colour the first table based on the second table with a red-yellow-green code (few games=red, many games =green).
It looks like some intersections aren’t very reliable.