Of course we need to find the best way to proceed, old money doesn’t come from thin air, someone had to make the killings at some point.
But I’d like to progress all the aspects of the game without trying to solve 13x13 in the process, necessarily.
(also, kinda all that math and calculations are above my grade, so)
I think we should focus on getting at least one of the stones I mentioned out of the way, as in find out who dies, but not losing view of the whole board in the process. Otherwise, we’ll end up with a neatly solved, perfect-information nice little corner and… nothing else.
I have consulted the stars and I’m afraid the time of peacefully seeking wisdom is over. It is hard to see, but under the disguise of the full moon Perseus has launched his attack on Cetus.
In the upper left lives team white, bright as the full moon, but they also have a stronghold in the lower right. Cetus lives in the upper right, this leaves the top and the right side for team white to strike. Figuring out whether I’m Cetus and Richard XLII is Mars or the other way round is crucial to correctly predict the upcoming attack. I don’t have a hint that is as strong as I’d want it, but as I’m the one who is forced to take action now, I think I’m supposed to be Mars, the god of war. So Richard XLII is Cetus and according to the Hermit’s analysis, Cetus is not a sea-monster, but a friendly whale after all.
Thus—instead of reducing white’s potential on the right side—I’ll follow the Hermit’s suggestion and I’ll move to F11 in order to try to stop the attack preemptively.
I didn’t ignore them. Logic puzzles are fun, but as I said, I think we don’t have the time to just play for gain of information. Team white is prepared to strike:
Edit: Aaah, now I understand. I thought yebellz said “don’t move yet”, and Jon did a Leeroy Jenkins in spite of that, but it was just a collision of posts at the same time and the move had been proposed earlier.
Astrologer @Jon_Ko. It seems that you trust the numbers. I do think it is extremely likely that we are on the same team. Moreover, after this move, it seems even more likely.
I’ll give you a card reading (coming soon) once I’ve cleared my ideas. I will say this: If you are a settler-believer, which is the most likely explanation from my perspective, it is extremely, extremely unlikely that you are amnesiac.
Therefore, if you are a settler-believer, please don’t interfere with @yebellz 's territory. If he comes after you and approaches your settlements, let it be. I won’t tell you how to play your game, or whether to follow one plan or another, but think of yebellz’s houses as if they were your own. Because, in a way, they are.
You should defend yourself against Team White’s attacks though. If you were on their team, you’d probably know it.
I’m curious as to what was the sequence you were envisioning.
At this point, if @NeilAgg makes the throw-in there are two scenarios:
There is a capture and we’re done with Question 1.
There is no capture. That means that NeilAgg is on Team Black. If then @richyfourtytwo plays L12 we’d gain another clue. Either @Gia’s stone is captured or it isn’t. If captured, then Gia is Team White, if not, she’s Team Black, because there is no way richiefourtytwo was also on Team White to save that stone.
I appreciate the dedication and diligence, but getting one move after 80 posts and three statistics textbooks… I’m getting worn out.
I needed to share even though I haven’t caught up yet, because I’ve got to make dinner
If @richyfourtytwo is captured, then we would know that @Gia, @Jon_Ko, and @NeilAgg are all on the same team, which must be Black, and @richyfourtytwo would be on Team White. That hypothetical outcome would resolve everyone’s team (4 vs 4) except for mine, and we would be done.
Hence, let’s continue only considering if @richyfourtytwo were not captured. Then, we would know that @richyfourtytwo was on the same team as at least one of the people surrounding, and they both cannot be on Team White, so hence @richyfourtytwo must be on Team Black.
If @Vsotvep is captured, then we know that @Gia and @Jon_Ko are also on Team Black, along with @richyfourtytwo established earlier, and the remaining player @NeilAgg must be on Team White. This hypothetical also finishes resolving everyone’s team except for mine.
Hence, let’s continue only considering if @Vsotvep was not captured. In that case, either @Gia and @Jon_Ko must be on Team White, but not both of them (since there cannot be five players on Team White without me), and further, @richyfourtytwo and @NeilAgg must be on Team Black. Then, the only thing left to disambiguate are the teams of @Gia and @Jon_Ko, which could be done by test capturing J11 or M11.
Well, of course everyone is claiming to be a settler-believer.
No, but we do need to determine whether yebellz is a member of team White. Or at least, I want either that confirmed, or one of you or MystWalker claiming to be a rebel.
