I know it’s a painful thought, but rational thinking is never a priority.
Everyone, we’ve been in this situation one way or another for months now, how do you see things coming:
- June 1st?
- September 1st?
- December 1st?
I’m planning to revisit the answers as time goes by.
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Here are my “nearly pointless” assessments.
June 1: Some small businesses re-opened. People getting tired of lock-downs.
Sept 1: Most places are open, but social distancing still enabled until the vaccine. People start to focus on the things that happened during the media noise, namely government corruption stuff.
Dec 1: People so used to social distancing that it becomes second nature for a while, even after the vaccine.
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This seems like nonsense.
Wealthy people get wealthy people’s health care. A poor person may die with the virus in their home while trying to look after their family, without even seeing a doctor first.
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This is true and ofc poor people are more likely to be compelled to continue working where possible, despite the risks.
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Tomorrow:
Russia is in top 10 (realistic)
While rest of the world is recovered, Russia will have more than 10k / day (pessimistic)
vaccine (optimistic) or The Second Wave
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Wealthy people often have the luxury of being able to maintain a lifestyle that reduces the risk of infection in the first place. The poor need to continue working and don’t have the best means to protect themselves.
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There’s a high bar to amend the U.S. Constitution. You need either a 2/3 vote in both houses of Congress or 34/50 states voting for a constitutional convention. Then 38/50 states have to ratify the amendment. This is achievable when there is wide consensus. But someone has convinced 46% percent or so of this country that government is untrustworthy. As President Reagan put it, “Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.” That sentiment is still alive and well in my neck of the woods. Somewhere down the line, pride in freedom and democracy turned into opposition to communism, which turned into opposition to socialism, which turned into opposition to social programs by the government.
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I don’t think this is even true. Leaving aside that the rich have a better chance not to get the virus in the first place and even assuming they get the same level of healthcare* if they do, being poor is correlated with more underlying health conditions and general ill health. This means that a poor person who gets the virus is less likely to survive. Add in the healthcare and greater likelihood of infection…
So many factors stack the odds against the poor.
*Boris Johnson praised two specific nurses who watched over him for 48 hours. I couldn’t help but wonder if the average man on the street would have actually got the same care as the PM even in the same hospital. I hope so and am not detracting from our medical staff who do amazing work with restricted resources but I can’t help thinking about it.
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Not necessarily disputing you, and I don’t know how ‘normal’ patients are watched over, but it would have been a national disaster if Boris died regardless of your politics…
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Why?
why a national disaster if Boris died?
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So, if something is wrong, it can be changed and a large majority of the popular sentiment can make the difference as always happened since Ancient Greeks, Roman Empire, French Republic, English Democracy, and US itself (many times).
It is worth noting that Ancient Greece invented Democracy and rhetorics at the same time. That was not a coincidence 
As for the “popular sentiment” is concerned, that can be easily be either diverted or misrepresented.
I sat through a telephone poll by “a nice young lady” once just to test this video out. It is no joke at all. You do not have to “brew” the results. All you have to do is ask the “correct” questions … This is why when you hear about poll results you should always seek the FULL report, if it is an issue of huge interest to you, but that is hardly what that the majority that shapes the “popular sentiment” would do. We see that clearly now with the corona virus and all the mambo jumbo about people blaming “5G and nanomachines in vaccines” 
The majority of people do not have the time or energy (or knowledge or critical thinking) to dig deep in most issues, thus “the perfect balanced sample” is created and the few sceptics are irrelevant in the grand scheme of things
June 1st?
September 1st?
December 1st?
June 1st, a lot of small services will be opened and probably schools as well. Tourism will have floundered though since most people will be unable to travel or unwilling to do so.
September 1st, we will be cooling off after the summer and think that everything went away and we will be back into our old pre-social distancing habits.
December 1st, Round 2 of the coronavirus.
That is my optimistic scenario. 
Somewhere down the line, pride in freedom and democracy turned into opposition to communism, which turned into opposition to socialism, which turned into opposition to social programs by the government.
As long as one term is used as a scarecrow and a population is used in having one, then it is unfortunately very easy to change it periodically to keep people scared/agitated and make them do things that do not make much sense.
