You have a point there. I was thinking that the protector would have protected himself the first night, but that doesn’t need to be the case like you say.
Current state of the vote
- Roy (@syoon) voting to kill Hazel (@Haze_with_a_Z)
- Marlon (@Gia) voting to kill Nobody
- Vagabond (@李建澔2) has not yet voted
- Everyone else (8 votes) voting to kill Roy (@syoon)
We are currently in Day 3
Assuming that Roy (@syoon) is eliminated by vote today, that will be the first elimination, which will reduce us to 10 people
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I won’t be able to be online right before the night comes down, so I’ll summarize here again what I personally wish to happen next:
- @ everybody: I am for killing Roy / syoon today, because I am sure he is a snatcher. Please don’t let him convince you to kill anyone else. Please don’t change your vote.
-
@kingkaio / Maze: Please use your potion tonight to kill Vagabond, as this is what most of us voted fore. Don’t let Marlon / Gia convice you to kill her instead, because that would be a mistake - if you kill Gia at the same time as Leira is also inspecting her, this would be a wasted night for the oracle. (and also, it’s fun to have Marlon around for a little longer
) - @Leira / James: Please investigate Marlon / Gia tonight. I find them highly suspicious.
- @ the unknown protector: Please protect Leira / James - we need him to survive!
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At the end of day 3, assuming that Roy is killed by vote today, we will have 10 people left.
A lot of the earlier analysis is assuming that 4 of these people are publicly confirmed (with relatively high confidence) as innocent:
- James (@Leira), for claiming to be the Oracle (and people generally disbelieving the only counter-claim by Roy)
- Butch (@Vsotvep), for being claimed to be innocent by both James and Roy
- Bellz (@yebellz), for being claimed to be innocent by James
- Maze (@kingkaio), for making an uncontested claim to be the Witch
Note: if the Witch claim by Maze is false, the real Witch should kill Maze tonight.
The leaves us with 6 suspects, out of which 2 are Snatchers:
- Marlon (@Gia)
- Kayo (@KAOSkonfused)
- Hazel (@Haze_with_a_Z)
- V. Solis (@Sanonius)
- Papa Roheas (@papavero)
- Vagabond (@李建澔2)
It seems that given these assumptions, we don’t have absolute certainty of being able to force a win under the worst case. However, James may survive Night 4, which should happen if we are lucky with the protector surviving Night 3, so I think we are still in very good shape.
Nights 3 and 4 are crucial and we’ll have to see how it turns out. I think the good news is that at every turn, the Snatchers will have to guess correctly and we’ll have to guess incorrectly in order for the Snatchers to win. Even though the game could still go either way, I think we definitely have the much favorable position.
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Too bad you ain’t the investigator, hun. I could give you clues until breakfast. wink
BTW, where is Butch? And I don’t mean Butch’s analytical mind, I mean actual Butch.
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James thinks Butch is curving a statue.
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Hazel had given up on waiting in the cave…
It was late and she was tired of waiting for Maze to come. Maze had given her letters, but never actually showed up in the cave. She really hoped Maze was ok as she hurried back to the camp to find him.
I think that if the snatchers just don’t kill the oracle we win.
some of my sorting:
4-6(now)
4-4(after night guess)
4-3(after day guess)
3-2(another night guess)
3-1(after this day we have 1 suspect and 3 innocents so it is pretty clear the next morning)
this is rushed but im sending it now cause time is basically up
End of Day 3
Once the group came to a decision, James went to the cabin to tell Sapphire. He knocked on the door and waited. After several minutes, the door opened revealing Sapphire with her towel and sunglasses from morning.
James told her everything that had just transpired:
…
… …
…
… …
…
Sapphire gave him a flat stare, and turned to the group:
She hobbled back into the cabin and returned a few moments later carrying the Stone Eater box, which contained the one remaining talisman, and donning a pair of leather gloves. She opened the box, lifted the remaining talisman out in her gloved hand, and touched it to the exposed skin on Roy’s arm.
