Yes, I’m just not sure it helps the settlers more than the rebels, anyway the moon has passed the sun, we’ll see how things evolve now.
1 Like
(Thank you for your patience, this week has been a lot.)
Hewwo evewyone!! It’s so wondewfuw to be hewe wiff aww of you as neighbows. :>
Wet’s aww be fwiends and wowk on making this wand beautifuw togethew!
…except fow deh webews. If dey’re not going to be nice. :<
I’ll hewp you make dis cownew a home @Vsotvep! Whadda you say? : D
Mystwalker plays "C9"
It is now @yebellz turn
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“My closest neighbour appears to be dim-witted! What a blessing! There are no easier customers than these inbreeding nobles, lots of cash, little brains” thought the Merchant to himself
Welcome my friend, if you ever are in need of supplies I will guarantee that you can’t find a shaper price than by asking me. Let me offer you a delicious cup of my highly priced, ahum, pardon me, I meant to say highly prized tea, imported from the distant lands in the far east. I can assure you that this tastes like liquid gold, figuratively speaking, of course, of course
6 Likes
Sorry for the delay. I want to make a longer post later about strategy later, and hence make my move after that.
In the meantime, I think it is very important that everyone confirm that they have seen that I have revealed my role as the Spy. This implies that I am on the Settler team. I think everyone would agree that it is not wise for any non-spy settler to falsely claim as the settler, which makes the only possibilities are that I am telling the truth as the actual Spy, or am I a rebel falsely claiming. If the latter were the case, then I think everyone would agree that it would be a very good idea for the real Spy to reveal in order to discover that one of two people must be a rebel.
I’ll post more about all of this and other reasoning later, but in the meantime, please respond to this poll.
- I am the Spy
- I am not the Spy
0 voters
1 Like
By the way, we have not heard very much from @Leira, @Barbanaira, or @MystWalker in this game. I really hope that they could provide a bit more input on how they feel the settlers could best increase their chances of winning, and crucially, I hope that they acknowledge my reveal. It is important that everyone has a chance to refute such a big claim.
Also, I think we’ve heard surprisingly little from @Vsotvep. I would have expected a bit more analysis and strategic input from him.
5 Likes
Fray Xavier approached the hut after receiving the message from the scout. Inside, the Hermit was doing some reading and writing notes on small pieces of parchment.
On one corner, there was a exquisitely crafted table (Sor Juana truly had a penchant for handiwork) with a large square map of the newly discovered lands. A handful of colorful pebbles marked the locations of the recent settlements.
Leira made a dismissive gesture.
Leira stood up, and gave Fray Xavier a reassuring pat on the shoulder. He pointed at the map, were there was one colored stone still missing.Leira acknowledged calmly, and proceeded to wax seal a piece of parchment to give back to the scout.
Sealed message
"Brazenly irresponsible moves require not my presence in Court.
The Order of the Aguas Calmas de la Santa María will refrain participation in this plebiscite, sanctioned by an authority different to that of Her Majesty’s.
L.t.H."
3 Likes
I have little to work with, and already given my stance on strategy:
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Let me share my strategic thoughts.
This is effectively a two-team game, with 5 settlers against 4 rebels. The only catch is that there is uncertainty about who is on which team.
First, let’s imagine if we were hypothetically playing this same game, but with the affiliation of all of the players simply revealed at the start. The choice of komi gives the expectation that the 5 settlers should manage to control about 5/9 of the board. However, I think that if we started with perfect knowledge of the team memberships, we would actually have an advantage for the sake that, in each round, we are playing an extra stone and could perhaps use to gain an advantage to make territory even more efficiently than just the expected 5/9 rate.
Of course, we did not start with such knowledge, but instead, the rebels were given some partial and uncertain knowledge of their team, which gives them an initial edge, since they can subtly use that information to gain an edge by giving each other more room to develop, while trying to subtly crowd out the settlers.
I have revealed to be the Spy. Staying hidden might have caused some degree of confusion to the rebels, however, I think the benefits of possibly confirming that I am a settler outweighs the loss of giving the rebels a little bit more information as well. On the other hand, they still have to deal with the uncertainty of the amnesiac. Unlike regular games of werewolf, there’s no elimination, so revealing as the spy does not put any target on my back.
The value of having a confirmed settler is that we could consider two things:
- Possibly using that knowledge to confirm other settlers. Players that do not get captured by my stones should also be settlers.
- Give the confirmed settlers an oversized share of the board since it would help our team to win.
Of course, whether you believe my claim rests on whether any one else makes a counter claim. So, it’s really important that everyone is present and has had a chance to refute my claim. In the off chance that a rebel does choose refute my claim, then that helps us as well, since now we have narrowed down one of the rebels to either me or that person.
By the way, I think it is a terrible idea for a regular settler to falsely claim as the spy. It does nothing to help us, since the rebels already know the set of 5 players that consist of the 4 rebels and 1 spy. Hence, they already know that I am telling the truth as being the spy, and a regular settler falsely claiming to be the spy is not going to fool them, and only serve to confuse the settlers.
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Note that if you believe that I’m the Spy (and hence a confirmed settler), the settlers could easily win if everyone agrees to simply let me control over 5/9 of the board, while everyone else plays small, inefficient moves.
