Werewolf Game 4: Madness of the Martian Mimics

Forum Games
161

Thank you for your summary, @yebellz!

There’s something I’d like to add:

  • If you are a bodyguard, please do not, under any circumstances, reveal your identity. Like someone (also yebellz?) here stated before, the bodyguards are only useful to protect the detective as soon as we know who they are.
  • @ the detective: please overthink well if and when you want to reveal your identity. This will be most useful after you have found one of the mimics, of course. After identifying an innocent person, it’s not important that you speak up - unless we are about to kill that person otherwise.
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162

I think the bodyguards should conceal their identities for now.

However, once someone claims to be the detective, I think it makes sense for the guards to reveal as well. The guards should anyways die over the following nights, and having them reveal narrows the remaining players for the detective to check. If a person claims to be a bodyguard and does not end up dying before the detective is killed by the mimics, then that would indicate that they were actually a mimic only pretending to be a bodyguard.

If more than two claim to be bodyguards, some of them must be mimics, but we are in no rush to target them, since the real bodyguards will be eliminated over the next couple of nights, while protecting the detective, leaving the mimic(s) revealed.

If multiple people claim to be the detective, we will know that only one can be the true detective and the others should be mimics. We don’t need to be in any rush resolving that either, but should just try to get as much detective claims from both. Ultimately, the real detective will be killed, and confirm their role by showing as innocent at death, so we will learn which revelations to trust, and also have at least another mimic revealed for their ruse.

It is unlikely that the detective will be able to discover all of the mimics before we lose them. Finding the rest will come down to analyzing biases, factions that have formed, voting patterns, and some degree of reading and gut feelings.

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163

In case I get infected with MED or don’t survive this night I’d like to do some math now:
The likelihood that the mimics will murder the detective the first night is 1/11 = 9.09%.
On the first day the detective should only reveal himself if it’s the only way to prevent their execution. They should try to prevent their execution in a different way instead of revealing himself.
With this consideration, one can assume that the probability of his execution is 0.
After the second night the probability depends on if we got lucky with finding one of the mimics.
If we execute a mimic or noone on day 2, the probability for the detective to die in the second night is 1/10 =10%.
If we have bad luck and execute an innocent astronaut on day 2, the probability of the detective to die is 1/9 = 11,1%.
I won’t go on with this because it depends on what information is intentionally or unintentionally disclosed so it is really hard to know whom the information will help. What I want to say is: It is very unlikely the detective to be killed in the first two nights so please stay safe and don’t reveal yourself tomorrow. I didn’t calculate it for day 3, but I think it will probably be a good decision to stay silent about you knowledge then, too.
Hope to see you all tomorrow. :no_mouth:

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Leira, after years and years of habit, wasn’t about to start trusting everyone willy-nilly. In fact, he liked @Gia’s attitude, despite not totally believing it; he would’ve thrown everyone out of the disposal hatch if he could profit from it somehow.

He wasn’t a fool. He knew those mimics could not be bargained with, they were ‘optimizers’, like him, even though he did not know that concept. Right now, he wanted nothing but to survive at all costs, which presented an impossible dilemma: he could only survive if the astronauts survived, but to do that he would have to cooperate even at the expense of self-sacrifice. To him, cooperating was a losing ga-

—Not a losing game! A losers game, stupid narrator!

—What?—said someone else.

—(cough) (cough) NOthInG!

-alright, a “losers game”, happy? As I was saying, he didn’t trust the fact that @fiddlehead had never seen an actual game of Whack-a-Mole. Back in some of the sketchier alleys of Palikir Prime, they were a common sight, among with other money-grubbing machines; he grew up learning how to hack them.

—That guy is probably some rich boy from a gated district—he mumbled to himself—though that doesn’t make him too suspicious.

Of the other alleged astronauts, @Haze_with_a_Z started with a clear attempt to control the conversation; that is conmen 101, and he took note of it. @Sports_for_Life went with the flow of the tide, and didn’t even try to make a convincing explanation. @李建澔2 was erratic, but this seemed to be normal behavior. The rest weren’t giving much out.

—That Lt. @yebellz with his fancy language. He sure could pull up that kind of hustle—he kept mumbling.—He could go either way, so I’ll roll with it. For now.

—And @KAOSkonfused and @RubyMineshaft , what’s their deal? I’ll try to figure it out tomorrow, if I even survive!

So far, @Sports_for_Life was still his top pick.