The color instantly faded from Roy’s body, and he went limp.
@syoon has been eliminated.
No win conditions have been met, so the night phase begins now and will continue until 2020-09-13T16:00:00Z.
I will be in contact with players bearing special roles via PM to get their decisions. Discussion in the game thread is not allowed during the night phase.
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Start of Day 4
Day broke. The hunters awoke to a much more chipper Sapphire moving about the camp and preparing breakfast for the hunting party, all the while humming the melody to some song she heard in town when she went for supplies.
“Good morning, Sapphire. You seem to be feeling better today,” remarked a member of the party.
She pointed at the bodies of Butch and Vagabond, which had been propped against a tree.
@Vsotvep and @李建澔2 have been eliminated.
The day phase begins now and will continue until 2020-09-15T16:00:00Z
Who should be executed today?
- yebellz
- KAOSkonfused
- kingkaio
- Leira
- Gia
- Haze_with_a_Z
- papavero
- Sanonius
- Nobody
0
voters
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Wait what.
I’m sorry for the deads and all, but why wouldn’t the snatchers snatch the witch if Hazel is innocent? Two lovebirds with one stone.
I’m starting to think Hazel is a snatcher (again).
Welp, that seems to have gone according to plan, for the most part.
I was wondering if snatchers would try to make a guess on the Protector first or go after Hazel+Maze Lander first. I don’t think it makes a difference for them when they try to snipe the two lovers, as they can always do it at a later turn.
Also, wow! Emoji disease is so ridiculously tiring!!!
James woke up quite satisfied with his nightly investigations. He also started making a turn for better after the night set in, and was no longer feeling voiceless.
He was feeling more appreciative of the two professors (@yebellz @Sanonius ) after all their efforts to translate for him, when he was on a pickle. More than anything, James was glad that he no longer had to keep frantically pointing at his buttocks in order to get a conjunction across. Even Marlon (@Gia ), the ever annoying pick-up artist, had tried to help.
—Rise and shine, my friends! I’ve got news.
Everyone was trying to enjoy the last minutes of darkness.
—Professor Bellz, wake up! I’m sorry I didn’t recognize you before. I truly enjoy your books, and that movie “Mystical Monsters and How to encounter them” is totally not a rip-off; I don’t care what the lawsuit says. Wyrm Salamander is my favorite autistic hero.
Everyone watched on expectantly
—Oh, yes! The news! Guess who is a snatcher…?
Infuriating pause
—So, yeah, it’s Papa Roheas (@papavero )
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Because Butch was one of, if not the most helpful person around, always on the heels of the snatchers [is that even an English expression?], and they knew it…
She shakes her head in sadness.
Also, there was no doubt about his innocence, so it is just logical that the snatchers would kill him and hope to cause confusion and make us question each other.
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Well, that too, always leave a shadow of doubt behind.
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Well, that’s sad. Hmmm yes keeping the lovers and Hazel alive may also be a way make us think that Hazel is one of them. And the witch is no threat to them anymore. We need to be wary, they might target anybody now.
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Why did you inspect Papa Roheas? What gave you the idea he might be a snatcher?
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Maybe because they were not so active, floating along without giving much input? Kayo, are you hesitant to kill them?
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Well, @Gia was an obvious choice, to be honest. However, her behavior doesn’t seem too off, so to speak.
Basically, the snatchers went for a daredevil YOLO strategy (yes, I said YOLO, no regrets). I wondered who would be in for such a thing. I’ve seen most of you guys play before, but never @papavero or @Sanonius. So it was just luck I guess.
EDIT: Also, I reckoned if that investigation failed, Gia would probably be targeted anyway.
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Well, that’s a point.
But to be honest, I still find Marlon / Gia suspicious. I mean, his first thing to say this morning being an accusation of Hazel… That’s odd.
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