For example, the people you refer to are usually the same people that carry guns “to protect their freedom from the government”, but what they do not pause to think is that this is actually the last resort “nuclear option”. In fact, I have some more “comedy” on the matter:
See? Some very reasonable questions (“Why? - Whom? - How?”) that can be asked about the 2nd amendment, but noone is noticing them. Of course they will never use their guns against the government, and even if something that terrible happens and they do rise up, they forgot that the 2nd amendment was written when everyone had muskets. Now governments have tanks, drones and airstrikes. Good luck to the militias competing with their “assault rifles”
But nowadays almost no government is inept enough to totally enrage the whole population in such a fashion. There are many ways to implement “salami tactics” or the “slowly boiling frog” paradigm.
why a national disaster if Boris died?
It is a matter of morale. Imagine a war where even the general is “not safe”, how would the troops feel? They’d think “daaaaamn if they even got the general, we are screwed! What chance do we - the simple troops - have to survive?” even if they had disliked the general. The position a person holds is that matters in these instances or need/crisis. Even if the general is inept and actually his successor is a better choice, the blow to your troops is hard to repair in a reasonable amount of time.
P.S.1
If you pause and think about it, we are still a totemic species, but with slightly higher quality talismans.
Our ancestors in the past had wooden totems that made them feel safe, while we have stacks of papers (bills of rights, thinking that we have some inherent value) or guns (thinking that we can resist) or money (thinking that we can be safe) or technology (thinking that we no longer need totems) and so on and so on …
P.S.2
“So the last resort is also the first response? Is that what you are saying?” - that was masterfully written in the second video.
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I thought this was one of the main things that differentiates intensive care from ‘normal’ care: that the patients are continuously monitored by medical staff 24/7.
This is the thing, I don’t know if all intensive care patients get 1 to 1 care as was implied. I don’t even know if the PM did get that care (maybe the nurses watching over him were also watching other patients). Maybe he got exactly the same care as a homeless person in the next bed. All I meant was it got me wondering if he did get the same care as anyone and everyone else.
This seems a bit strong. People die all the time. There certainly no shortage of politicians ready to step into the role! And most governments have plans for such eventualities. It’s not like the UK would suffer a civil war or some kind of coup or something if the PM died
I’m more concerned about say OGS passing the bus test than the death of most nation’s leaders.
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This confirms the worst scenario that I can only imagine because I’m not living in the US and cannot really understand how the health system works there. In Italy, the public health system ensures cares for everyone: citizens, strangers, including illegal immigrants, nomads, and homeless. Rich people can have access to specialized doctors paying for personal visits avoiding long waiting lists in public hospitals. Time often make a difference for your life, so money also here count. But the doctors are the same working part-time both in public hospitals and in private clinics.
A lot of people here are skeptical about doctors who work only in private sector since it is well known that the experience and the curriculum of a good doctor come only from the experience in public hospitals where he can encounter a broad range of cases related to his specialization.
There are a lot of people that criticize this system because its cost is really high. But I’m so used to this system that I cannot imagine a country where even the citizens are not protected by the national health system if they aren’t rich enough to pay a health assurance.
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Yes, the use of the word ‘disaster’ a little hyperbolic…
However, UK has been in a civil war of sorts for the last 4 years and whatever one’s view on Brexit, Boris or the Tories, Boris and his election victory in December was part of the process of UK moving on from the division of Brexit and then Coronavirus comes along, and the UK Government gets off to a shaky start and then Boris is seemingly at death’s door.
Boris, I think, is bigger than the Tory party and finding someone of his ‘calibre’ within the ranks of Tory MPs to fill his place to lead the UK forward… well…??
Fun fact: In Greece, we pay taxes and also part of our salary goes towards a kind of national insurance organization that handles healthcare and pension (simplified version).
I’ve been a salaried employee almost all my adult life, expect a couple of years I was unemployed and a few years I worked uninsured while I was in university.
A couple years ago I had to get a kind of urgent surgery. I was 36 and I then found out that I could have the surgery for free, because that’s how the system works. Of course I had to pay some stuff here and there not strictly related to the surgery (and the customary envelope to the doctors), but I was SHOCKED (it sounds stupid, but I really never had to learn how it works, I thought my surgery would bankrupt my family). All my life I had the impression that my taxes and salary percentage were basically siphoned into a void and I might see some of it back if and when I got my pension. Yes, it includes waiting lines and a bit of bureaucracy, but I can have yearly bloodwork checkups for free. Follow ups for my surgery for free. Exams, x-rays, whatever, for free. I opt to pay to do some of that because it’s quicker and less hassle, but it’s there. It really made a difference seeing all those people in the hospital, with the same urgency for their health as I had, and know my taxes went towards helping them receive healthcare.
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