What does everyone think of that?
1 Like
I agree with your assessment. If nobody else will come out claiming to be a spy, then you’re most likely the spy indeed.
If so, we could all agree to continuously pass until the viscount @yebellz has combed through the lands, eliminating any potential place for rebels to settle. Once the majority has been confiscated, we can happily live under @yebellz’ vassalage knowing that no rebels will ransack our shops and monasteries or besiege our castles.
However, I feel that the rebels won’t be twiddling their thumbs watching their treacherous efforts be crumbled by lack of initiative. Therefore, we can reasonably expect yebellz to face at least 2, if not 3 opponents who will ignore the call to inaction. Clearly the viscount on his own does not have the military might to fend off a rebel attack from multiple directions.
Thus, I expect that a promise to pass will only lead to the discovery of one rebel, maybe two, at the cost of potentially having every settler skip a valuable early turn. Hypothetically, if it turns out that the rebels are composed of richyfortytwo, Gia and MystWalker, we would end up with basically giving the rebels three extra turns for free.
I am therefore hesitant if passive play is truly the best option for the settlers and hold my ground that I believe everyone should create a stronghold for themself, without being too aggressive or expansionist about it.
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I suggest that everyone else builds small. Maybe leave a loose stone or two here and there, and let me try to gobble it up a long the way. If some players try to be too greedy, then maybe they are rebels, and perhaps try to fight them?
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Here is a less passive plan of action. Each of us will move fast and efficiently to claim an area with three eyes. We decide beforehand what area we will claim to avoid disputes about this.
Once that has happened, we create an order of players randomly (in order to avoid manipulation) with the condition that yebellz is last. Each player will throw a stone in the eye of the next player in the list. Stones that disappear will lead to the conclusion that the players are of different teams, stones that stay will mean the players are on the same team.
If we can be certain that yebellz is the spy, this is enough to determine the alignment of all players. Let’s review this hypothetically. We could for example try to reach this position (where I attempted to give people some extra outside liberties, just in case, and especially keep yebellz floating rather freely; we should probably make a more careful distribution that limits the ability of players to close of large parts of territory after the “reveal”):
Suppose the randomly generated list turns out to be:
- MystWalker
- richyfortytwo
- Jon Ko
- Barbanaira
- Vsotvep
- Leira
- Gia
- NeilAgg
- yebellz
Then suppose that richyfortytwo, Vsotvep, Leira and NeilAgg are rebels / amnesiacs (just to illustrate a point), then after each player has thrown in their stone, we get the following information:
| MystWalker | richyfortytwo | different teams |
| richyfortytwo | Jon Ko | different teams |
| Jon Ko | Barbanaira | same team |
| Barbanaira | Vsotvep | different teams |
| Vsotvep | Leira | same team |
| Leira | Gia | different teams |
| Gia | NeilAgg | different teams |
| NeilAgg | yebellz | different teams. |
Since we know yebellz is a settler, we can deduce backwards that it follows that NeilAgg is a rebel, Gia is a settler, Leira is a rebel, Vsotvep is a rebel, Barbanaira is a settler, Jon Ko is a settler, richyfortytwo is a rebel and MystWalker is a settler.
After this, the settlers have a clear advantage, since they can work together in expanding all of the settler areas. I believe the extra moves are more powerful than the komi will ever be, and since the area around yebellz is largely free to expand into, this should more or less guarantee a settler victory.
Note that the rebels likely don’t want to throw in their stones, thus anybody refusing to do so can be automatically labelled a rebel.
4 Likes
Nice one. But why do we need 3 eyes? Shouldn’t pass-alive be enough?
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Ah, I get it, it’s because the throw in might fill an eye.
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In fact, even if we don’t have certainty about yebellz, we can just count players to find out which team is which.
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OK, I’ll claim that Vsotvep has found a strategy that gives the settlers a clear edge. If you are a settler and agree, you should make moves consistent with the plan given. If you are a settler and disagree, you should voice your doubts before moving, so we can find out in discussion if your doubts are valid. If you silently ignore the plan, all other settlers will be fairly sure you are a rebel, which is not in your interest.
We can now expect rebels to come up with half-baked arguments why the plan is bad. That will give us another fun way of identifying them.
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Well, here’s a problem I should have anticipated: I’m a settler but don’t know how to live in the corner. 
I’ll try to create Vsotvep’s shape and not get in any dangerous initiatives on my own. Anyone who takes any of my spots, I’ll consider them an enemy rebel immediately.
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That’s the nice thing, we can just follow the plan literally with the shapes suggested. As you plan to do.
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Look, I slept through most of the military academy except for fencing school, so you won’t hear great strategic assestments from me. Usually I would run at the rebels with my sabre and slice them good, while twirling my moustache with the left hand.
@Vsotvep’s plan is sound. He has proven to be a brilliant strategist, and gentleman-scholar in the past, and I trust him.
However, I’m not sure if this is the kind of game I want to play. After the teams are established, there is space for maybe one more round of playing and then we can go to counting and scoring. Where is the thrill, the backstabbing, the monkey jumps and throw-ins?
3 Likes