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The consensus was clear amongst the colonists that killing might not be the best initial course of action, and thus all of them went to bed as the sunset (by definition in the west) forbade the hellishly freezing Martian night.

It is now Night, until 2020-06-11T16:00:00Z. The players with a special role will have to do their night actions, which I will notify them of in a PM.

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2088 Jan 27, 05:49

A loud scream woke up most of the crew this early morning. It was the panicked voice of @Leira who had been snooping around the base suspiciously, and was currently suspended in mid-air in the middle of the central hub.

–PUT ME DOWN AT ONCE! HELP!! SOMEONE!! I CONFESS!! I"M NOT AN ASTRONAUT!!! Oh Mommy, I never wanted to go to this godforsaken planet! I’m just a normal–––

A blinding white flash followed, and gone was @Leira.

The Day phase will now start, and it will last until 2020-06-13T16:00:00Z. I’ve put a link to this post in the top message of this thread, so the poll can be found easily.

Who should be killed today?

  • Haze_with_a_Z
  • Starline
  • Sports_for_Life
  • 李建澔2
  • ginger2008
  • KAOSkonfused
  • HHG
  • Assai
  • yebellz
  • Gia
  • Cool_Person
  • RubyMineshaft
  • fiddlehead
  • nobody

0 voters

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167

:disappointed_relieved::sweat::sob::cry::sob::sweat::disappointed_relieved::sob::cry:

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I’m confused. Wasn’t this MLM enthusiast one of us? I don’t think I’ll miss their fraudulent ways…

We have our first victim of MED. @Sports_for_Life, I hope it doesn’t hurt too much. I’ll make you a tea, dear.

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Well, it wasn’t the most dignified exit Leira could have made, but who are we to judge? Let this stand as a cautionary tale. An innocent person needn’t be likeable or uncontroversial. To solve this mystery we’ll need to set aside a lot of basic assumptions about people and keep our minds open.

Ahhh, poor Sporty. He doesn’t seem to be taking his condition well. But the day is young, and maybe that cup of tea will buck him up a little.

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We need to vote to kill someone today. We have less of a chance at winning if we don’t do so. I hate saying that, but it is true.

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171

I believe @Leira’s dying confession was that he was a conman, while still human (“just a normal”) and not a mimic, but not a qualified astronaut like the rest of us.

It would not make any sense for the mimics to eliminate one of their own, and I think we would have seen something else had that been the case.

I had my doubts about @Leira, and maybe others did as well. Given his innocence, it might have been wise for the mimics to have kept him around. However, perhaps he may have been onto something, which the mimics wished to silence.

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Good catch about our MED’d friend being the departed’s prime suspect.

Also, I thought that Leira maybe was a bodyguard, so not a qualified astronaut, and they died protecting someone else. If so, is it good (I’m sorry to say something so vile just after a person’s death, but it is what it is) for us that they eventually eliminated (by proxy) one of our suspects?

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:roll_eyes: :nauseated_face: :face_vomiting: :sneezing_face: :face_with_thermometer: :mask:

:two: :interrobang:
:soccer: :basketball: :tennis: :ping_pong: :boxing_glove: :question:

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Oh no, we might already have to choose one of our own to kill today. Mimics are forcing our hand.
One of the MΕD-inflicted is the enemy, right?
I don’t want to pick one yet. :frowning:
But I’ll make two teas anyway.

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175

:coffee::coffee::coffee::coffee::partying_face:

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176

I think that sports is pretending to be cursed, which I really don’t see a point in them doing. If they aren’t faking, Assai is. I think one of them is a mimic.

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177

Guilty or innocent, looks like Sporty’s really getting into that tea. It’s very important to stay well hydrated.

I considered the possibility that his first outburst was just absent -mindedness, but I guess we can toss that theory now.

So it seems that either Sporty or Assai is a Martian, and my money’s on Sporty. But let’s talk this over. One way or another, it seems our task just got a lot easier.

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I’m assuming the MED can affect both mimics and humans with equal likelihood, otherwise, it would provide a too easy way to confirm an innocent each day. Also, I believe MED should only afflict one individual per day, so one of them must be faking it.

Perhaps, the faker is indeed a mimic, but that’s just a terrible idea isn’t it. Then again, I guess it’s even dumber for an innocent to distract us with this question by faking it.

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:smoking: :arrow_right: :crazy_face: :dizzy_face: :hamburger: :fries: :pizza: :exploding_head: :sleeping:

:violin: :man:

:bell: :bell:

:question: :game_die: :man:

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180

That’s what I gathered as well, we have to choose.