If we are indeed settlers, then it is likely that both the amnesiac and a settler are out there not knowing whether to support us or to support the other team (since the chance of being either is 50/50). With bad luck, we end up having both of them working against us.
With only three of us working “alone”, potentially together with yebellz , we’d still have a minority. Taking the aggressive expansionist route also puts pressure on the remaining players to take a side, like Jon Ko just went full ahead with, taking side presumably against our team.
And @Jon_Ko rather just went with an off-hand remark made by @Leira, which I think was just signalling between to aware Rebels.
There are clearly different schools of thought about how we proceed. I want to remove ambiguity, which won’t take many more moves, yet others wish to plow ahead with uncertainty. Of course, those that are already certain, on account of being rebels, will find no trouble in the latter approach.
If keep uncertainty, then we’re left to go with our gut feelings. I’ve been suspicious of @Leira from the very beginning, for many reasons reinforced over and over, and the ease with which @Jon_Ko jumps on board to follow, with complete disregard to considering how to reduce uncertainty gives me the strong belief that both of them are Rebels.
My gut feeling and judgement is that Team White are the Settlers, and hence I will be fully supporting them under that firm belief. If others want to change my mind, you’ll have to do so with definitive proof, from moves on the board. The onus should be on Team Black to prove to me otherwise.
@Vsotvep, @Barbanaira, @MystWalker, what do you think is our best course of action to both limit Team Black, while also working toward reducing the remaining uncertainty? I’ll let you guide my moves to best serve the interests of Team White. I believe that we are facing a situation like this (using secondary colors to show alignments):
Some things I suspect due to Jon Ko moving at F11:
Once again a player plays a move without reaching consensus with the rest. It is suspicious and reinforces my suspicion that team Black is rebel.
Jon Ko seems to value Leira’s arguments over those of yebellz and mine . Although viewing my suggestions with suspicion is arguably possible for settlers, ignoring yebellz’ suggestions is just raising suspicion.
Under the hypothesis that Leira is rebel-believer and that Leira’s plan has malicious intention, the suggestion of Jon Ko playing F11 is likely a good rebel move, which both of them are aware of. The most likely reason for it being a good rebel move, is if richyfourtytwo is team White. Combining this with the Naive Richard Hypothesis, it is extra evidence for @richyfourtytwo being the last member of team White.
Assuming that @NeilAgg is willing to throw-in at L10 and is not captured, and @richyfourtytwo follows the plan as well, then I guess we’d have one of these two scenarios (plus a move somewhere):
Hahaha there is no pleasing you. Do you want NeilAgg to throw-in or not? Wasn’t it like some sort of logic puzzle? I was just giving a 3 turn solution
Make whatever continuation you please, though I assure you, you’ll be surprised with the result.
Edit: You already decided that I am rebel, so, I won’t propose anything anymore, not to you anyway. You say the onus is this and that to prove this or that. You’re mistaken though. You are a member of one team and you don’t know which, you can very easily make a decision that hurts your own interests. I’m reasonably confident at this point that you’re an unwilling member of Team Black, which, to be totally honest, I find quite hilarious.
Where would you play? I’m only willing to play L13 if it is a decent point to play for both teams, which it probably is, but that may depend on where your stone goes.
is Mars or the other way round is crucial to correctly predict the upcoming attack. I don’t have a hint that is as strong as I’d want it, but as I’m the one who is forced to take action now, I think I’m supposed to be Mars, the god of war. So Richard XLII is Cetus and according to the Hermit’s analysis, Cetus is not a sea-monster, but a friendly whale after all.
.
yebellz said “don’t move yet”, and 
Jon did a Leeroy Jenkins in spite of that, but it was just a collision of posts at the same time and the move had been proposed earlier.
territory. If he comes after you and approaches your settlements, let it be. I won’t tell you how to play your game, or whether to follow one plan or another, but think of yebellz’s houses as if they were your own. Because, in a way, they are.
stone is captured or it isn’t. If captured, then Gia 
would play L10
or MystWalker 
claiming to be a rebel.
just went full ahead with, taking side presumably against our team.
from the very beginning, for many reasons reinforced over and over, and the ease with which 
arguments over those of yebellz 
is team White. Combining this with the Naive Richard Hypothesis, it is extra evidence for 
playing L13 are good ideas, yes.